Liverpool’s best route to victory over Southampton backed by data | OneFootball

Liverpool vs Southampton: Key Metrics and Areas to Exploit

Liverpool are set to face Southampton in the Premier League, and the numbers from Dave Davis and Dr Phil Barter on Stat Me Up! (Anfield Index) paint a telling picture. The Saints’ struggles this season are well documented, and Liverpool have a prime opportunity to capitalise. Here’s a data-driven look at how this fixture shapes up.

Southampton’s Woeful Record

If you wanted to pick an ideal follow-up to a tough away game in Paris, “you would probably pick this,” said Davis. The statistics confirm that sentiment. Southampton have won just two games all season, drawing three and losing 22 of their 27 fixtures. They’ve scored only 19 goals and shipped 65. As Dr Phil Barter pointed out, “this is a team that’s got nine points all season.”

Even in their last two outings, the Saints suffered consecutive 4-0 defeats, highlighting their defensive frailties. The underlying numbers don’t offer much hope for them either. Their expected goals (xG) suggests they should have scored 30 goals—12 more than they actually have. That kind of underperformance is, as Barter put it, “Arctic cold.”

Liverpool’s Opportunity to Exploit the Defence

Defensively, Southampton are somehow overperforming. Despite conceding 65 goals, their expected goals against (xGA) is 75. Barter highlighted that as a bizarre anomaly: “They should have conceded 75 goals… so they’re actually overperforming by nearly 10 goals defensively.”

That said, the recent trend suggests their defensive structure is breaking down. Their last two games saw them concede four expected goals against Manchester City and 2.5 against Chelsea. They’re also conceding nearly 20 shots per game, with over 10 of those on target. These numbers indicate a defence on the brink, ripe for Liverpool to exploit.

As Davis noted, “if we start well against Southampton, then you can make changes.” The strategy is clear: go strong early, get ahead, and then make necessary rotations.

Predicted Liverpool Line-up and Tactical Considerations

Rotation will be a talking point, given Liverpool’s schedule. Davis believes Arne Slot will keep changes minimal: “A rotation for left wing and centre-forward, maybe… three, four changes max.” The expectation is that Liverpool will start with a strong XI and “try and get the result early doors, then make changes.”

Key positions to watch:

Another interesting tactical consideration is the box midfield approach, which Davis suggested might be an option. “I think if he had his time again, he might go box midfield against PSG… it made us more solid.” Against a team that struggles in transition like Southampton, this could be a way to control the game and create overloads in attack.

Photo: IMAGO

The Bigger Picture: Title Race Implications

This game isn’t just about three points; it’s about setting the tone for the run-in. With Manchester City playing the next day, a win would put Liverpool 16 points clear before their rivals even take the pitch. “Psychologically, you win that, that’s 16 points clear—massive,” Davis emphasised.

Slot’s philosophy aligns with this urgency. “He loves to play the game in front of him… it’s about winning that next game,” Davis added. Liverpool can’t afford to be complacent, and with Southampton’s glaring weaknesses, they have every reason to be ruthless.

Everything in the numbers points to a Liverpool win. Southampton are not just struggling—they’re statistically underperforming in attack and crumbling in defence. Liverpool, with the right approach, should be able to take full advantage. As Davis summed it up: “Long story short, all the metrics sucked for Southampton.”

For the Reds, this game is about maintaining momentum and keeping the pressure on their title rivals. If they start fast, the points should be secured early, allowing for some tactical tweaks ahead of bigger challenges.