GdS: Why Leao’s sale is possible without European football for Milan

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·27 de marzo de 2025

GdS: Why Leao’s sale is possible without European football for Milan

At the moment AC Milan are on course to miss out on the Champions League, something that could bring big changes when the summer window opens.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) writes this morning, the pitch has not yet given its verdict. There are nine league games left and a Coppa Italia semifinal in which Milan can overturn the odds and secure a place in the next Champions League and/or perhaps win the second trophy of the season.

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The risk, however, of finishing out of at least the Europe that counts is high. And beyond the mere considerations on the sporting results, there would also be an economic impact in missing what was the minimum objective at the start of the season.

With what consequences? In the worst case scenario, the risk of seeing some top players leave. And so it is natural to immediately think of Rafa Leao, the player in the squad with the highest salary and the most outstanding skills.

A decision to make

For four years, Milan have been playing in the Champions League, a competition that guarantees a minimum of €45-50m just for participating. Not counting additional prizes and box office receipts.

Would dropping to the Europa League or, worse, ending up in the Conference or remaining without international cups affect the investments? Milan has just finished two financial years with a profit and the budget forecasts for June 30 are around break-even.

With a net worth that in the last consolidated statement was close to €200m, a year without Europe can be absorbed without excessive alarmism. But as anticipated, this will not prevent the Rossoneri management from thinking about big sales.

If Milan wanted to keep the accounts in order, the revenue lost from the failure to qualify for the Champions League could be covered by the sale of one or more players, also to then finance the incoming market in a summer that would be a reconstruction after a sporting failure.

The main suspect

In essence, staying out of Europe could also push Leao away from Italy. The Portuguese is experiencing a season of ups and downs, even in his relationship with the fans, to whom he has responded on a couple of occasions with gestures on the pitch.

The most blatant came in Parma and we were only on the second game of the season, but after providing the assist for Pulisic’s goal, Rafa silenced a Milan fan in the away section with his finger in front of his mouth.

After the match, he made a justification on social media, but from that moment on, something has never been the same. Witness the buzz at San Siro at every mistake and, at times, even the whistles. Leao is tied to Milan not only by a contract until 2028, but also by a very strong relationship.

He grew up as a footballer and a man in Milan, becoming a father. But faced with an attractive offer, would he be willing to give up the Champions League stage? And would the Diavolo keep him, after a not-so-exciting season?

The squad

Then there are at least a couple of situations to keep an eye on regardless of the results. We are talking about Theo Hernandez and Mike Maignan: the two Frenchmen have contracts expiring on June 30, 2026 and their performances have not met expectations for some time.

The Rossoneri’s crossroads is simple: renewal or sale? To be honest, for the goalkeeper there is already an agreement on the extension at €5m net per year, blocked however by recent errors and the wait for the new sporting director.

Theo’s position is more problematic, for whom negotiations on the renewal have been at a standstill for some time. Having arrived in 2019, the cost of Hernandez’s contract has been practically written off and his farewell would guarantee a substantial capital gain, even if the price were to drop significantly from the valuations of a few months ago (€60-70m).

Milan still has other players to raise money, in addition to several players on loan who could be redeemed between now and June 30. Yesterday, Bild relaunched Leverkusen’s strong interest in Malick Thiaw, but it is clear that they would prefer to sell those who currently seem less central to the project.

Starting with Fikayo Tomori. The English defender opposed a sale to Juve and Tottenham in January, but since then he has been used sparingly by Conceiçao. Unless the new director and, presumably, the new coach consider him a key player for the future, they will try to sell him again in the summer.

The final months of the season will make Milan understand whether Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who has been injured for a long time, can still be useful to the cause or not. With a net salary of 4 million, it will not be easy to find buyers willing to pay who knows how much for the player.

The same goes for Samu Chukwueze, who is three years younger than the former Chelsea player. While Emerson Royal has a lower salary, but is also sidelined by a serious injury from which he has not yet returned.

Finally, without Europe, it is highly unlikely that a new contract will be offered to Alessandro Florenzi. So closing the 2024-25 is not only important for the club, but also for the individual players. The risk is missing out on Milan.