UEL preview: Roma vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

SempreMilan

·17 April 2024

UEL preview: Roma vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan travel to the capital on Thursday night to face AS Roma in the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final hoping to mount a comeback after the defeat at San Siro.

Gianluca Mancini’s first half header was enough for Roma to emerge victorious in the first leg and give Daniele De Rossi’s men something to defend, but Milan will not give up on their European dream easily.

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In his pre-match press conference Stefano Pioli insisted that his side have the belief and preparation to go and overturn the scoreline, but it will be a tall order at a sold out and hostile Stadio Olimpico.

Game date: Thursday, April 18Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST)Venue: Stadio OlimpicoReferee: Szymon Marciniak (VAR: Frankowski)

Team news

As mentioned, the comeback mission is on for Milan after a very flat performance in the first leg, a game they arguably should have still drawn given the chances missed and the late penalty shout not given.

There are three players unavailable for Pioli due to injury: Pierre Kalulu and Tommaso Pobega who are still recovering from long-term problems, and Simon Kjaer who experienced flexor discomfort in the draw against Sassuolo so will not be risked.

There are two important returns. The first is Mike Maignan between the posts, after his absence in Reggio Emilia, and the second is Fikayo Tomori at the centre of defence paired with Matteo Gabbia.

The Englishman missed the first leg due to disqualification and the game against Sassuolo to avoid a yellow card which would have taken him out of the derby. Davide Calabria and Theo Hernandez should complete the back four.

In the midfield double pivot it seems very likely that Ismael Bennacer and Tijjani Reijnders will be the pair used, though there are doubts about who will operate ahead of them.

Pioli could confirm the usual four, i.e. the Pulisic-Loftus-Leao trident behind the lone striker Giroud. However, Samuel Chukwueze’s form gives him a dilemma, so the idea of Pulisic being the attacking midfielder so the Nigerian plays on the right (RLC on the bench) cannot be ruled out.

Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo; Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud.

The opponents

In case you missed it, we spoke to our resident Romanista Euan Burns in the first leg preview about the summer business that they did, their season to this point, the decision to sack Jose Mourinho and other topics related to the tie.

We enlisted his help again to provide a reflection on what could be called a masterclass in the game at San Siro and what he is expected from the return fixture.

From a Roma perspective, how do you feel the first leg went?

“It was certainly successful as any away victory in a European knockout match is. Any Roma fan would have taken that scoreline before kick-off, but there were actually spells in the game where they could have added to the lead.

“Milan were rocking at the start of the second half, but they did create more towards the end so it felt like the right result.”

How do you expect Roma to line-up for the second leg? Are there any injuries or other absences?

“There seems like little reason for De Rossi to tinker with things too much. Stephan El Shaarawy is expected to play on the right again, not that it will be a surprise this time but it can still be effective.

“Obviously, Evan Ndicka is not going to feature given the events of the weekend. Gianluca Mancini was rested against Udinese, as were Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini, so there are three key players who will be fresh.

“Bryan Cristante is suspended which is a blow, but De Rossi has already said that Edoardo Bove will take his place.”

Probable Roma XI (4-3-3): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Smalling, Spinazzola; Bove, Paredes, Pellegrini; El Shaarawy, Lukaku, Dybala.

Head to head

Roma are joint-third in the list of clubs that Milan have faced the most in their history, with the sides having clashed on 198 occasions across all competitions. The Rossoneri have 84 wins in that span, plus 62 draws and 52 defeats.

Milan completed the league double over the Giallorossi, which began with a 2-1 victory at the Studio Olimpico on September 1 with Giroud (penalty) and Leao scoring.

It was 3-1 in the return game, with Adli scoring his first goal for the club and Giroud doubling the advantage early in the second half, before Theo sealed the win after Paredes’ spot kick had halved the deficit.

However, the most recent meeting was obviously last week and the side from the capital won, their first victory against the Diavolo since 2019.

Match facts…

➤ Roma have lost three of their last four home games against Milan in all competitions (D1), more than they had in their previous 16 against them (W7 D7 L2).

➤ Milan have already won 2-1 at Roma in Serie A this season – the last team to win two away games against them in the same campaign were Fiorentina in 2014-15.

➤ This is Roma’s third home game in European competition against a fellow Italian side – they beat Internazionale 1-0 in the 1991 UEFA Cup final second leg, and lost 3-0 to Fiorentina in the 2014-15 UEFA Europa League round of 16.

➤ Milan have only lost one of their six European away games against fellow Italian sides (W2 D3), though it did come in their most recent such match against Internazionale in last season’s UEFA Champions League.

➤ After their 1-0 win in the first leg, Roma are looking to win both legs of a major European competition knockout tie for the first time since the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League last 16 vs Shakhtar Donetsk, while they have never previously done so against a fellow Italian side.

➤ Milan have been eliminated from each of the last eight occasions they have lost at home in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie in major European competitions, last progressing in the inaugural 1955-56 European Cup first round against 1. FC Saarbrücken after losing the first leg 3-4 (7-5 on aggregate).

➤ Milan had 25 shots in the first leg against Roma without scoring, the second time this season they have had so many without scoring in a European fixture (also 25 v Newcastle in the Champions League in September). Before this season, they last had 25+ shots in a game in major European competition without scoring in October 2005 v PSV in the UEFA Champions League (27).

➤ Gianluca Mancini scored Roma’s winner in the first leg against Milan, while the last player to score in both legs of the same two-legged knockout tie for the club in major European competition was Edin Dzeko vs Manchester United in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League semi-finals.

Ones to watch

Given that Milan have to win the game on the night to stand a chance of progressing, all eyes will be on Leao and Giroud who have previously been the men for the big occasion. Both will be disappointed with how the reverse game went and will look to put things right.

The Rossoneri struggled to really get a grip on the home leg at times as Roma kept the ball well, so Reijnders and Bennacer will be crucial not only in being a dam in front of the defence but also generating periods of pressure. Tomori’s return will help play a higher defensive line, but he and Gabbia must be sharp to stop Dybala-Lukaku.

Over to Euan: “Bove will present a different challenge for the Milan midfield. He does not have the same metronomic control over a match that Cristante has, but he is an incredibly busy player who can be really hard to track. He may find himself with a lot of space given Milan’s midfield will need to get forward at every opportunity.

“Beyond an individual, Milan need to watch out for Roma becoming very frustrating. There were plenty of signs in the derby win over Lazio that, whilst not as bad-tempered a team as under Jose Mourinho, there is plenty of s**thousing in this team that we may well see on Thursday.”

Prediction

Whenever Milan’s backs have been against a wall and a response has been needed, Pioli has found a way to get one. We expect drama at the Olimpico, because the idea of going out without a wimper just doesn’t sit right.

Roma 1-2 Milan (AET, Milan win on penalties)