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·31 de diciembre de 2024

Premier League – Crucible Report Card

The crucible molds.The crucible melts.The crucible defines.The crucible separates the base metals from precious metals.

The crucible is that period of the Premier League in which teams play five games from December 7th through the end of the year. For some clubs with European commitments, it can mean up to seven games.

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We’re not saying that the title is decided during this month, but a team’s performance under this intense pressure can serve as a gauge of how they react during the final fixtures of the season. Below we (well, just myself) grade all twenty clubs on their performance during this critical stretch of the season.

Winners

Nottingham Forest PL Form: WWWWW Pre-crucible postion: 7th Post-crucible position: 2nd A perfect 5-0. A five point climb in the standings. Forest were simply awesome and emerge from the crucible tempered and shiny. An enterprising punter with a spare quid or two would have earned quite a payout if they’d laid a book on Forest ending in the top half, even more if they’d played for top-fifth. Ah, hindsight!
Liverpool PL Form: DWWW Pre-crucible postion: 1st Post-crucible position: 1st Other: Wins in the Champions League (1-0 over Girona) and the Carabao Cup (2-1 over Southampton) It wasn’t perfect for the leaders, but their draw vs. Fulham was as close to a win as you can get, playing with 10 men for nearly an hour. And seriously, anyone with an ounce of soccer intelligence recognizes that Liverpool are in the driver’s seat going into 2025. They also played one less game as their derby vs. Everton was postponed.
Newcastle United PL Form: LWWWW Pre-crucible postion: 12th Post-crucible position: 5th Other: Win in the Carabao Cup (3-1 over Brentford) Nobody is more surprised to see Newcastle here than I am, particularly after than rocky stretch they had in Oct/Nov. But facts are facts, and despite that early 4-2 league loss to Brentford (which they revenged only a few nights later) the Magpies were flawless: 16 goals for; 1 against.
Woverhampton Wanderers Form: LLWWD Pre-crucible postion: 19th Post-crucible position: 17th They scrapped their manager in the middle of the crucible and it had immediate result, with two wins (home and away). Then there was today’s gutsy draw against Spurs. They now sit above relegation, if only by a sliver. Keep it up, Wolves.

Kinda Winners?

Everton PL Form: WDDDL Pre-crucible postion: 15th Post-crucible position: 16th On paper, this form isn’t so impressive. But context is king, and their three straight draws came against Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester City. That’s damned impressive for a team that has flirted with relegation the past two seasons.
Bournemouth PL Form: WDWDD Pre-crucible postion: 9th Post-crucible position: 7th If Nottingham Forest did not exist, everyone would be talking about Bournemouth. They capped a solid start with an undefeated run during the crucible, and climbed up two spots to sit at 7th. The Cherries are definitely more winners than meh.
Crystal Palace PL Form: DWLDW Pre-crucible postion: 17th Post-crucible position: 15th Other: Lost in the Carabao Cup (3-2 to Gabriel Jesus, er, Arsenal) They won their derby against Brighton, and took a point from Man City. The win over Southampton was expected, and the draw against Bournemouth (despite being an affront to enjoyable soccer) was just fine. The combined 8-3 loss margins to Arsenal stung, but the end result is Palace climber two spots above the relegation zone.
Ipswich Town PL Form: LWLLW Pre-crucible postion: 18th Post-crucible position: 18th On paper, 6 out of 15 points isn’t great. But each loss came by a single goal, and those two wins were HUGE (incl. their first home victory where they utterly owned Chelsea). Emotionally, Ipswich are on the ascendency. Now they have to keep that momentum.

