Analysis: Crunching the Numbers Behind Liverpool’s Upcoming Clash with Brentford | OneFootball

Liverpool vs Brentford: A Statistical Analysis of an Intriguing Matchup

Liverpool’s upcoming fixture against Brentford promises to be a fascinating encounter, with both sides bringing distinct tactical approaches to the game. Dr Phil Barter and Dave Davis, on the Stat Me Up Special podcast for Anfield Index, delved into the numbers and patterns ahead of this clash. From Brentford’s defensive vulnerabilities to their aerial strengths, here’s an analytical breakdown of what to expect.

Brentford’s Defensive Fragility: Opportunities for Liverpool?

Brentford have been inconsistent this season, with a tendency to concede goals at a high rate. As Dr Phil Barter put it, “They have conceded 26, 10, 24, 14, 21 shots… they concede a lot of shots right now.” This suggests Liverpool will likely dominate the shot count, something that has been crucial in their recent games.

Barter further explained Brentford’s defensive xG (expected goals), stating, “They should have conceded 37, and they have conceded 37, so they’re pretty much bang on where they do right. They are conceding over a goal a game for a reason.” Liverpool, with their attacking firepower, will see this as an area to exploit.

Brentford’s Attacking Threat: Set-Piece and Aerial Dominance

Despite their defensive frailties, Brentford possess a clear offensive identity. They rely heavily on their aerial prowess and set-piece efficiency. “What Brentford do is they look to overload you defensively and offensively in the box on set plays,” Barter pointed out, highlighting how Thomas Frank’s side maximise their physicality.

Photo: IMAGO

Liverpool will need to be wary of this, especially given their recent vulnerability in aerial duels. “We’re not defending our box as well as we were doing,” admitted Barter. With Canate not at full fitness and other defensive uncertainties, this could be an area of concern.

Liverpool’s Defensive Issues: Can Brentford Exploit the Right Flank?

A recurring theme in the podcast discussion was Liverpool’s defensive imbalance, particularly on the right. Barter noted how opposition teams have increasingly targeted this area, stating, “Teams have taken the opportunity with Konate out to double down their attack down the right.” If Brentford adopt a similar approach, Liverpool could find themselves under pressure.

Additionally, individual errors have been a major issue. “From away, a lot of the goals that have happened along this period have been individual errors,” Barter explained, citing examples from the Newcastle and Forest games. Minimising these mistakes will be crucial against a Brentford side that thrives on capitalising on defensive lapses.

Photo: IMAGO

How Liverpool Can Win: Controlling Possession and Tempo

Liverpool’s key to success, according to the analysis, will be dictating possession and ensuring Brentford do not turn the game into a chaotic, end-to-end contest. “We have to try and play our usual game but cause them stress by making them play, making them move around as much as we can,” said Barter.

Dave Davis added an interesting perspective on Brentford’s style, remarking, “They tend to be more of a basketball side than anything else. Might that actually suit us in this one?” While Liverpool used to thrive in high-tempo, transitional matches, their current setup under Arne Slot leans towards control rather than chaos.

Photo: IMAGO

Final Thoughts

This game has all the ingredients of a tricky fixture for Liverpool. Brentford’s aerial strength, deep block, and ability to score early make them a dangerous opponent. However, their defensive openness presents Liverpool with the chance to dominate the game if they can avoid individual errors and control possession.

As Barter concluded, “It is a must-win. They score a lot. They concede a lot. They are dangerous on set plays. We need to find ourselves on the right side.” If Liverpool can execute their game plan effectively, they should have enough quality to secure the three points.