Weighing up the evidence: Have INEOS already sacked Erik ten Hag? | OneFootball

Why were so many of the Manchester United players in tears after winning the FA Cup final against Manchester City yesterday?

Releasing some emotion after what has been a frustrating season full of brutal criticism for the team’s – and individuals’ – performances could be the simple answer to that question.

Yet it is natural to also suspect the sadness was due to the fact that they knew they had delivered Erik ten Hag, their manager, the greatest send-off he could have asked for. Tears of sympathy for a man who will be fired. Tears, perhaps, of guilt that they had not been able to do better sooner and that he had paid the price.

There are two very strong lines of reporting, one claiming the decision was made to sack Ten Hag weeks ago and that yesterday’s victory would not affect that decision. Transfer guru Gianluca Di Marzio, The Guardian’s Jacob Steinberg and Viaplay pundit Jan-Aage Fjortoft were among the reputable sources making this claim.

On the other hand, other reputable sources – The Athletic’s David Ornstein and Laurie Whitwell, The BBC’s Simon Stone and United themselves insist the decision has not been made, with the former saying it will be made this week.

Another transfer guru, Fabrizio Romano, has insisted that the outcome of yesterday’s game and the way the players handled themselves on the occasion would decide the outcome.

Then there is Ten Hag himself, who has informed reporters both that he has been told he is staying, and that he doesn’t know if he is staying or not. In yesterday’s post-match press conference he seemed to contradict himself. The insistent “they don’t have to tell me every week. When they don’t want me anymore, then I will hear it but they have told me many times [that I am staying]” was juxtaposed with the defiant “if they don’t want me here, I’ll go somewhere else to win trophies because that’s what I did my whole career”, not the kind of thing you say if you have been told your job is safe.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe was asked after yesterday’s match if the manager was staying and simply blanked the question and walked away. Surely, if INEOS had told Ten Hag “many times” that he is staying, it would have been simple for Sir Jim to say so at that moment.

Even the photo of Ten Hag at the top of this article tells a story. There is a sadness in his face, although this could also be interpreted as anger at the way he perceives he has been treated by the media and social media. Or just plain uncertainty as to what INEOS might have in store for him.

One thing seems clear – the decision that Ten Hag will stay at United has not been made, at least not yet.

Whether or not the decision has already been made to fire him is less clear, but the weight of evidence suggests it has been.

If The Athletic and BBC are getting their information from the club, then they are bound to be told the decision has not yet been made. Why? Because the club would not want Ten Hag to have to lead his team to the cup final already a condemned man; because timing of the announcement had to take into account the effect of share prices on the NYSE; and because Sir Jim, sitting in the stands, would have seemed like “a villain on a par with the unseen hunter who killed Bambi’s mother”, to quote The Telegraph’s Oliver Brown.

Likewise, Ten Hag’s obfuscation over the issue could be explained by the fact he has a non-disclosure agreement with the club and has been told not to say anything.

The biggest reason of all to suspect that the decision has already been made is simply, why wouldn’t it have been? Why would INEOS wait until a week after the season ends to start a process that needs to be sorted out as quickly as possible? The new manager needs to get started and plan his new season as soon as the old one ends, if not before.

INEOS have surely got to where they are in the world by thinking three steps ahead. They will surely already know. With all due respect to Romano, these are world-leading businessmen, would they simply roll the dice based on the result of one 90-minute football match?

The players’ apparent fondness for the Dutchman, and that of the fans on the back of yesterday’s victory, does not detract from some brutal facts this season. It was United’s worst ever Premier League finish. A record number of losses. A record number of goals conceded. The football played was dour and naïve.

After yesterday’s game, Jonny Evans said in an interview “over the last month or so [Ten Hag]’s shown incredible technical flexibility to be able to sit off counter attack, a style he doesn’t see himself coaching, but he’s done it and over the last month or so we’ve put in some much better performances.”

You have to ask, why did it take until the last month of the season for Ten Hag to show that flexibility? Is Evans by suggestion saying he was not flexible until the last few weeks? And as that is around the time new technical director Jason Wilcox joined, might rumours be true that Ten Hag only adopted this “style he doesn’t see himself coaching” under orders from his new boss?

“Why did United leave it until the last game of the domestic calendar to produce the type of sumptuous one-touch football that yielded Kobbie Mainoo’s decisive second goal?” Brown continues in his Telegraph article. “Where had this electrifying version of Marcus Rashford, previously prone to indolence, been for the past nine months? Why did Sofyan Amrabat wait for perhaps his farewell appearance to show that he could be effective in front of the defence?”

Ten Hag’s answer is simple: that it was all impossible before because the team was so unsettled due to injury. Now he had Licha and Rapha back, even though they weren’t match fit, he proved what he could do without injuries.

Those of us that watch every press conference Ten Hag gives have heard countless times him blaming the injuries sustained this season for the poor campaign. We have heard him say over and again that you don’t understand football if you think he could have done any better with that disruption. It has come across like child-like defiance and blind stubbornness.

Of course the injuries were horrendous. But Ten Hag ignores the point that some of United’s competitors had similar problems and still finished above them in the league – Newcastle being a good example. He also takes no responsibility for what caused so many injuries, showed no willingness to change the training methods that were clearly (at best) not helping, nor rotate his side more to avoid stress injuries and burnout.

An almost full season of flogging a dead horse trying to impose a tactic that was not working may in itself be grounds for dismissal.

Brown says Ratcliffe will ask himself “how a team with 14 defeats in a single league campaign can still reach giddy heights when the mood takes them” and this question of motivation is surely as important as the tactical one. Of course, it is natural that players might find an extra 1% of effort in an important match such as this final. But is it harsh to say that if this was 100% effort, during the rest of the season we only witnessed 70% or less? Playing for Manchester United demands much, much more.

With INEOS’ new structure in place, recruitment and renewals will be out of the manager’s hands (other than a power of veto). The overarching game ethos and playing style will also be decided by the director of football and technical director. With these elements no longer part of his remit, the Manchester United manager’s job will simply be tactics, training and motivation. Unfortunately for Ten Hag, these are the three areas that have been an abject failure this season.

As Brown concludes, “On the surface, this jubilant spring day offers nothing but the balm of vindication for Ten Hag. Ratcliffe’s failure to recognise him explicitly, however, hints at an ill wind blowing his way.” Harsh as it may seem, this probably has been Erik ten Hag’s last game as manager of Manchester United.

Want to be the first to hear breaking Man United news? For carefully selected, crucial updates, join our WhatsApp channel: https://bit.ly/United-Breaking-News.