Premier League Opta Stats Betting: Boost Arsenal to 10/11 v Everton and back 100/1 Manchester derby goalscorer | OneFootball

English Premier League

Manchester City have won five of their last six Premier League games against Manchester United (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 (W4 D3 L6).

After a weekend hiatus, Alex Boyes is back in the saddle for 10 more Opta stat related bets ahead of this weekend's Premier League action, including a huge 100/1 tip in the Manchester derby on Sunday...

Arsenal v Everton

How to make Arsenal backable

The Opta Stat:

"Everton have failed to score in each of their last three away Premier League matches, attempting 42 shots with an xG of 3.26 without success and are the only side without an away goal since the start of November. They last went four in a row without a goal across October/November 2022."

The Betfair Bet:

Liverpool v Fulham

Reds can go one better at Anfield

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in each of their last seven Premier League games, last having a longer such run between September and December 2021 (11 in a row). The Reds have scored 76 goals in 33 games in 2024, their second-best average goals per game in a year (2.3) in the Premier League era, scoring at a rate of 2.38 goals per game in 2019 (88 in 37 games)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back over 2.5 Liverpool goals @ 11/10

Newcastle v Leicester

Ain't no party like a Vardy party

The Opta Stat:

"Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances (4 goals, 3 assists), including at least one in his last three; Vardy could become the oldest player to score or assist in four consecutive Premier League appearances if he does so in this game."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Jamie Vardy to score anytime @ 16/5

Wolves v Ipswich

O'Neil to save his skin vs soft Tractor Boys

The Opta Stat:

"No side has dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League this season than Ipswich Town (15), while only Brentford (4) have lost more games when scoring first than the Tractor Boys (3). Indeed, Ipswich Town have lost their last three league games, their second run of three defeats in a row this season having never lost consecutive games under Kieran McKenna before this campaign. The Tractor Boys last suffered four defeats in a row in March 2020 in League One."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Ipswich/Wolves in the HT/FT market @ 20/1

Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa

Can we go after Forest due to Villa European nights?

The Opta Stat:

"Aston Villa have lost each of their last three away league games, their longest such run since losing four in a row from May to August 2022. All three defeats in their current spell have been by 2+ goals - the Villans last lost more in succession by such a margin on the road in the league in September 1968 as a second-tier side (5). Indeed, Villa have only won one of their five Premier League matches this season that have immediately followed a Champions League midweek (D2 L2)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Nottingham Forest (-1) to beat Aston Villa @ 4/1

Brighton v Crystal Palace

Back goals in M23 derby

The Opta Stat:

"Under Oliver Glasner, Crystal Palace have scored first and then gone on to concede 2+ goals in seven Premier League games, including four of the six games they've scored first in this season. Since his first game in charge on February 24, only Chelsea have done so as often (also seven)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Brighton to win & BTTS @ 12/5

Man City v Man United

Gvardiol is the key to biggest bet of the season

The Opta Stat:

"39% of Man Utd's goals conceded in the Premier League this season have come from corner situations (7/18), the highest share in the division. So far in 2024, they've conceded 15 goals from corners, just three fewer than they did in 2021 (8), 2022 (4) and 2023 (6) combined. On the other hand, only Erling Haaland has scored more goals that Joško Gvardiol (3) for Man City this season, with the Croatian defender averaging 1.6 shots per 90 in the Premier League, the third most of all defenders and he has also had at least one shot in 15 of 18 appearances this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Chelsea v Brentford

Brentford's relegation away vs highest scorers

The Opta Stat:

"Brentford have scored 31 and conceded 28 goals in the Premier League this season and come up against the top scorers in the Premier League in Chelsea (35). Indeed, should they concede twice against Chelsea, they will be just the second side to reach both 30 goals scored and conceded in their opening 16 matches of a season in the competition, after Leeds United in 2020-21. However, Bryan Mbeumo has scored nine Premier League goals for Brentford this season, his joint-most in a single campaign (also 9 in both 2022-23 and 2023-24)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bryan Mbeumo to score in a Chelsea win @ 5/1

Southampton v Tottenham

Are Spurs the perfect opponent for Saints?

The Opta Stat:

"In their first 11 Premier League games this season, Tottenham faced an average of just 9.6 shots and 3.4 shots on target per game. In their last four, they've faced 18.8 shots and 6.8 shots on target per game."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Southampton to have 6 or more shots on target @ 17/10

Bournemouth v West Ham

Is this the ground to profit from unders?

The Opta Stat:

"Bournemouth have won four of their last five home Premier League games (L1) with those victories coming against Tottenham, Manchester City, Arsenal and Southampton. However, the Vitality Stadium has seen just 16 goals this season (F10, A6), with only the City Ground (14) seeing fewer in the competition this term."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 7/5

Opta Stats P/L 2024-25 -

(Recommended bet(s) of the week)

Stake: 25ptsReturn: 60.55P/L: +35.55ROI: +142%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 135ptsReturn: 150.96P/L: +15.56ROI: +12%

Now read more of today's best tips and previews here!

Recommended bets

Back Back Arsenal to win to nil (v Everton) @ 10/11

Back Joško Gvardiol to score 2 or more goals @ 100/1