Premier League 2024/25 Predictions: Mark's best bets including 50/1 Top Goalscorer pick | OneFootball

English Premier League

Nkunku can light up the Premier League this season, says Stinch

Football Only Bettor podcast panelist Mark Stinchcombe has previewed the new Premier League season, picking out his best bets across a range of markets for Betfair.

Premier League Winner

Despite Manchester City winning the league four seasons in a row and six of the last seven campaigns, there's barely anything separating their odds of 13/10 to win the league and Arsenal's price of 7/4. It looks a big price on City when you consider they have been favourites in the last eight seasons, including odds on favourites in the last six renewals.

For me the odds movement has been huge this season. Two seasons ago Manchester City were 4/7, the season where Arsenal emerged as genuine contenders, but City only increased to 8/11 to win 2023/24. However, after another tight battle where City still emerged victorious, they are out to a surprising 13/10 - an increase of 34%. Have Man City really regressed/Arsenal improved by 34%?

Looking at their expected points over the last two seasons is a good guide here. City have remained a constant at 83 xPts, so no regression, where as Arsenal have improved from 72.5 to 82 xPts - an improvement however of only 13%, not enough to justify the price of just 7/4.

Is this Arsenal's shortest price ever to win the Premier League? Feels like it could be and there up against the greatest Premier League team ever. They just cannot be backed at these odds. They were 5/1 last season, 50/1 the season before! To put it into context, Liverpool's shortest price over this last decade was 9/4 to win the 2020/21 season, and that was at least with the justification they won the league the year before. Anyone backing Arsenal this season have well and truly missed the boat on the price.

Erling Haaland scored 27 goals last season but no one at Arsenal scored more than 16 and that feels like the difference that Arsenal do not have a prolific striker to turn one of those unwon games into victory. Arsenal lost more games than both City and Liverpool last season and this Manchester City team and manager know exactly what it takes to lift the title. Speaking of Liverpool, their hasn't actually been much change in the odds despite the loss of Jurgen Klopp 13/2 but one would expect a tough ask to break the City dominance at the first time of asking for Arne Slot, especially without any new summer additions. Outside of the big three, the rest of the pack finished 23 points+ behind last season.

Top 4

I don't like the look of the betting heat for the Top 4 because it seems like your only playing for one place and prices of Chelsea, Man Utd, Spurs and Newcastle only range from 6/4 to 9/4 so it really isn't enticing.

Relegation

At the other end of the table, why is the team that won the play-offs the side with the biggest relegation price of the promoted teams? Leicester are understandably short 4/9 favourites given a potential points deduction hanging over them but Kieran McKenna has done an amazing job at Ipswich 5/6 with back-to-back promotions, accumulating 194 points and scoring 193 goals over his two seasons and I'm hoping he can surprise a few unlike my faith in Vincent Kompany's Burnley last season.

Last time in the Premier League Southampton 11/10 finished bottom. And defensively Russel Martin's expansive style looks susceptible a level up. Last season only Norwich (64 goals) and Preston (67) conceded more goals in the top 11 last season than the Saints' 63. They've lost 16-goal Che Adams on a free transfer to Torino and top scorer Adam Armstrong only managed four goals in 53 appearances in the top flight for the Saints. All three promoted teams were relegated last season and it looks a tough ask for this seasons newcomers again.

Fulham could be another team to consider at odds of 5/1. Outside of the relegated teams, only Man Utd, West Ham and Wolves collected fewer xPts than the Cottagers, and the loss of João Palhinha to Bayern Munich could hit them hard.

Top Goalscorer

Looking at the Top Goalscorer market, the aforementioned Erling Haaland is clear favourite at just 8/11 having once again won the golden boot last season with 27 goals despite starting just 29 games (76%). It looks a tough ask for anyone to beat him, especially with his 36 the season before. Expected goals wise, he's finished nine goals clear of the nearest contender in both seasons but he cannot be backed at 8/11 with a 38 game season and his slight propensity for injuries.

Instead I'm really excited about Christopher Nkunku's each-way chances at a whopping 50/1. He missed most of last season for Chelsea with a knee injury but still managed three goals from just two starts and nine substitute appearances. Now having acclimatised to the league, I like his chances of replicating his last two season totals at Leipzig with 16 goals (20 starts) and 20 goals (31 starts). He's hit the ground running with three goals in five games in pre-season friendlies and over the course of the last four seasons, 18 goals has been enough to secure a place and thus an each-way payout.

Recommended bets

Back Man City to win the Premier League @ 13/10

Back Southampton to be Relegated @ 11/10

Back Christopher Nkunku Top Goalscorer each-way @ 50/1