Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle United 4 Manchester United 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the four Premier League matches from Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Chelsea 2.91 v Ipswich 1.60 (2-2)

Liverpool 1.43 v West Ham 1.47 (2-1)

Wolves 2.63 v Spurs 1.63 (4-2)

Newcastle United 2.64 Man U 0.79 (4-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

The match scorelines in the wins for Wolves and Newcastle United reflecting their Expected Goals stats superiority over their opponents.

At Anfield, Liverpool and West Ham having almost identical Expected Goals tallies but the scousers taking that late chance to win it.

Amusing to see that Chelsea (2.91) had such a big Expected Goals superiority over Ipswich (1.60) but poor defending early in the game saw them go 2-0 down, then not clinical enough with their finishing to make enough chances count.

On Sunday, Newcastle United had easily the biggest difference in Expected Goals stats against their opponent, a difference of 1.85 (2.64 minus 0.79). Whilst they restricted Man U to comfortably the lowest Expected Goals stat of all eight teams playing on Sunday.

Whilst Newcastle United were by far the better team at St James’ Park on Sunday in all-round play and deserved to win by a few goals. I actually think the last two seasons at SJP when playing Man U, Newcastle were even more dominant and created more/better chances than on Sunday, yet only won 2-0 and 1-0 in those two home games against Erik ten Hag’s Man U teams.

Newcastle United 4 Manchester United 1 – Sunday 13 April 2025 4.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Tonali 24, Barnes 49,64, Bruno 77

Garnacho 37

(In brackets the half-time stats)

Possession was Newcastle 48% (47%) Man U 52% (51%)

Total shots were Newcastle 12 (7) Man U 9 (4)

Shots on target were Newcastle 6 (2) Man U 5 (3)

Corners were Newcastle 7 (5) Man U 2 (1)

Touches in the box Newcastle 37 (18) Man U 12 (7)

Newcastle United team v Manchester United:

Pope, Trippier (Krafth 78), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Joelinton (Longstaff 85), Tonali, Bruno (Miley 85), Barnes, Isak (Wilson 78), Murphy (Gordon 78)

Unused subs:

Dubravka, Targett, Osula, Neave

(Newcastle United 4 Manchester United 1 – Match ratings and comments on all the NUFC players – Read HERE)