How Ekitike and Isak compare as Liverpool and Newcastle play transfer chess | OneFootball

Liverpool and Newcastle United are involved in one of the most intriguing transfer stories of the summer window.

At the centre of it are Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike. Isak is the jewel of the Newcastle crown, a footballer who last season cemented his place among the best forwards in the game.

Newcastle want to build around Isak and view Ekitike as the ideal competition and complement to the Swedish striker. A bid of €75 million (£64.9m) was turned down by Eintracht Frankfurt earlier this week.

Eddie Howe’s pursuit of the player is complicated by the shadow of Liverpool. Not only do the Premier League champions want to sign Isak, communicating a willingness to do a deal worth a British record £120m, but they also like Ekitike.

Liverpool have, effectively, sent Newcastle a message. We want Isak and, if not, we’ll move for your top target instead. Newcastle insist Isak is not for sale.

Ekitike is viewed as the perfect alternative for Liverpool. And with good reason.

Ekitike has earned the nickname ‘Baby Isak’, and the stylistic similarities are clear. Both possess a tall, wiry frame, pace, and excellent close control in tight areas.

Ekitike’s numbers from last season were superb. After joining Frankfurt from Paris Saint-Germain for a fee of €17.5m (£15.1m), he scored 22 goals in all competitions and added 12 assists.

Across the first six months of the season, he worked in devastating unison with Omar Marmoush, before stepping up to lead the line alone following the Egyptian’s exit for Manchester City in the January transfer window.

Ekitike’s underlying data paints a picture. Last season, he ranked in the top 10% of all forwards across Europe for non-penalty xG, shots, assists, progressive carries, successful take-ons and attacking penalty area touches per 90 minutes. It’s a broad skillset that has attracted Premier League interest even at the high price Frankfurt are demanding.

In comparison to Isak, and allowing for the context of competing in different competitions, Ekitike outperformed the Swede on several metrics. His non-penalty xG and expected assists per 90 exceeded Isak’s, while his success rate for aerial duels and offensive duels dwarfed that of the Newcastle talisman.

Crucially, however, the duo are incomparable on one metric. Arguably, it is the most important: shot conversion.

Isak netted 23 goals in the Premier League last season, his second straight season exceeding 20 goals in the division. He became the first Newcastle player to achieve that feat, with even Alan Shearer failing to do so in consecutive campaigns at St James’ Park.

Isak’s 2024/25 conversation rate placed him in the top 15% of forwards, while his return of 19 non-penalty goals (91st percentile in Europe) trailed only Mohamed Salah in the Premier League.

Ekitike, in contrast, ranked only in the 41st percentile for conversion rate, while his -7.55 xG was the biggest underperformance in the entire Bundesliga. The Frenchman is a chance machine, but his finishing requires refinement. It’s the biggest – and an important – question mark.

At 23, suitors will be confident that Ekitike can improve that record. Isak, at the same point in his career, had 43 top-five league goals from 128 appearances (88 starts). Ekitike has 32 goals from 99 games (65 starts). The record is comparable.

So now, the transfer chess. Isak’s arrival at Liverpool would be an incredible signing. Arne Slot has already strengthened the champions with Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Florian Wirtz, and the addition of Isak could turn the Reds into Europe’s most feared side.

Readymade to make an impact, it’s clear to see why Liverpool are interested. The 25-year-old could help maximise the next two seasons for ageing superstars Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk. Ekitike, meanwhile, is an exciting but raw fall-back option.

For Newcastle, it’s also a difficult decision. Selling Isak would be a bitter blow after Champions League qualification, particularly to a direct rival. But recouping a record fee could allow Eddie Howe a chance to add the depth his squad needs.

But selling a genuine world-class performer for a potential world-class performer would be a huge roll of the dice. Newcastle need to keep their best players to close the gap at the top, not sell them to the team they’re bidding to catch. Even with a record fee, their recruitment would need to be perfect to improve without Isak.

It will be fascinating to see how the transfer chess unfolds.

Read – Premier League players set to be like new signings in 2025/26

See more – The highest spending clubs in Europe so far this summer

Follow The Football Faithful on Social Media:

Facebook | Instagram | Twitter | YouTube | TikTok