FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle United win against Manchester United | OneFootball

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Manchester United.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches in this next round of games, including Newcastle United v Manchester United.

Their computer model gives Manchester United a 30% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and 45% possibility of a Newcastle United win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now a 44% chance of finishing top four and getting Champions League football.

As for the competitors, the system gives the following probabilities of top four:

Man U 74%, Liverpool 29%, Brighton 26%, Tottenham 25%, Brentford 2%, Chelsea less than 1%.

As for relegation, the computer model doesn’t involve Newcastle United now…

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Southampton most likely (68%) to be relegated, with then Forest a 56% shot, Bournemouth (54%), Everton (40%), Wolves (23%), West Ham (19%), Leeds (17%), Leicester (13%), Crystal Palace (10%).

At the very top they rate Arsenal a 56% chance of finishing as champions and Man City a 44% chance of retaining the title.