Why January 2024 is being called 'the worst January window of all time' | OneFootball

Highlights

The 2024 January transfer window was so underwhelming that you'd be forgiven for not even realising Premier League clubs were allowed to conduct business last month. This time last year, Chelsea had just made Enzo Fernandes the competition's all-time record signing, forking out £106.8m to land him from Benfica. Fast forward to the start of 2024 and the most expensive acquisition of the month was centre-back Radu Dragusin, who cost Tottenham a mere fraction of that fee at £26m and won't even be a guaranteed starter for Ange Postecoglou.

Five clubs didn't make any signings whatsoever - including some of the league's most financially well-endowed teams in Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle - and when excluding loans and free transfers, ten clubs didn't spend any money at all on new recruits. That explains why social media is awash with Premier League fans declaring the 2024 edition to be the worst January transfer window of all time.

The statistics suggest that description is fair, albeit with the one big caveat of January 2021 in the midst of the pandemic, when transfer activity was understandably almost non-existent. Excepting that transfer window, January 2024 saw the least number of overall signings, permanent signings and permanent exits, as well as the second-least overall exits. It therefore saw the least number of combined exits and signings.

But if we measure overall activity by the number of combined exits and signings, why did January 2024 produce a record-low total? While each club had their own specific motivations for limiting their business in the mid-season market, a number of division-wide trends have become apparent. GIVEMESPORT explores the most significant factors below.

Disclaimer: When referring to Total Loans, any loans between two Premier League clubs will count as two. While not entirely accurate, this provides consistency throughout the article. For clarity, transfers between two Premier League clubs will also count as two when referring to 'exits and signings'.

The January transfer window is in decline

Number of deals has decreased since 2014

January 2024 hasn't happened in a vacuum and the numbers show the mid-season window has been dwindling for a number of years. Ever since peaking at 256 combined exits and signings in January 2013, the level of has steadily reduced. The following year it continued a 13-year trend of at least 200 exits and signings taking place since the inception of transfer windows in 2002/03, but by 2017 the total had dropped to 156 and it has failed to return north of that number during the seven subsequent winter windows. Although there has been an uplift in recent years after an all-time low of 114 exits and signings in January 2021 (oweing to the Coronavirus pandemic), the overall trend suggests clubs are less excited by the January window than they used to be.

Curiously though, it's player exits where the deficit has been most significant. While the number of signings has fluctuated and crashed down to just 26 in January 2021, it also bounced back by hitting 67 last season - the third-highest amount of January signings to date. On the other hand, exits have moved steadily downward ever since reaching 194 in 2013, and last term's 87 was the lowest number of exits in the history of the winter window. January 2024 saw a slight improvement, but there is an overarching trend of mid-season exits sharply declining.

Huge Wages and Loan Restrictions

Clubs face new difficulties when offloading players

One potential explanation for the steady decline in permanent exits is the huge, huge wages on offer in the Premier League compared to the rest of the world. The Premier League's average player earnings is over £1m per-year higher than any other major European top flight. Therefore, finding homes for high-earning players who would rather sit on the bench than sacrifice their salaries has become more difficult.

The other factor is the increasingly stringent rules around loan deals, which have been steadily tightened in recent years. This season, clubs are only allowed to loan in seven players and loan out seven players, excluding under-21 players who have trained at the club for at least three years. Clubs also cannot loan more than three players to the same team within the same season, and clubs are not allowed more than five loan players in any matchday squad. These regulations force clubs to be more selective about their loan signings, which in turn limits opportunities for Premier League clubs to offload players to the EFL and the rest of Europe.

Traditionally, the January window has been an ideal time to strike loan deals as clubs look for temporary solutions to their problems until they reach the summer window, where the market for buying players is far better. But the rules around loans are making that harder and harder, chipping away at one of the winter window's primary functions. While the proportion of loan deals has actually risen in recent years compared to permanent ones, the actual number has slumped.

