Poland v Austria: Goals will flow in high-pressure battle | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Adam Buksa celebrates scoring for Poland against Netherlands

James Eastham is expecting an open and entertaining encounter as two sides seeking their first points of the tournament go head-to-head in Berlin on Friday...

Poland vs AustriaFriday 21 June, 17:00Live on ITV1

Urgent need for points

This backs-against-the-wall clash promises to be a thrilling encounter as Poland and Austria bid to get points on the board. Having lost their opening games against Netherlands and France respectively, these two sides are under pressure as they prepare to meet in Berlin.

The fact that three teams may qualify from the groups gives both some leeway but there is still a sense of this being a must-win game for the two sides. Defeat may deal a fatal blow to hopes, so we expect the game to open up and be infused with urgency at some point.

Poland are the 4.1 underdogs while Austria are 2.04 to claim all three points and the Draw is 3.6. Austria look a touch short - we're not entirely convinced their performance relative to Poland's on matchday one justifies odds that suggest they have close to a 50 per cent chance of winning here - but it's quite conceivable Ralf Rangnick's players may triumph, so we prefer to leave this market alone.

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Poor defending from both teams

Instead we favour the goals markets. These two sides may have scored only one goal between in their opening fixtures - Poland's Adam Buksa put his side 1-0 ahead with a header from a corner against Netherlands - but there are other metrics that point towards this being a high-scoring encounter.

The two sides' combined xGs in their opening games were a fairly moderate 1.57 (i.e. 0.79 per team). More interesting, however, are their xGs against figures, which hint at the defensive deficiencies that we expect to see.

Netherlands managed 1.50 xG against Poland, and France's xG vs Austria was 2.09. There were clear moments of defensive weakness from both teams, and we're expecting the same to occur here, especially as there's so much at stake in the game.

Both teams should hit target

The lack of a single outstanding finisher for Austria is a concern, but they forced France goalkeeper Mike Maignan into one excellent save in their opening game, and got into dangerous positions on other occasions, too. Poland showed the threat they can pose at set-pieces, while at the other end Austria will be encouraged by the time and space Poland granted Netherlands several times when Ronald Koeman's men attacked. The other factor to consider is the possible return of Robert Lewandowski. At the time of writing Poland believe their star man could be fit to take part although he's not certain to start.

Taking all factors into account, we're happy to back 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market at good odds. A price of 1.9 is available and that holds plenty of appeal. It's also worth noting the general tournament trend: both teams have scored in 11 (61%) of the 18 fixtures played at the time of writing.

In the individual player markets, Lewandowski will obviously attract plenty of attention. He's 9/5 to score, and 4/9 to have one or more shot on target. He cannot be ruled out of triggering a pay-out with either of those selections, but until we have more information about his fitness, we prefer to leave him alone.

Recommended bets

Back 'Yes' in Both teams to Score? market @ 1.9