Why Over/Under Goals Bets Are The Best For Liverpool FC | OneFootball

Today, we’re looking at why an over/under goals bet is usually the best when Liverpool are playing. You can bet on all sorts of things during a match, but if you want the highest chance of getting your prediction correct, move away from guessing the result and focus on the goals scored instead.

Multiple goals markets exist but the over/under one is particularly prominent and tends to feature as the top market at the non-GamStop sportsbooks listed by NonGamStopOdds. It’s a simple Yes or No bet (which is probably why so many punters love it) but why should you choose this market when The Reds are playing?

We’ve done some research and think you’ll be happy with what we found…

66% of Liverpool’s matches involved over 2.5 goals

We got all of our stats from Stats Checker for this post and we’ll begin with a big one. Two-thirds of our games in the 2023/24 season ended with over 2.5 goals. Four of the last six games in that season were in this bracket and we tend to be a team that loves scoring goals.

In the Premier League, we scored at least 2 goals at home in 15 out of 19 matches.

That is fairly absurd – but of those 15 games, we scored at least 3 goals 12 times! How mad is that? We’re effectively reaching the over 2.5 goals a game threshold on our own when playing at home. And let’s be totally honest, our defence isn’t always the best. We tend to let a goal slip here or there when playing away from home, so that means we need at least 2 to win the match.

An over 2.5 goals in a game bet is a pretty risky bet by all means. Still, the stats prove that 66% of the time, you’re going to win it when betting on Liverpool – especially if you back us at home.

92% of games featured over 1.5 goals

From over 2.5 goals to something a bit more realistic for consistent wins. Betting on there being more than 1.5 goals in a game effectively means you think there will be 2 or more. As demonstrated above, we hit this mark on our own in the majority of home games – but did you know that 92% of our games last season finished with 2 or more goals?

It’s as close to a safe bet as you’ll ever get when sticking a wager on The Reds.

Statistically speaking, if you placed the same amount of money on an over 1.5 bet across every Liverpool game in the league last season, you’d end up making an overall profit. Yes, there will be different odds for different games, but if there’s a 92% hit rate for the bet, it’s almost impossible to lose.

Arne Slot’s teams score lots of goals

Of course, let’s not forget we have a new manager at the helm now! The Klopp era is over, heralding the beginning of Arne Slot’s time in charge. So far, an analysis of Arne Slot’s start is pretty positive. We’ve not conceded a goal in the league and we’re scoring at least 2 goals per game – including a boisterous 3-0 against Manchester United.

This means we can technically fulfil the over 1.5 bets alone so far this season. And while we’re talking about that, it’s worth noting you can bet on teams to specifically score over/under goals in a match. If the odds for the game featuring over 1.5 goals aren’t great, stick the bet on Liverpool as a team and it’s got a great chance of winning.

Back to the point at hand, Arne Slot’s start has replicated what his teams tend to be like. During his time at Feyenoord, he was known for developing a free-scoring team that loved to hit the back of the net. They managed a whopping 41 goals in his last season, 44 the year before that and 37 in his first season with the club. All of these figures were the most goals in the league (barring 41 in 23/24 as PSV scored a ridiculous 57 goals in 34 games).

It looks like a no-brainer to me; you’ve got one of the highest-scoring teams in the Premier League over the last few seasons paired with a manager who loves setting teams up to score lots of goals. We’re bound to accumulate loads of high-scoring games – so over/under goals bets are the best way forward!