Impact of Parma’s Coaching Change on Their Chances to Remain in Serie A | OneFootball

It’s been 20 years since Parma turned from one of the major forces in Serie A to the team whose primary goal is to keep their place in the elite.

The club had been relegated thrice in this century, so many fear the current comeback to Serie A won’t last long. In a way, supporting Parma is like playing the best online pokies in Australia: it’s very unpredictable!

Many hoped the club was entering a new era with Fabio Pecchia as head coach. The guy won promotion with Parma and even brought a signature “never-say-die” approach to the team. However, Pecchia was fired, and Christian Chivu was hired as his replacement. Many fans and pundits wonder how this will impact Parma’s chances of remaining in Serie A.

Experience vs. fresh blood: a dilemma for Parma

After years of struggle in the mid-2010s, Parma is finally in a more or less stable managerial and financial situation. The club is ambitious about becoming a regular Serie A team instead of an occasional guest.

One of the key factors in building a solid team is having a long-term head coach who can define the team’s style and create the foundation for future success. Fabio Pecchia looked like someone who could be that “foundation” guy. Sure, he is not some kind of tactician guru or a very special coach, but he was good enough to transform the team into a major force in Serie B in about a year and then to have a decent start in the elite. He knew the team as he built it. And his experience was super helpful for Parma.

However, many doubted Pecchia’s ability to stay calm under pressure at the highest level. He is known as an expert in winning promotions in Serie B, but his experience in Serie A is a bit different. Given that, Parma management decided to make a move that could be called an investment in the future. They hired Christian Chivu, a guy with zero experience in adult football, let alone Serie A.

The move with Chivu is about the future, not the current season. If the club wanted to keep the place in Serie A at all costs, then they would hire someone else. From this season’s perspective, the coaching change at Parma feels like a “hit or miss” kind of move. And it would be probably wiser to keep Pecchia even after four losses in a row. But even if the team is eventually relegated, there is a big chance Chivu will stay for the next season, especially if Parma is able to produce something promising game-wise.

Good and bad examples of head coach replacements in Serie A

Managerial chances in Serie A, especially by the teams battling to remain in the elite, aren’t unusual. On the contrary, it’s a league with strong traditions of such moves. There are even special rules for coaches in Serie A, which are unheard of in other leagues.

If we look at the most recent history, we see that clubs in or near the relegation zone change their coaches occasionally.

We collected data from the last four seasons to analyze coach replacements by teams that were eventually relegated:

Only two teams out of twelve kept the head coach until the end of the season. In both cases, the teams were favoured to be relegated at the start of the season and actually performed decently. We can also see that coach replacements during the January-March period rarely help, so it doesn’t bode well for Parma.

Cristian Chivu, Parma head coach (via Parma Calcio).

Good examples

Each season and each team is another whole different story. But it’s pretty standard to search and find some parallels. For Parma and their supporters, good examples could be used as inspirations. And it’s not that hard to find.

No further than last season, Serie A fans experienced the “rescue” operation by Fabio Cannavaro at Udinese. He took over the club in late April and went unbeaten until the end of the season (2W, 3D), thus saving Zebras from relegation. Cannavaro had no prior experience coaching Serie A sides.

An even better example is Davide Nicola, who saved Salernitana in 2021/2022. Before his tenure, the team was hopelessly last, with only 12 points accumulated in 23 matches. But Nicola’s magical 8-match unbeaten streak saved Salernitana.

Bad examples

Bad examples are even more common. Even Parma experienced an unsuccessful coach replacement. In the 2020/21 season, the club decided to replace Fabio Liverani and hire former coach Roberto D’Aversa. The team was unconvincing under Liverani but not hopeless: they were just one point from the 17th spot. Under D’Aversa, Parma accumulated just 8 points in 22 matches, finishing dead last.

A more relevant case is Shevchenko at Genoa. The Ukrainian had no coaching experience in Serie A and was hired to save the club. Andriy’s 10 weeks at the club were horrible: 0 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, and just 3 goals scored. Many believe Chivu may follow his path.