Solidly Meh

Arsenal PL Form: DDWW Pre-crucible postion: 3rd Post-crucible position: 3rd Other: Wins in the Champions League (3-0 over Monaco) and the Carabao Cup (3-2 over Crystal Palace) Technically, the Gunners did better during the crucible than most, but that execrable draw to Everton knocks them down a peg. Yeah, they also whooped Palace’s ass. Twice. So maybe I’m sore. But these guys are meh.
Fulham PL Form: DDDWD Pre-crucible postion: 6th Post-crucible position: 8th On the plus… they are undefeated On the minus… 4 draws isn’t great, even if three of them were to teams above them in the tables. And they did drop two places in the standings. Pure meh.
Aston Villa PL Form: WLWLD Pre-crucible postion: 8th Post-crucible position: 9th Other: Win in the Champions League (3-2 over Red Bull Leipzig) Fewer teams have been as inconsistent as Villa. That victory over City? Stupendous. Over Southampton? Expected. In between they suffer stinging losses to Forest and Newcastle. Today they draw Brighton. To paraphrase Marshall Mathers: “Will the real Aston Villa please stand up?”
Tottenham Hotspur PL Form: LWLLD Pre-crucible postion: 10th Post-crucible position: 11th Other: Draw in the Europa League (1-1 vs. Rangers) and a win in the Carabao Cup (4-3 over Manchester United) OK, Tottenham are more inconsistent than Villa. Only 1 point from 3 home fixtures is really, really poor. And allowing Wolves to grab that is beyond excusable. Their solitary win came against lowly Southampton, so that doesn’t count. But they avoid sinking lower in this ranking by that Carabao win.

More Losers than Winners…

West Ham United PL Form: WDDWL Pre-crucible postion: 14th Post-crucible position: 13th Fact: those wins were against bottom-feeders (Wolves & Saints). Their draws were against competition, but that loss was an embarrassment.
Chelsea PL Form: WWDLL Pre-crucible postion: 2nd Post-crucible position: 4th Other: two wins in the UEFA Conference (3-1 over Astana; 5-1 over Shamrock Rovers) How can a team sitting 4th in the table, with four wins in seven matches, be in the more loser category? Simple. Before the crucible started we (Gary Striker and I) were talking about Chelsea being title contenders. I was even sincere. Now that narrative is OVER.
Brentford PL Form: LWLLD Pre-crucible postion: 11th Post-crucible position: 12th Other: Lost in the Carabao Cup (3-1 to Newcastle). Before the crucible, Brentford’s home record was impeccable; their road record abysmal. Both of these did not survive December. On Dec. 21st Nottingham snapped a collar around their neck, slapped their ass and became their daddy. The next week they took a point from Brighton at the AMEX. Either way… boo.
Brighton, Hove & Albion PL Form: DLDDD Pre-crucible postion: 5th Post-crucible position: 10th Notwithstanding the steel in that comeback against Villa today, December was a poor, poor run for the Seagulls. They suffered the largest drop in the standings. Yuck. Only Southampton’s continuing misery kept Brighton from being in the loser group.

Losers

Manchester City PL Form: DLLDW Pre-crucible postion: 4th Post-crucible position: 6th Other: Lost in the Champions League (2-0 Juventus) Manchester City’s decline began well before the crucible, but it is still surprising at how bad they were in December. Three losses sandwiched between draws to lower position Crystal Palace and Everton were somewhat mollified by yesterday’s win over Leicester. But not much.
Manchester United PL Form: LWLLL Pre-crucible postion: 13th Post-crucible position: 14th Other: Win in the UEFA Conference (2-1 over Plzn); loss in the Carabao Cup (4-3 to Tottenham). 3L (and down 2-0 to Newcastle). Crap before the crucible. Crap after the crucible. Shutout in their last two. Lost the Carabao. Barely managed against Plzn. Even winning the derby can’t save them.
Southampton PL Form: LLDLL Pre-crucible postion: 20th Post-crucible position: 20th It will be a long, long second half to the season. Relegation seems sadly inevitable, so the only thing as a club to play for is pride. First goal: surpass Derby’s 11 point record of shame. Second goal: crush some other team’s dream. For individuals, showcase your skills to generate interest in a summer transfer.
Leicester City PL Form: DLLLL Pre-crucible postion: 16th Post-crucible position: 19th Just before the crucible they jettisoned a manager, recruited a flashy striker with managerial ambitions… and have completely tanked. 3 goals scored; 14 conceded. And they are now deep in the relegation zone. Verdict: Biggest Loser