What do the Analytics Say About Brandt's Regression? | OneFootball

Julian Brandt has had a disappointing season playing as Dortmund’s number 10 this year. His numbers are down to their lowest per 90’ since the 2020/21 season. He has only two goal contributions in the Bundesliga since December and hasn’t been an enjoyable player to watch. What has gone wrong for the German and what do the statistics show?

Brandt has been underperforming this season when using expected goals (xG) and assists (xA). In contrast, he has overperformed in the previous three seasons. This suggests that his numbers this season show a more accurate representation of the player than a true regression in ability. The table below shows his numbers over the past few Bundesliga seasons gathered from statistics website, Fbref. All data shown highlights per 90’ statistics.

Brandt drastically over-performed in relation to his expected output in the past three seasons. While this year shows a slight underperformance, it is not one that deserves overwhelming criticism. The overperformance of years prior may have put undeserved expectations on the German for this season. An underperformance should see criticism, but it is probably amplified due to his output the three seasons prior. There are a few key statistics that may be the reason for the drop-off this year.