Profit and Sustainability rules

Everton and Nottingham Forest charges set a precedent

Everton and Nottingham Forest's charges for breaching the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Laws couldn't have come at a worse time for the January window. While they may tempt any clubs flirting with the PSR thresholds to take decisive action and start selling their stock, the nature of the Premier League's new financial regulation system is to ensure stability and long-term thinking. Clubs can't rush into making big-money signings, but they can't rush into offloading players either.

They need player sales to meet specific valuations to avoid growing deficits and infringing upon their ability to spend later down the line. While it may have once made sense to simply 'write off' players who weren't performing and sell them to the first suitor that emerges, more diligence and nuance is now required. Selling players at certain times may be more beneficial than others based on the length of their contract and the money on offer. In any case, the knee-jerk nature of the January window compared to its usually more thought-out counterpart makes it a tough sell to any clubs already concerned with PSR.

Whereas the Premier League's appetite for enforcing their own financial rules previously appeared ambiguous, the charges against Forest and Everton - not to mention the latter already receiving a ten-point deduction for similar breaches - provided a stark and timely warning to any clubs who were considering rolling the dice in January.

Clubs did their business at the start of the season

Hangover from record-breaking transfer window

A hugely underwhelming January was preceded by a record-breaking summer for the Premier League. The £2.4billion spent on new signings blew the previous record of £1.9billion from summer 2022 out the water, while the pre-season window also saw the most signings and the most combined exits and signings for at least five years. According to Deloitte, 14 of the Premier League's 20 clubs outspent themselves from the previous summer. Speaking to GIVEMESPORT, journalist Ben Jacobs identified a huge summer as one of the factors behind January being so slow.

Lack of jeopardy in the Premier League

Less pressure to spend in a segmented division

Every Premier League club will have areas of the squad that would've benefitted from a reshuffle last month - no team is ever perfect. But there was a lack of urgency to address shortfalls at the start of 2024 and that's probably because this season already feels like a foregone conclusion with numerous closed-shop mini-leagues emerging. There are clear clevages between different areas of the table and while it would be foolish to take anything for granted, most teams will feel their potential to climb up or slump down the table is capped off for one reason or another - and that situation wouldn't have changed by taking a risk in in January. This is something transfer expert Dean Jones recently explained to GIVEMESPORT.

Perhaps the only exceptions to this are Aston Villa, Tottenham and West Ham, who could all capitalise on strong starts to 2023/24 to finish higher than expected in the table and potentially even qualify for Champions League football. But they were among Premier League's most active clubs in January. Tottenham were quick to sign Radu Dragusin - the most expensive deal of the entire window - and Timo Werner, while West Ham brought in Kalvin Phillips on an expensive loan deal. Aston Villa, meanwhile, made the most signings of any club (four).

The summer transfer window will be huge

Osimhen, Toney, Salah, De Bruyne and Mbappe could all be on the move

The January window's dearth of meaningful activity suggests clubs are saving their resources to pull off some huge business in the summer. There are already rumours of Manchester United holding a £100m clear-out and as it will be Sir Jim Radcliffe's first summer transfer window at Old Trafford, it's likely those recouped fees will be used immediately to provide much-needed improvements to Erik ten Hag's first-team squad.

Meanwhile, Napoli's star striker Victor Osimhen has already strongly hinted that he'll leave the club in the summer with Chelsea and Arsenal - two clubs desperately in need of a reliable No.9 - expected to compete for his services. Brentford's Ivan Toney represents a plausible alternative, and now his eight-month suspension for betting offences has ended, an end-of-season move appears inevitable. At that point, his contract will have just twelve months left to run.

Speaking of which, there are a number of high-profile players whose contracts will enter their final year in the summer, which is usually when clubs are forced to sell. That includes Mohamed Salah - Ben Jacobs recently informed GIVEMESPORT that a move to Saudi Arabia in the summer remains a possibility - and Kevin De Bruyne, another rumoured target for the Saudi league. Kylian Mbappe's situation shouldn't be forgotten either; his expected free transfer to Real Madrid this summer could well have a knock-on effect for the top-end of the Premier League.

All this expected activity at the Premier League's summit will most likely lead to more deals lower down the table.