EFL League One 2024/25 Outright Tips: Back 2/1 Birmingham for title and 4/1 play-off double | OneFootball

EFL League One & League Two

Chris Davies is taking on his first full-time managerial role

Ryan Deeney look ahead to the 2024/25 League One campaign, previewing the title, top six and relegation markets ahead of the season kick-off.

League One 2024/25 Season Preview

League One: Where fallen giants meet up-and-comers and lower league royalty.

It's a division in which the ante-post title favourite doesn't always take the gold. Portsmouth were 10/1 to win the title last year, behind Derby County, Bolton Wanderers, Peterborough United, Reading and Barnsley. The year before, Plymouth Argyle saw off challenges from runners-up Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday to defy the odds while Wigan Athletic rose from penultimate day survival to champions in 2021-22.

Hoping to buck the trend this year are overwhelming favourites Birmingham City and financial strength is in their favour. The competition is strong, however with fellow relegated outfits Huddersfield Town and Rotherham United looking for immediate returns, Bolton Wanderers, Peterborough United and Barnsley looking to put play-off heartache behind them and Wrexham and Stockport County looking to go back-to-back in the EFL. Then there is Lincoln City, Blackpool, Charlton Athletic and a number of other sides looking to go a step closer than they've managed for a period.

And it makes the relegation scrap all the more fun. We've seen Milton Keynes Dons fall from 3rd and Gillingham from 10th to endure relegation in recent years and with so many clubs making a splash, we are bound to see one or two clubs struggle in a way they weren't anticipating.

Title Winners: Bet on Blues to Bounce Back

Backed by investment firm Knighthead, Birmingham City are doing something unprecedented this summer.

They've spent like no other League One club in history, reportedly breaking the third-tier transfer record twice and spending over £10 million on their first eight signings, which include Willum Thor Willumson from Go Ahead Eagles, Christoph Klarer from Darmstadt and Alfie May, who has scored 66 league goals in his last three seasons.

They've also backed Chris Davies as the guy to take them forward, being given the title of manager and being tasked with overhauling the culture of a football team and club so used to spending its time in the bottom seven of the Championship.

When appointing Wayne Rooney last season, CEO Garry Cook spoke of a winning mentality and "no fear" football and the signs are that the former Celtic and Tottenham Hotspur assistant manager is going to bring traits of that nature, adopting a bold 4-2-3-1 system full of intensity with and without the ball.

Willumson and Klarer are coups. The defence contains Krystian Bielik, who has signed a new deal and will take on the captain's armband, as well as Ethan Laird, who has a unique role stepping up from right-back to join what becomes a front five. Paik Seung-Ho and Jordan James are full internationals, Koji Miyoshi is a fan favourite and new man Emil Hansson has recorded 45 goal contributions in his last 60 matches in Holland's top two tiers. And they still aren't done.

A team backed by unseen financial power at this level, a talented manager, a top-quality squad, a renewed optimism in the stands (season tickets have increased by around 50%) and the ability to go again in January for the final push. They are no normal title favourites and should be backed at 2/1.

Top 6 Finish: Eye-up Bolton & Charlton

Bolton Wanderers start their fourth season in the third tier with one aim - to get over the line and win promotion.

They have made progress year-on-year since the arrival of Ian Evatt, who has performed sufficiently not just to earn a three-year deal in 2023 but shares within club owners Football Ventures (Whites) Ltd. He and the ownership have rebuilt Bolton from their lowest ebb, going from administration, a 12-point deduction and relegation to promotion at the first attempt before 9th, 5th and 3rd place finishes in League One.

They have gradually improved their points, games won, games lost and goals scored total in that time and head into the campaign with a consistency lacking elsewhere in the league - not just in management and ownership but Bolton have retained 12 of their most used 13 players from last season with 11 of those aged between 24 and 29.

While Bolton have been established as second favourites for promotion behind Brum, I'm going to adopt some caution and back them for a Top 6 finish as part of a double.

With so many big hitters in the league, it would be easy to knock aside Charlton Athletic, who have now been in League One since 2020 and struggled to make much of an impression with seven managers and various interims employed during that time. Not to mention the constant turnover in playing staff - they used 42 players last season.

Nathan Jones took the reins last year and made an immediate impression. While wins were hard to come by - 4 wins in 16 - they only lost twice (avoiding defeat against each of the top three) and conceded just 19 goals, a stark improvement on losing 13 of 30 and conceding 46 prior to his arrival.

A more experienced manager these days, Jones has made some quick decisions about who stays and who goes, looking to reduce a bloated squad while adding some trusted lieutenants. That includes the departure of 12 players so far - including top scorer Alfie May - with Luke Berry, Matt Godden and Greg Docherty - who has taken the captain's armband - amongst those to join.

A more stable football club, a good manager, a smaller but more talented squad with a clear direction. Back them and Bolton Wanderers for a Top 6 Finish Double at just under 4/1.

Relegation: Disaster Brewing at Burton

Burton Albion finished 20th in League One and the summer began with long-time chairman Ben Robinson selling his entire majority stake in the football club to Nordic Football Group (NFG).

NFG have decided to manage the tricky waters of change by completely overhauling club staff. They have a new Chairman, Deputy and Sporting Director while Fleur Robinson has returned as CEO. They have replaced Martin Paterson and his coaching staff in the dugout with ex-AFC Wimbledon boss Mark Robinson. They have seen 21 players, including loanees, depart and have signed 20 at the time of writing.

Of those 20 players, only three have played more than 30 matches at League One level or higher, with two of those signing in late July. Seven step up from League Two or below. One is 21 with 32 career appearances to his name. Three join from Premier League academies. Two join from Scotland's second and third tiers. Four join from abroad.