Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo could disappoint for Man United next season according to The Athletic | OneFootball

Manchester United’s potential new attacking duo, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, will not be able to keep up their top form in front of goal next season according to The Athletic.

United have agreed a £62.5 million deal for Cunha and are in advanced negotiations for Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo.

Both players had highly impressive seasons last year in front of goal with Mbeumo firing in 20 Premier League goals and Cunha 15.

United will hope the introduction of both players will bring much needed goals to the side as Bruno Fernandes and Amad were the club’s top scorers in the league with eight goals.

The Athletic has claimed that both players massively over-achieved this season in regard to their xG and report that this is likely to be unsustainable next season.

It is stated in the report that, “Mbeumo scored nearly twice as many goals as expected, netting 15 non-penalty goals from 7.6 xG. Cunha followed closely behind, converting 8.7 xG into 15 goals — the league’s second-highest overperformance in 2024-25.”

What’s more, the outlet queried whether United were signing both players on the basis of a hot-streak, rather than sustained performance at this level.

To test out this theory, The Athletic “simulated Mbeumo’s season 100,000 times using the individual xG values of his 79 non-penalty shots. An average finisher, given the same chances, would be expected to match his tally just once every 200 seasons or so, with only 0.4 per cent of simulations producing 15 goals or more.”

“According to the model, it was more likely he’d score two. Cunha, on the other hand, had a 1.7 per cent chance of achieving his tally or more, due to his smaller level of overperformance.”

The report does state that finishing is not an exact science and can be influenced by many factors such as goalkeeper positioning, distance, individual skill etc.

Whatever reason, the underlying point the report makes is that players do not tend to regularly out-perform their expected xG and almost all see a drop in the following season.

Nonetheless, Cunha has scored more than his expected xG in both his full Premier League seasons. Also, in Mbeumo’s defence, he has also changed the type of shots he scores from, with cutting inside from the right and firing efforts into the bottom corner with his left, seeing an increase in his goal count.

The article is not all bad news for United fans though. It is stated that, “in the case of Mbeumo and Cunha, concerns about overperformance obscure a more important truth: both post strong underlying xG numbers. They’re overperforming relative to a high base, which is especially impressive for players who don’t operate as out-and-out strikers in elite, chance-heavy sides.”

What’s more, even if both players fail to score at the rate they did this season, they both create so many chances that other attacking players should benefit.

While finishing fluctuates, xG creation is a statistic that tends to stay more consistent and both players excel at this metric.

It is reported that “both are skilled at laying on chances, something sorely needed for struggling striker Rasmus Hojlund, who recorded the lowest xG per 90 of all Premier League strikers this season.” This is even more exciting in the context that United will most likely have a new number nine such as Viktor Gyokeres to feast on these hypothetical chances.

There are also improvements in attack that statistics do not tend to show so neatly. Cunha’s ability to drive up the pitch will help immensely and Mbeumo’s physicality in aerial duels will be a big improvement on United’s current attack.

It also must be understood that United have significantly more possession than either Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers and this should result in greater chance creation, even if they aren’t as lethal.

United had 53.6% possession on average last year, the sixth most in the league. While Wolves had 48.1% in 14th and Brentford 47.8% in 15th.

What’s more, United seriously underperformed in their own xG last season when they were expected to score 56, they only scored 44 goals in the league.

Surely, the inclusion of two much more lethal players will only help remedy this wastefulness in front of goal.

Featured image Joe Prior via Getty Images

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