Bodo/Glimt v Tottenham: Comeback is on! Back Spurs to crash out at 5/1 | OneFootball

UEFA Europa League

Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou

Bodo/Glimt's imperious home form added to Tottenham's mental fragilities means the comeback is most certainly on in Norway, says Lewis Jones...

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Thursday 08 May, 20:00

Will Spurs freeze with so much on the line?

I just love the whole theatre about this game.

A footballing giant like Tottenham having to travel to the southern edge of the Arctic Circle to save their season - it feels like they're all having to slide into some space suits and head to a different planet. It's like something from a movie.

Once there, a plastic pitch awaits them - something they failed to adapt to earlier this season when drawing 0-0 with non-league Tamworth in 90 minutes before working it all out in extra-time.

At 3-0 down in the first leg, Bodo were done, but 3-1 makes a huge difference.

It's just all set up for a dramatic evening isn't it?

A two-goal cushion is one where teams in Tottenham's position can get a bit stuck in no-man's land between trying to play their normal game and pushing for another goal and just deciding to defend their lead. It's not a dangerous scoreline as the cliché suggests but it's certainly one that can cause mixed messaging in terms of how to fully take advantage of it.

Teams who have lost the first leg by two goals away from home in Champions League and Europa League knockout football have a 14 per cent qualification strike rate - so that's 23 teams have qualified from Bodo's position here from 162 fixtures. Make of that what you will.

And, Spurs were one of those teams to blow a two-goal lead in the Europa League last 16 in 2021 when they won the first leg 2-0 but lost the second leg 3-0 to Dinamo Zagreb.

No place like home for Bodo/Glimt

There is history when it comes to Bodo/Glimt's capabilities of winning games by two or more goals at home. Very relevant history.

In fact the Norwegian champions are used to winning at home two goals or more in Europe. This season they have already beaten Tel-Aviv, Twente, Olympiacos and Lazio at home by a two-goal margin or more. This challenge will hold no fear for them.

Overall, they've won nine of their ten home European matches this season and have scored three or more goals in 11 of the past 17.

The underlying numbers behind those games are extremely impressive.

They are averaging 2.27 worth of expected goals per 90 across those eight games and average 15.5 shots per 90, 5.9 shots on target per 90. Those are phenomenally consistent numbers and shows that they are not your typical minnows who defend in numbers and are ruthless with their chances - this is a properly aggressive and attack-minded team that are one of the best teams in Europe at home.

The best way to bet a Bodo/Glimt comeback

Bodo/Glimt to qualify has been shortening significantly in the build-up to this one - it's now 6.8 when it was trading at 8.5 on Monday. The belief and market confidence is certainly there.

It's the match odds market where there is such great value.

Again, the market is moving all the time in favour of Bodo/Glimt and any hope of getting near 2.0 on them with a +0.25 head start have long gone. So, it's now the draw no bet line at 2.05 which is the advised play as there still is juice to be had in the probabilities on offer.

This means we get a full stakes return at 2.05 if they win, which I think they will, and stakes are refunded if the game ends a draw. The only way we lose is if Spurs win the game, which they don't need to do.

And remember this is a Spurs team who have failed to win eight of their last nine games in the league and have lost 19 Premier League games this season - the most they've lost in a single season since 1912.

I'm convinced the market is overrating this Spurs team. Do they possess the mental strength and clear enough minds just to play the game not the occasion?

Once they get put under any pressure and have to try and ride a storm there is a big chance of them completely unravelling.

The comeback is on in the Arctic Circle.