Manchester City v Tottenham Tips: Opta say back 71/1 Bet Builder on Saturday | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back the Opta Bet Builder at 71/1 when Man City host Spurs on Saturday

The Premier League returns on Saturday and Tottenham go to Manchester City for a mouthwatering tea-time match for which Opta are recommending a Bet Builder tip at 71/1...

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Just three weeks after these sides met in the EFL Cup round of 16, we are back to do it all over again.

With Manchester City in uncharacteristically bad form and Tottenham struggling for consistency, it is no exaggeration to suggest that almost anything could happen at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday evening.

Let's have a deeper look at the data to try and make sense of it all.

Lack of form meets inconsistency

It will be common knowledge to almost everyone reading this that City are currently going through a rough patch.

Their four-game losing streak across all competitions is the worst of Pep Guardiola's managerial career. It is the first time that City have lost that many in a row since 2006 and the days of Stuart Pearce.

It began when these sides met three weeks ago and Tottenham's 2-1 home victory knocked Guardiola's men out of the EFL Cup, and continued in games away to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton.

The narrative surrounding City in recent years has been that they endure an average (by their lofty standards) start to the season and turn into a winning machine after Christmas.

While that could still happen this time, it is worth noting that the two league defeats they have already had equals the number that they had suffered by Christmas in two of the last three seasons (2021-22 and 2022-23), by which point they had played 18 and 14 matches respectively.

In short, just 11 games into the campaign, things are going a bit too pear-shaped too early for Guardiola's side.

While it would be an oversimplification to suggest that their poor form is down to just one issue, the absence of recent Ballon d'Or winner Rodri has been stark. Since the start of last season, Manchester City have earned 0.9 points fewer per Premier League match without the midfielder.

But before you rush to back Tottenham, it is worth considering their inconsistency for balance. Ange Postecoglou's side come into this having lost 2-1 at home to previously winless Ipswich Town in their last match before the international break and the form of their last six league games reads WLWLWL.

For their defeats against struggling sides such as Ipswich and Crystal Palace, they have also beaten big-ticket opposition in Aston Villa, Manchester United and City in the cup.

To illustrate the dichotomy, the average Opta rating of teams that Tottenham have beaten in the league this year is 88.72, while the average rating of teams that have beaten them is 90.06. While they are losing to the better teams and beating the worse teams on average, the difference of just 1.34 is tiny.

Spurs have also proven they can threaten the leading sides in the past, having been a bogey team for Guardiola ever since he arrived in England. Since 2016-17, Manchester City have lost six times in the league to Spurs and conceded 22 goals, with both of those figures being higher than against any other opponent Guardiola has faced.

With all of the above considered, it is worth dipping into a market that allows you to hedge. The 19/5 available for Tottenham draw no bet is worth taking on, while double chance at 8/5 looks generous for bet builders.

Goals, goals, goals

Regardless of the result, one thing that seems a certainty is that there will be goals at the Etihad Stadium.

Saturday's match is a meeting between two of the league's three top scoring teams, with Tottenham having scored 23 and Manchester City on 22. City have also registered the highest xG (22.3) in the Premier League, with Tottenham second on 21.7.

The teams rank first and second for the total number of shots taken as well, having had a combined total of 401 across their 22 league games this season. Both teams also rank in the top two for shots on target, having managed a combined total of 143. Tottenham average 6.2 per game, meaning odds of 7/5 for them to register five or more shots on target are noteworthy.

With both sides also having the two highest average possession figures in the Premier League this season, this will ostensibly be 'a who does it better' in controlling the match and playing attacking football.

The above stats take on further significance when you consider that starting goalkeepers Guglielmo Vicario (64.56%) and Ederson (65.79%) both rank in the bottom four in the division for save percentage.

Notably, the 13 goals conceded by Manchester City by mid-November exceeds their comparative total at Christmas in two of the last four seasons (2020-21 and 2021-22) and is just one fewer than that of 2022-23. They have conceded that amount of goals from just 86 shots - at least 17 fewer than at Christmas in the previously-mentioned campaigns - does not reflect well on the goalkeeper.

What all of that means is that teams are having an easier time scoring against City. With both teams having scored in nine of City's 11 league games this season - and all four matches in their losing run - BTTS is a sensible choice at 4/9. Alternatively, over 3.5 goals looks enticing at 10/11.

Solanke should get chances

When looking at likely goalscorers, Dominic Solanke jumps off the page at 12/5 given that almost 40% of the chances Manchester City have conceded this season have come from the middle third.

Solanke himself has scored three goals in his last three appearances in all competitions, including a brace against Aston Villa in Tottenham's most recent victory on November 3.

Alternatively, James Maddison is worthy of consideration in the score or assist market at 11/5 should he feature. The 27-year-old has already contributed three goals and three assists in the Premier League this season and is unlikely to be far away from set pieces if he is on the pitch.

We also need to consider Manchester City here and, while it's hard to argue against Premier League top goalscorer Erling Haaland, especially after a four-goal haul with Norway in the latest international break, his price of 4/7 hardly screams value.

Instead, Josko Gvardiol is worth a look at 13/2 to score anytime. Despite being a defender, Gvardiol is Man City's equal second-highest scorer this season with three league goals. He also ranks fourth for shots (16) among the City squad, second for shots on target (seven) and has the second-best conversion rate (18.75%) behind only Haaland. It's likely that City will need a corner or dangerous set piece for this to come in but, at the price, it's a decent bet to take.

Back Tottenham/Draw Double Chace, Solanke to Score & Gvardiol to Score

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