Wednesday Football Tips: Combine cards and fouls for 3/1 shot | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Felipe Fernandes de Lima is one of Brazil's strictest referees

Cards and fouls look highly likely when a strict referee and two feisty teams collide in Brazil's Serie A on Wednesday night, according to Andy Schooler...

Sao Paulo v BotafogoWednesday 24 July, 23:30

Fair play to Botafogo.

After one of football's great chokes in last season's Serie A title race - they led by 14 points at one stage but finished only fifth - they are back on top this term as they approach the halfway stage.

They've won their last five but on Wednesday face a tricky trip to Sao Paulo, who sit fifth and are also enjoying a strong campaign - they've won five of their last seven in the league and are safely through to the knockout stage of the Copa Libertadores.

In short, this should be a decent game but, looking at it from a props punter's perspective, it should also be feisty.

In statistical terms, Botafogo have bullied their way to the top. They are first in the league for fouls committed and second for cards received.

Here, they face a Sao Paulo team fourth on the cards front, seventh for fouls committed and seventh for fouls drawn.

Basically, we can expect plenty of cards and fouls - especially when you also consider who the referee is.

Felipe Fernandes de Lima is one of Brazil's strictest officials. He's averaged 7.13 yellow cards per game across his eight Serie A appointments this year, also showing two reds. The league average is 5.18.

If that sample is too small, he was also above 7 on the same metric last season.

As for fouls per game, de Lima is up at 31, again well above the league average of 28.67.

Leg 1: Botafogo over 2.5 cards

So, what's the betting approach?

Well, let's start with cards and put Botafogo down for over 2.5.

That's landed in 15 of their last 24 games in all competitions and with this referee and opponent, they can deliver again.

Leg 2: Sao Paulo over 1.5 cards

Sao Paulo are also included for 2+ cards, something they've managed in 12 of their last 13 matches.

Braver punters may want to take the higher line given the referee and opponent.

Leg 3: Bastos to commit 1+ foul

Moving onto fouls, Bastos continues to look overpriced in the player market.

His fouls record was highlighted in this column recently only for him to have a clean game!

However, that was very much an outlier. He's now on a run of committing at least one foul in 12 of his last 14 appearances.

The centre-back looks set for a tough night against one of the league's best attacks and given the referee, I'm more than happy to include him in our Bet Builder.

Finally, let's also add Luiz Henrique for 1+ foul.

The Botafogo winger has landed this in six of his last seven starts and, looking longer term, 14 of his last 18.

Away against a strong opponent, you'd expect him to have more work to do defensively too.

3/1 shot - let the chaos commence!

Recommended bets

Back Botafogo over 2.5 cards, Sao Paulo over 1.5 cards and Bastos & Luiz Henrique to commit 1+ foul each @ 3/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 9pts Returned: 10.4pts P/L: +1.4pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts