Leicester v Manchester City: Now is the time to back the champions | OneFootball

English Premier League

Man City have given Pep Guardiola a headache with just one win in 13 games

Manchester City head to lowly Leicester on Sunday and now is the time to back Pep Guardiola's crumbling champions, says Andy Schooler...

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Leicester v Manchester CitySunday 29 December, 14:30Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

Everyone's been wondering when the right time to get with Man City again is, right?

Well, now that chance has arrived.

The champions - 1.36 for victory this game - may have won just one of their last 13 matches in all competitions but now they face a side in almost exactly the same rut - it's one win in 11 across a similar time period for Leicester (9.0).

Foxes can't stop conceding

Four points from six in the immediate aftermath of Ruud van Nistelrooy's appointment is already looking like a dead-cat bounce with 10 goals now conceded in their last three games.

Yes, they did OK at Anfield the other night, leading for some time, despite being without Jamie Vardy, who could miss out again here, while Jordan Ayew will definitely be absent due to suspension. However, frankly they were well beaten in the end and could have conceded more than just the three they did.

In any case, what was more worrying for the Foxes was they way they slumped 3-0 against drop rivals Wolves in their last home game.

Defensively they are very poor. It's no clean sheet in 12, while they've conceded multiple goals in eight of those games and 3+ in seven of them.

City data shows things should change

Of course, some will be loath to side with City given their recent run. But study the numbers and you see their problems are largely defensive. Going forward, the underlying data remains strong and they should be capable of outscoring their hosts here.

In that horror run of 13 games, they still kept large amounts of possession - the majority in all 13 and over 60% in nine.

On the expected-goals front, they've had a figure of more than two in five of their last nine Premier League games with their total xG close to 17 across that period. They've only actually scored 10 goals - those numbers have to close up over time.

The expected-points figures also show how City haven't been quite as bad as many are making out.

Since November began (the start of their run of five points from a possible 27), they have an expected-points total of 11.31. It is the biggest differential in the league.

In short, they are playing better than results suggest and so facing a team in shocking form themselves, one unable to keep goals out, looks ideal for City right now.

Back City in HT/FT market

So, how to back them?

Over 2.5 City goals is one possibility at 2.02. They could easily have done this against a defensively much stronger Everton, missing a penalty and hitting the post, although the fact remains they've only managed to do land this in two of 13 away games (all comps) this season.

So, instead I'm going to back them in the HT/FT market - they are 1.95 to lead at both half time and full time.

As already outlined, I'd expect hem to score goals and Leicester have a worrying habit of conceding early.

They've conceded inside half an hour in eight of those 12 aforementioned matches, while six of Leicester's eight defeats in that run have also seen them behind at the interval.

Gvardiol can strike again

Looking at the player markets, I think it's worth backing Josko Gvardiol to score again at 13/2.

The Croatian gets forward from the back often and is a big threat from set pieces - and Leicester are weak in that area.

The Foxes have conceded more shots than any other team from set plays this season and they have the highest expected-goals-against (xGA) figure from such situations.

Gvaridol has found the net in four of his last 12 Premier League games and struck the woodwork against Everton on Boxing Day, a game in which he managed five shots.

For those putting Bet Builders together, also consider Boubakary Soumare to be shown a card.

The Leicester midfielder has long attracted referees' attention - a loan spell in Spain brought cards aplenty too - and remarkably he's now been booked in each of his last six games at the King Power Stadium.

Referee Michael Oliver is well above the league average for cards this season, averaging more than five per game, so backing Soumare to deliver again at 15/8 certainly has potential.

English Premier League - Top 10 Cards

Recommended bets

1.5pts City/City HT/FT @ 1.950.5pt Josko Gvardiol to score @ 13/2

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 10pts Returned: 6.1pts P/L: -3.9pts

2023/24: +4.54pts