Midweek League One & League Two Tips: Back Wombles to keep Cardiff at bay | OneFootball

EFL League One & League Two

Alan has a nose for the Wimbledon defence this Tuesday against Cardiff

It's Matchday 4 in League One and League Two and our EFL expert Alan Dudman previews matches on Tuesday and Wednesday with six tips in his latest column...

League One

Plymouth Argyle v Leyton Orient, Tuesday 19:45: Back Orient to win @ 29/20

Plymouth look a mentally fragile side at the moment, something their manager Tom Cleverley stressed after Saturday's 2-3 loss at the LNER to Lincoln. They came to life when the game was over on 78 minutes, which is easy to do there is nothing to play for, and they've now lost three on the spin.

Back at Home Park might work, it might not, as the fans will demand better and that in-turn increases pressure.

It's not quite "nothing to lose" for Orient, but they just look a better side, and not too far away from one that could mount a serious title challenge.

A rousing comeback for a 2-2 on Saturday had good and bad elements versus Stockport - but late goals with 13 shots and 71% possession stats showed they are not too far away and it was good to see Aaron Connolly score his first for the club.

At the prices, in a game that might deliver goals, Orient look worth the punt at 31/20.

AFC Wimbledon v Cardiff City, Tuesday 19:45: Back BTTS 'No @ 4/5

Wimbledon's defence is often heralded in these parts and they did a bit of a number on Reading on Saturday - a 2-0 win with just two shots on target. They found it pretty easy to play against a Reading team that hasn't got much of an attacking threat in the final third despite all of their build-up play.

Wimbledon's low block was employed to great success, and it nearly worked against Luton too and might just work again on Tuesday versus Cardiff in what could be dubbed as the "Sam Hammam Derby".

I quite like what Brian Barry-Murphy is doing with a fair amount of exciting young talent at Cardiff and three members of his back four on Saturday against Rotherham were teenagers.

They've also got the exceptional Rubin Colwill, a gifted young midfielder who has been on the radar of some top clubs and looks to be now delivering. His free-kick abilities have already been seen this term with his wand of a left foot, so the Dons will need to keep him at bay.

Port Vale defended superbly in the 0-0 against Cardiff with Yousef Salech often isolated for long periods up front, and that is something the hosts can tap into here for our BTTS 'No' bet.

Peterborough United v Barnsley, Tuesday 19:45: Back Barnsley to win @ 11/8

What has happened at the Posh? They seem to be drifting from disaster to disaster on the pitch and with the EFL Cup it's now four straight losses and Darren Ferguson is finding himself in the heat of the fans' ire.

Fergie saw his team have 71% of the ball on Saturday at Wigan, only to lose 2-0 with just two shots on target.

They are easy to play against and Posh are also easy to score against and are winless in their last five at home too.

Barnsley have to be the bet here with seven points from their three games - incidentally all three have hit the BTTS 'Yes'. The Tykes are unbeaten across their last five with Tuesday's opponent with three wins and two draws - winning 3-1 in the reverse fixture last term.

League Two

Swindon Town v Barnet, Tuesday 19:45: Back BTTS 'Yes' @ 8/11

It seems Ian Holloway has stymied the interest in Harry Smith - who is wanted by Danish club AC Horsens for a fair bit of cash. Olly is not a man to upset as I know from experience as I once linked one of his QPR players with a move away from Loftus Road after a chat with an agent many years ago. Holloway subsequently rang up the office demanding to speak to me - my boss said I was out and away for a while. Bullet evaded.

Smith is a key man not only with his goals (15 last term) but also an ability to get his bonce on the ball to clear lines at the back from set-pieces.

Barnet have got their own problems as they cannot keep a clean sheet with six conceded in three matches and mega early too against Walsall on Saturday with the Saddlers on two minutes gaining the lead. They've switched off on set-pieces, something that has angered manager Dean Brennan, and while awful against Fleetwood, they improved slightly against Bromley.

Swindon posted a healthy xG on Saturday when winning against Oldham, and their figure of 1.28 against Cambridge enabled them to score three times too, so you have to feel defences might be under pressure at both ends here. I was half tempted to go with the hosts as the County Ground has been a fortress losing just once in their last 16 at home, but I am expecting a fast start from Swindon, who press high, and Barnet to at least find some form in front of goal.

Bristol Rovers v Oldham Athletic, Tuesday 19:45: Back Oldham at 12/5

Bristol Rovers manager Darrell Clarke was spikey in response to a fairly dumb question at the weekend after the Gas lost again - and results need to pick as it's now four defeats on the spin. So why oh why are they 6/5 favourites here? That looks a shocker of a price.

Of course they were not helped by playing with 10-men for the second-half against a good team in Chesterfield, but they've lost already at home twice to Harrogate and Cambridge, and you'd hardly call either of those two big guns.

Calls are also going against Rovers from officials - be it offside, red cards and free-kicks, but when you're down, your luck is often out.

Oldham have zero wins and played out a complete snooze fest at the MK Dons on Matchday 1 - a tedious 90 minutes of nothing with a paltry xG of just 0.20 from Paul Warne's side and a sum of no shots on target from the Dons showed that Oldham can compete and would rather take a chance on the 12/5 price than that 6/5 which offers no value at all.

Notts County v Shrewsbury Town, Wednesday 19:45: Back Notts County @ 8/11

It's doom and gloom at Bristol Rovers, and it is even gloomier at Shrewsbury on and off the pitch. They have scored just once (in the EFL Cup), scored no goals in League Two and they've started to rack up bookings and red cards. Two sending offs from four games suggests a complete lack of discipline.

There are increased boos, banners and protests at Salop, with a director of football gone (finally) and various takeover talks stalling and off. While I feel for Michael Appleton, who has been given an impossible task, he's also a man that has failed a few times.

Shrews have posted some poor xG numbers too; with just 0.25 versus Bromley, 0.70 against Tranmere and 0.67 with Colchester and with flags at the weekend displaying GET HIM OUT (to owner Roland Wycherely), they have the look of a doomed club and quite rightly Notts County are odds-on here. According to Opta, Shrewsbury have won just three games on the road since April 2024 - losing 16 and drawing nine.

Now read more tips and previews here!

Recommended bets

Back Leyton Orient to beat Plymouth 0.5pt @ 29/20

Back AFC Wimbledon v Cardiff City BTTS 'No' 0.5pt @ 4/5

Back Barnsley to beat Peterborough 0.5pt @ 7/5

Back BTTS 'Yes' Swindon v Barnet 0.5pt @ 8/11

Back Oldham to beat Bristol Rovers 0.5pt @ 12/5