Best Bets for MLS Week 20 | OneFootball

I am back with MLS Week 20 picks! Brace yourselves for some MLS chaos this week, when we have players missing on international break.  We are also coming off a week without an MLS match, which could stifle team form and throw us a loop.

Nevertheless, here are 6 Sportsbook picks for this weekend which I think have a likely chance of occurring.  All 6 are on my official card from MLS Week 20.

Match- Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls

In this, MLS’s week 20, I am showing confidence in my New York Red Bulls.  I think they will do fine offensively while only missing a trio of young attackers.

The Red Bulls could see a long awaited return of Lewis Morgan to the lineup, joining stars Emil Forsberg and Eric Choupo-Moting who have been coming into form.  While Red Bull were kept scoreless June 15th against Austin, they scored 8 goals in their last 4 matches and 16 in their last 8.  While they have only scored 5 times in their 9 away matches this season, those were against some tough defenses.  Their offensive form has since turned for the better, and Toronto is a great team to stack up 2 away goals, which would get us a +132 return.

Pick- RBNY Team Total Over 1.5 +132

Toronto FC have been losing a lot of close games and not letting opponents pile on goals, which kept their season totals surprisingly low. However, Toronto have allowed 2 or more goals in each of their last 3 home matches, and in 3 of their last 4. The loss of Richie Laryea and Deybi Flores on international duties, the season long injury to Gomis, and recent knocks to Federico Bernardeschi and Jonathan Osorio will be tactically and emotionally damaging to TFC’s chances.

However, being a home match for TFC, I will take Red Bulls on the team total instead of trusting any one result.  My MLS model shows this bet as hitting just under 41% of the time, and at +132 we’re getting great odds.

Match- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union

Another match in MLS week 20 where I give the away team an edge is when the Chicago Fire host the Philadelphia Union.  While no team may be missing as many influential players as the Union, it is worth noting that they won their last match over Charlotte with a similar lineup than will be available Wednesday night.  They are also fresh, having only played two games in June- on the 1st and 14th.

For Philadelphia, their academy has produced some great players recently, which is a blessing and a curse in a week where many will be unavailable.  On the other side of that coin, it also means they have depth to replace some key pieces.

Pick- Philadelphia Union Draw No Bet +130

The home/away splits favor Philadelphia, whose 5-1-2 road record and +5 goal differential is better than Chicago’s 1-4-2 home record with a -2 differential. Playing chicken, to account for missing players and a break which could change team form, I chose the Draw No Bet option at +130.

Match- FC Dallas vs SJ Earthquakes

For MLS Week 20, I can file FC Dallas hosting the San Jose Earthquakes under “not interested” as far as watching, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some sneaky plays this week.  While Dallas is coasting at 5-6-6, the Quakes find themselves at 6-5-7.  However, while Dallas has only scored 22 times, the Quakes found the back of the net 35 times, giving us an unbalanced offensive matchup.

FC Dallas will be without defender Osaze Urhoghide for at least another week with a leg injury.  That is bad news for the defense that has conceded 5 goals in their last 3 matches.

Pick- SJ Earthquakes Draw No Bet +120

I like San Jose, and any other team visiting Dallas, because of Dallas’s 1 win, 2 draw, and 4 loss home performance this season.  San Jose, meanwhile, is 3-2-4 on the road, getting results in 5 of their 9 road matches.  My official play is San Jose on the Draw No Bet at +120.

There is certainly risk here, but Dallas would have only blown up this bet in 1 of their 7 home matches, while Quakes would have only favored the house in 4 of their 9 away matches.

My betting model has San Jose with a 41.5% chance to win, and their odds to win at +200 present us with a 8.17% advantage on the sportsbook.  I’ll still play chicken because it is a midweek match, but one with a ton of value, even if you’re sprinkling the moneyline.

Match- Sporting KC vs Charlotte FC

The next MLS Week 20 match where I have action is Sporting KC hosting Charlotte FC.  While Sporting KC has a lot of risk this season, they have been doing some things right.  Their 2-2-4 home form isn’t pleasing, but scoring 14 times in 8 matches and seeing 32 total goals gives us a few angles to consider.

While Charlotte will be without Liel Abada, Patrick Agyemang, Tim Ream, and Bill Tuiloma on international duty, Sporting KC shouldn’t be missing anyone of significance.

Pick- Sporting KC Team Total Over 1.5 +114

My model is showing Sporting KC with a 50.38% chance of scoring twice, and the odds on that play at +114.  Getting plus money on any play with a better than 50% prediction of occurrence is a recipe for long term gambling success. A look at the numbers also backs my play.

Taking a closer look at the numbers, Sporting KC scored 9 total goals in their last 4 matches.  At home, SKC has scored 2 goals or more in 5 of 8 matches.  Charlotte has conceded 20 goals in their last 8 matches, and has conceded 20 times in their 10 away matches.

Match- Colorado Rapids vs LA Galaxy

Who doesn’t love a good under play on two teams who have struggled to find the back of the net?  That is what we have in MLS Week 20 where the Galaxy, averaging only 1 goal per game this season visit the Colorado Rapids, who match that underwhelming feat exactly.

Pick- Under 2.5 Goals +140

While the Galaxy have gotten slightly better on attack recently, the Rapids have fallen further out of form. The Rapids have 2 straight 1-0 home losses, and scored only a single goal in their previous 2 home games.

This match screams “UNDER” and getting +140 on the under 2.5 play is one of my favorites of the week. I’m divorcing myself from the result in favor of making total play here, and my model shows this having a 45.63% chance of hitting.

Match- Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego FC

The Vancouver Whitecaps are the class of the Western Conference, and they take on another strong team in San Diego during the last matchup of MLS Week 20. While I don’t have a word limit on these articles, the players Vancouver will miss would be a lengthy add; over 8 players are out or questionable, many on duty with the Canadian or American National Teams.

San Diego FC will be without a few standouts, but Anders Dreyer seems to be set to play, and Hirving Lozano will be a game time decision. This could be the week that SDFC makes a real statement win.  I, however, will find another way to get action here.

Pick- Over 2.5 Goals -128

Vancouver has seen a total of 45 goals in 17 matches, just over 2.6 goals per match.  San Diego has seen 52 goals in 18 matches, just under 2.9 goals per match.  I see goals here, and my model has the over hitting 56.68% of the time.

It is worth noting that with Vancouver at 35 points and San Diego at 33, a win for SDFC will put them atop the West, and any other result for Vancouver will see them retain their first place spot. No other teams can finish week 20 ahead in the Western Conference Standings.

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