Crossroads and light at the end of the tunnel: What next for Rafael Leao and Milan? | OneFootball

AC Milan and Rafael Leão are at a critical juncture that could redefine the club’s future and the career trajectory of its prized player.

When Milan signed Leão from LOSC Lille in 2019 for a substantial €35m (which has since risen to €49.5m due to the payment of the fine to Sporting CP), they invested in raw talent with the potential to explode.

Traditionally cautious with big-money transfers, Milan bet on Leão’s promise, opting for patience over immediate results. This patience paid off over time, with Leão developing into Milan’s primary attacking threat and playing a pivotal role in their 2022 Scudetto win.

Arriving as a 20-year-old from France, Leão has matured into a lethal force in Serie A, delivering impressive performances and breaking records, such as scoring the fastest goal in Serie A history against Sassuolo on December 21, 2020, and being named Serie A MVP in 2022.

Over the last five seasons, Leão has made 113 goal contributions in 221 games, averaging 0.68 goal contributions per 90 minutes – a remarkable feat for any forward.

However, the 25-year-old winger seems to have hit a plateau. Despite steady goal contributions – 26 in the 2021-22 season, 31 in 2022-23, and 29 in 2023-24 – Leão has yet to establish himself among the global elite.

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His growth has levelled off, and glaring flaws in his game persist, particularly in terms of finishing. While his pace remains a nightmare for defenders, his accuracy in the final pass and precision in front of goal still lag behind those of world-class wingers.

Leão has only twice reached double digits in league goals across his Milan tenure, with inconsistency and occasional poor decision-making halting his evolution into a well-rounded forward.

To complicate matters, Leão’s relationship with new head coach Paulo Fonseca has become tense. Brought in this summer after the departure of Stefano Pioli, Fonseca’s arrival at Milan has been turbulent, marked by a poor start with five losses and two draws in twelve games.

Although a tactical masterclass against Inter momentarily restored hope, Fonseca’s position remains precarious. Tasked with elevating Milan’s squad, Fonseca has yet to find stability, despite a transfer window that reportedly saw him secure his preferred signings, such as the contentious acquisition of Emerson Royal.

Fonseca’s demand for greater discipline from Leão, both on and off the ball, has led to friction. Recently, Christian Pulisic, Milan’s other winger, has shown a stark contrast to Leão’s performance.

The American’s meteoric rise this season includes seven goals compared to Leão’s single tally. As Leão has struggled with inconsistency, going over two months without a league goal, he has found himself benched.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

These events have led to a possible impasse: Milan must decide whether to persevere with Leão or consider moving on. For Leão, being sidelined could fuel a desire for a new start, particularly if he is relegated to a rotation role.

Milan, on the other hand, must evaluate if Leão still aligns with their long-term vision. The option to cash in on him is tempting, as his market value remains high despite recent struggles.

The Rossoneri could use these funds to bolster other areas of the squad, potentially increasing the overall quality of the team. Yet, approving the sale of Leão carries its share of risks.

Europe is brimming with talented left-wingers, making the task of replacing him far less challenging than it may have otherwise been. However, questions about the management’s ability to carry out this task effectively loom large.

Fonseca’s mixed track record and the controversial decisions of the current management cast doubt on their ability to handle any windfall from a Leão sale wisely. The recruitment of players such as Emerson Royal has already attracted scrutiny, raising concerns that funds from Leão’s sale could be squandered on unproven or declining talent.

For Milan’s management, this crossroads with Leão is also a moment of accountability. By replacing Pioli with Fonseca, they took a calculated risk. However, if Fonseca’s tenure does not improve, parting ways with both him and Leão could be seen as a double admission of error—a scenario the management would likely want to avoid.

Photo by Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images

If Milan decide to retain Leão, there are additional factors to consider. Fonseca would need to find a way to reintegrate him effectively into the team, maximizing his potential while addressing his developmental gaps.

Leão would have to accept the challenge of rising to Fonseca’s demands, improving his consistency and off-the-ball contributions. On the other hand, if Milan choose to cash in on Leão, they must have a clear plan to reinvest those funds wisely.

The revenue from his sale could create an opportunity to strengthen multiple positions, provided the management can avoid the pitfalls of further underwhelming signings.

The unexpected, morale-boosting win against Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night could transform the team’s fortunes. Or, it could turn out to be another red herring. Only time will tell.

However, this impressive victory over the Spanish giants – driven by Leão’s stand-out performance and Fonseca’s tactical adjustments – suggests that both player and coach may have a higher ceiling than recent results have shown.

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Although Leão’s scoring drought continues, he was a constant threat on the pitch, achieving the third-highest xA (expected assists) of the night and delivering a well-timed assist for Tijjani Reijnders’ goal. Both the club and fans will be looking for more of this from Leão, and hoping that he will find his scoring boots soon.

Nevertheless, at this pivotal juncture, the club’s choices will have lasting impacts. Leão’s future at Milan may hinge not only on his performances but on the direction Fonseca takes with his system and Milan’s patience with his methods. For Leão, a fresh start elsewhere might provide the environment he needs to refine his skills and aim for elite status.

Milan, meanwhile, would have to either recommit to Leão with renewed faith or accept that their future may benefit more from diversifying their strength rather than banking on a single star. These crossroads will determine not just Rafael Leão’s fate but AC Milan’s fortunes in the coming years.