Brighton v Southampton: Vote for Pedro at the Amex | OneFootball

English Premier League

Fabian Huerzeler has led Brighton to their best-ever Premier League start

Andy Schooler is backing Brighton's Joao Pedro to pounce on a shaky Southampton defence when the two sides meet in Friday Night Football...

Brighton v SouthamptonFriday 29 November, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

With 22 points gained from their first 12 matches, Brighton have made their best-ever start to a Premier League season.

And Friday Night Football's return provides them with a golden chance to continue that with a home meeting with rock-bottom Southampton.

Fabian Huerzeler's side - just 1.43 for victory - will bid another three points without suspended midfielder Carlos Baleba - sent off at Bournemouth last week - but should not be too concerned.

They've scored multiple goals in eight of their nine home games this season, including against champions Manchester City and leaders Liverpool. The odd game out was against Ipswich, a game the Seagulls dominated but could not find a breakthrough in.

Struggling Saints

Southampton's stats do not make good reading - it's just four points so far for the newly-promoted Saints, who have lost 10 of 12.

They've scored the fewest goals in the league and conceded the second most - not exactly a good combination.

Keeper Aaron Ramsdale and defender Jan Bednarek again look likely to miss out due to injury, with Adam Lallana and Paul Onuachu also doubts.

Despite all their problems, the visitors (8.0) will have taken something out of last week's home meeting with high-flying Liverpool.

They led 2-1 and had a strong penalty claim waved away at that stage before losing 3-2.

However, the key takeaway was - again - the way they conceded goals. All three were preventable, with the first an absolute shocker as Saints again failed dismally to play their way out of their own third and Flynn Downes compounding the error with one of the worst clearances you'll ever see at this level.

It is easy to see why Russell Martin's side have shipped so many goals and it's now 2+ goals conceded in seven of their last 10 in this competition.

Back Pedro to pay dividends

The player I expect to make them pay here is Joao Pedro.

He impressed with a goal and assist at Bournemouth last week and has made a strong impact since his return from injury, also finding the net in the last home game against Man City.

Overall, the Brazilian now has four goals in six appearances this season, including three in four starts. He's scored one every 117 minutes on the pitch, backing up his debut season at the Amex when he managed 20 goals in all competitions.

Pedro is also on penalty duty - he has an excellent record from the spot, while it's worth noting only Chelsea have conceded more penalties so far this season than Southampton.

Throw in both sides' form and I'm happy to back the forward to add to his tally in this contest.

Rutter heads props options

There also look some strong options in the props markets which should be of particular interest for those putting Bet Builders together for this televised showdown.

Perhaps the best such bet is Georginio Rutter to commit 2+ fouls.

The former Leeds man has managed this in six of his nine starts since his summer move and here he faces a side who are the fourth most fouled in the top flight.

11/10 looks too good to miss.

Sticking with the fouls markets, Joel Veltman is something of a surprise name on the 'fouled players' list this season but it goes to show what a key part the right-back is playing in Brighton's attack under Huerzeler.

Only Bruno Guimaraes and Cole Palmer have been fouled more so far, with the Dutchman drawing 2+ fouls in eight of 11 starts to date.

English Premier League - Top 5 Fouls Won

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He should get plenty of chances to push forward in this game and looks a good bet for a repeat at 4/5, especially when you consider ref Rob Jones is one of the best for awarding fouls.

Jones is averaging more than three fouls per game above the league average and sits top of the fouls-awarded list of those officials who have taken charge of multiple top-flight matches.

Harwood-Bellis offers shots value

Taylor Harwood-Bellis is another whose data is outperforming his odds.

The new England international's appeal comes in the shots markets where he's 5/6 to have 1+ shot.

The Southampton defender has delivered on this bet in eight of his last 10, scoring three goals in that period, so I'm sure plenty till be prepared to back him at 22/1 in the anytime scorer market. At this stage, it's worth mentioning that Brighton have never kept a clean sheet against Southampton in 12 Premier League games.

I'll stick with suggesting him for a three-legged Bet Builder, alongside Rutter and Veltman, one which pays around 13/2.

That could be a great way of kicking off your 'free-bet streak' with Betfair. Place a £10 bet on any sport on Saturday, and you will unlock your first £10 free bet once it settles (win or lose). You will then unlock another £10 free bet each time you win for up to seven days.

Opta fact

Brighton are the only team to be unbeaten when conceding the first goal in Premier League games this season (W2 D2). Meanwhile, Southampton have gone on to lose all eight games in which they've conceded first.

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Recommended bets

1.5pts Joao Pedro to score @ evens1pt Georginio Rutter to commit 2+ fouls @ 11/10

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 6pts Returned: 3.5pts P/L: -2.5pts

2023/24: +4.54pts