Aston Villa v Man Utd: Hosts to cover handicap in 19/1 Bet Builder says Opta | OneFootball

Ahead of their meeting this weekend, the respective moods at both of these clubs could not be more different.

Aston Villa come into this on the back of one of their most famous victories in modern history, while Manchester United are currently closer to the Premier League relegation zone than the top four.

But before placing your bets, let's have a look at where the data says your money should go.

Some juice in Villa's price

Given the differing fortunes of both teams, it's no surprise that Aston Villa are heavy favourites to win. While the price might shift between the time of writing and Sunday afternoon, they remain eminently backable at 6/5.

Based purely on form, there is no contest as to who you should back. Unai Emery's side have won seven of their nine matches in all competitions this season, with their only defeat coming against current title favourites Arsenal in August.

Their 1-0 win at home to Bayern Munich also means that they are one of seven teams in the Champions League with a 100% record after two matches.

Villa's most recent league result was a 2-2 draw away to Ipswich, which has to go down as a disappointing one, especially having held the lead from the 32nd minute through to Liam Delap's equaliser with 18 to go.

But looking at their form, the body of evidence so far suggests that is an outlier rather than anything more sinister.

Manchester United, meanwhile, surrendered a two-goal lead against Porto on Thursday and needed a stoppage-time Harry Maguire goal to rescue a draw, meaning they are winless in four in all competitions. They were also abject in their 3-0 home defeat against Tottenham on Sunday and come into this with just two victories in their opening six league games.

The result also means that they have gone eight league games without a victory against any of the Big Six. While Aston Villa are not traditionally part of that group of clubs, the run can be used to give context as to how United might perform here given that Villa finished in the top four last season.

Wasteful United to get on the scoresheet

It's worth pointing out that one of the main reasons behind the visitors' disappointing start to the season has been their inability to finish chances, rather than a lack of creativity.

Manchester United are the biggest xG underperformers in the Premier League, with a figure of -5.55 when comparing goals scored (five) to xG generated (10.55).

Their wastefulness is also laid bare when considering that they rank fourth in the Premier League for their average xG per shot (0.13 from 79 shots), which suggests that their players are having decent opportunities to score.

But with a conversion rate of just 6.33% - the third-lowest in the division - it's no surprise that only second-bottom Southampton have scored fewer than the five United have managed.

For context, Aston Villa have had an average xG of 0.14 per shot (equal-second in the Premier League) and have conversion rate of 17.39% (second).

Bruno Fernandes has been a chief culprit of Manchester United's wastefulness, having had 17 shots with just three on target and zero goals - the most shots of any player in the top five European divisions without a goal.

He has an average of 3.4 shots per game if you take out the Tottenham game, in which he was sent off in the first half without having had any attempts. He is available at 11/10 to have three or more shots at Villa Park, having had his red card overturned.

It's also worth pointing out that he will serve his suspension for his red card against Porto - his second in two games - in the Europa League. But he could be of interest at 2/1 to be carded.

Before United fans hide behind the sofa ahead of their trip to Villa Park, the data suggests that having plenty of shots could be a decent tactic.

That is because goalkeeper Emi Martinez has not been at his brilliant best so far this season, despite what the narrative surrounding him says.

While Martinez is clearly a talented player who made some key late stops against Bayern, he has the second-lowest save percentage (59.09%) in the Premier League this season of goalkeepers to have played every game.

Martinez has conceded nine league goals from an xGOT figure - a metric that tracks how difficult a shot was to save - of 7.3. As such, we can calculate his total number of goals prevented at -1.7 or, in other words, he has underperformed.

Since the start of last season, he has also made five errors that have led to a shot from the opposition - only Arijanet Muric has made more during spells at Ipswich and Burnley.

Martinez is also without a clean sheet in the league this season, while the nine goals Villa have conceded are more than any other team in the top half. That is despite playing in front of a decent defence, which has allowed just 21 shots on target - the fifth-fewest in the division.

What all of this means in terms of bets is that it is understandable why BTTS is as short as 40/85 and that over 2.5 goals is 8/15. The step up to 11/8 for over 3.5 goals is appealing, considering that this has landed in each of Villa's last three league games.

At 16/5, Fernandes should also be of interest to finally get on the board. The 30-year-old has got into double figures in all competitions in each of the last eight seasons, while he is also a set-piece taker.

If Watkins doesn't get you, Duran probably will

The issue that United could be faced with on Sunday is keeping the goals out at the other end.

Their defeat to Tottenham last weekend was the eighth time that United have lost by three goals or more in the Premier League under Erik ten Hag. Only Gary O'Neil, David Moyes and Sean Dyche have had more during the timeframe of his tenure. In comparison, United have won just seven games by the same margin or more in that period.

The 10 matches in all competitions that they have lost by three or more goals is double that of any manager since Sir Alex Ferguson was in charge. As a result, the -1 handicap for Villa looks a generous price at 16/5.

In terms of goalscorers, there are two Aston Villa players who jump off the page of the sportsbook.

Firstly, Ollie Watkins has four league goals in his last three appearances, while the 2-2 draw with Ipswich last weekend was the eighth Premier League match in which he both scored and assisted - a club record. He is 10/11 to score or assist.

Next is man of the moment Jhon Duran, who is fresh from scoring a match-winning lob against Bayern on Wednesday. The Colombian has scored six goals in nine matches in all competitions, but he is yet to start a league game this season.

While Duran's performances may earn him the nod from the start this weekend, his stats are such that an expectation he will start from the bench needn't put you off backing him to score at 11/8.

He has averaged a league goal with every 23 touches this season. Of the eight players to have scored at least four Premier League goals, only Erling Haaland has a better touch-to-goal ratio than Duran.