Opta Predicts England v Slovakia: Back Kane at 3/1 and cut the corners | OneFootball

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Opta and Betfair have teamed up for Euro 2024

England have landed themselves in the favourable side of the knockout stage draw and first up they have Slovakia in the Last 16. Harry Carr from Opta has used the best stats to find the best bets on Sunday.

England v Slovakia Superboost

Betfair customers have voted for Sunday's Superboost to be 'England NOT to have a shot in the first 10 minutes (v Slovakia)'. They clearly know their stuff, as the Three Lions have failed to have a single attempt in the opening 10 minutes of any of their three Euro 2024 games so far.

The selection has had a (super) boost up to 3/1!

On the second day of the knockout stages at Euro 2024, it is England's turn to take centre-stage as they seek an improved performance against Slovakia.

Five points may have been enough for Gareth Southgate's Three Lions to clinch top spot in Group C, but three tepid displays were not enough to build excitement among fans.

England are, however, 10/3 favourites in the outright Euro 2024 betting after landing on the opposite side of the draw to the next four teams on that list - Spain, Germany, France and Portugal.

Will they take advantage of a favourable draw and step up a gear? We use Opta data to bring you the best bets in our preview for Sunday's match.

Gordon to bring a fresh threat?

Phil Foden's place in the England lineup has become an unexpected subject of debate thus far, with the Manchester City man an awkward fit out on the left flank.

Foden has completed more passes to Jordan Pickford (three) than to Harry Kane (one) at Euro 2024, and just four of his 204 total touches at the tournament have come inside the opposition penalty area.

With Foden having temporarily left the camp this week to attend the birth of his third child, might Southgate ponder a change on that wing? If he does, Newcastle United's Anthony Gordon could be a wise selection.

He had a team-high 81 shots for Newcastle in the Premier League in 2023-24, with 54.4% of those hitting the target. He is 7/2 to have two or more shots on target - an enticing price if he does start.

Pekarik and Gallagher walking a tightrope

Whoever plays on the England left will likely come up against 37-year-old Peter Pekarik, with the Hertha Berlin man having started all three of his nation's games at right-back.

Only France (44) have drawn more fouls as a team than England's 41 so far at this tournament, and with Slovakia likely to dig in and attempt to break up the play, a scrappy affair should be expected.

Pekarik will be coming up against some silky operators and a price of 7/2 for him to be carded appears good value.

On the other side, Conor Gallagher has committed four fouls in just 102 minutes of action at the Euros. His place could come under threat from Kobbie Mainoo, but if he gets a decent amount of gametime, 15/8 for him to commit three or more fouls looks a worthwhile bet.

Kane's time to shine?

England captain Kane has struggled so far at this competition, his lone goal coming in the 1-1 draw with Denmark and his total of 10 touches in the opposition area putting him level with Germany left-back Maximilian Mittelstadt and Czechia's Tomas Soucek, among others.

However, he is a player that tends to grow into tournaments.

Kane has scored six goals in his last six appearances in the knockout stages of major international tournaments (two in two at the 2022 World Cup, four in four at Euro 2020). His overall tally of seven knockout goals, meanwhile, is an all-time Three Lions record.

Slovakia gave up 4.4 expected goals against (xGA) in the group stage, the eighth-highest figure at the tournament.

At 3/1 to score first and 1/1 to net anytime in 90 minutes, Kane is worth backing. With a low-scoring affair likely based on England's attacking so far, the former bet may hold the most appeal.

Cutting corners

Corners were once one of the main weapons in England's armoury, but with Harry Maguire out of this tournament through injury, their set-pieces have been far less effective.

Their corners, in fact, have not been very frequent at all. Only Croatia (five), Albania (six) and Scotland (seven) had fewer corners than the Three Lions' nine in the groups.

All of those teams crashed out, and the latter duo spent long periods under the cosh, Albania averaging 35% possession and Scotland registering 43.7% (England had 58.3%).

Attacking the home corners line may not be a bad idea, with England 15/8 to have under 4.5 corners and 1/1 to have under 5.5.

Don't expect a thriller

England have played 10 knockout matches at major tournaments under Southgate - four at the 2018 World Cup, four at Euro 2020 and two at the 2022 World Cup.

Only three - a 4-0 win over Ukraine three years ago and matches against Senegal (3-0) and France (1-2) in Qatar - have contained over 2.5 goals within the 90 minutes.

Given only Scotland (0.95) and Serbia (2.11) created a lower xG total than the Three Lions (2.19) in the group stage, another cagey encounter looks likely on Sunday.

There is little value in backing England at 2/5 to win in 90 minutes (assigned a 65% probability by the Opta supercomputer) or 1/7 to qualify (assigned an 82% likelihood). Those backing Southgate's boys should consider the 15/8 on an England win and under 2.5 goals.

And for Slovakia backers?

On the other hand, if you're either a pessimist or a fan of one of the other home nations, you may fancy opposing Southgate's side.

Given their attacking struggles, as well as the precedent Slovakia set by frustrating Belgium in a 1-0 win on matchday one, Francesco Calzona's backline may just be able to stand firm.

Correct score punters might take a glance at a price of 17/2 for a goalless draw or head to the method of victory market, where it is 6/1 for either team to win on penalties.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more of the best England tips and previews!

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