UCL preview: Dinamo Zagreb vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan will close out the first phase of their Champions League campaign with a trip to face Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday night, hoping for a top eight finish.

Last week’s victory at San Siro against Girona catapulted Milan from mid-table to sixth, and now the equation is a simple one: win in the Croatian capital to directly qualify for the last 16 of the competition.

However, Dinamo are also playing to win as they sit two points below the last play-off spot, and Sergio Conceicao admitted before the game that he is anticipating a fierce challenge in a hostile environment.

Game date: Wednesday, January 29 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET) Venue: Stadion Maksimir Referee: François Letexier (VAR: Delajod)

Team news

Milan come into the game off the back of two important home wins. Firstly there was the one against Girona, which yielded the first clean sheet of the Conceicao era and, as mentioned, propelled the Rossoneri up the standings.

The one on Sunday in the league was far more chaotic but arguably equally important. Trailing 2-1 to relegation-battling Parma, Tijjani Reijnders and Samuel Chukwueze scored in the 92nd and 95th minutes to engineer a miraculous comeback.

While those two wins were very important for the current Champions League campaign and the hopes of being in it next season, there is still the feeling that Milan are not totally convincing with their performances under the new coach.

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In addition to that, he continues to deploy a ‘bulldozer’ mentality by being so uncompromising in his search of discipline. This has led to incidents such as the spat with Davide Calabria at full-time on Sunday, plus the withdrawal of Rafael Leao and Theo Hernandez at half-time.

There are some selection issues for Conceicao to deal with too, above all in the right-back role. Calabria will serve a one-game suspension, while Emerson Royal is out for at least two months, Kyle Walker hasn’t been registered yet and Alex Jimenez isn’t in the Champions League squad.

Alessandro Florenzi remains out as he continues to record from a long-term injury, with Malick Thiaw not ready to return just yet. Finally, Ruben Loftus-Cheek was not part of Tuesday’s training session and therefore shouldn’t be considered available.

According to the latest from Sky, Conceicao should name a back four which features Fikayo Tomori at right-back and Theo Hernandez on the other flank, with Strahinja Pavlovic and Matteo Gabbia remaining as the centre-back pairing.

Yunus Musah, Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders are expected to make up the three-man midfield, behind an attacking trident of Christian Pulisic, Alvaro Morata and Rafael Leao.

Predicted Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Musah, Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Morata, Leao.

The opponents

Dinamo Zagreb are the biggest club in Croatia and thus it is perhaps no surprise that they won the HNL (first division) last season, finishing eight points above Rijeka in second spot. They also won the Croatian Cup and Super Cup for a domestic treble.

This season, though, things have been far more chaotic. The summer window saw them lose Fran Brodic to Ujpest and Marko Tolic to Milan’s other UCL opponents Slovan Bratislava, for a combined €2.5m.

Several players also left on free transfers, but the additions of Juan Cordoba from Deportivo Cali for €2.1m plus Marko Pjaca (ex-Juventus) from Rijeka had them primed to challenge again.

Sergej Jakirović started the season as head coach but lasted until 19 September before being replaced by Nenad Bjelica, who in turn only made it until 29 December.

Something that is almost unheard of for a club of Dinamo’s dominance in the HNL is that they have already lost five times in the league, including games against Slaven Belupo (4-1), Osijek (2-4) and Lokomotiva (3-1).

In the Champions League they have done a bit better, managing eight points so far, stemming largely from wins away at RB Salzburg and Slovan Bratislava. They also drew with Monaco and Celtic.

With league results a real worry, they changed coaches again the day before Paulo Fonseca was sacked by Milan, opting for Fabio Cannavaro. The Italian was out of work having left Udinese at the end of last season following their survival.

They have added a couple of players in January too to try and salvage things: centre-back Niko Galesic came from Rijeka for €3m, plus forward Wilfried Kanga from Hertha BSC for €1.7m.

In terms of injury news for Cannavaro to deal with, Bruno Petkovic will miss out with an adductor issue while Petar Sucic is out with a foot problem.

In addition to those two absences, Lukas Kacavenda must serve a one-game ban after accumulating too many cards, and the January additions are ineligible due to not being part of the UCL squad.

In their last game against Istra, Dinamo played a 4-1-4-1 system with Misic as the holding midfielder, Hoxha and Pjaca out wide then Stojkovic and Baturina behind Kulenovic (all three of the latter scored).

However, for the game against Arsenal away last week, Cannavaro went with a five-man defence and four across the midfield (Ademi and Rog, with Stojkovic and Baturina wide) plus Kulenovic up front.

Predicted Dinamo Zagreb XI (5-4-1): Nevistic; Ristovski, Torrente, Bernauer, Mmaee, Pierre-Gabriel; Stojkovic, Ademi, Baturina, Pjaca; Kulenovic.

Head to head

AC Milan have played against Dinamo Zagreb eight times during their 125-year history, with six wins, one draw and one defeat in that time producing a win rate of 75%.

The first ever meetings came in the 1967 Mitropacup at the last 16 stage. Dinamo won 1-0 in the first leg, then less than 7,000 people were at San Siro for the return fixture, a 0-0 draw that saw the away side qualify.

Since then, the Rossoneri have won every game including two in the 2022-23 Champions League group stages. A 3-1 win at home (goals from Giroud, Saelemaekers and Pobega) was followed by a 4-0 win away thanks to Gabbia, Leao, Giroud and an own-goal.

Expanding it to all teams from Croatia, Milan have played 12 games (Rijeka and Osijek the other opponents) with eight wins, two draws and two losses.

Key facts and stats

➤ Dinamo Zagreb have lost all six of their previous meetings with Milan in all competitions, most recently suffering a 4-0 home defeat in the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League group stage.

➤ Milan have won each of their six games against Dinamo Zagreb, their longest ever winning run against a team in European competition; they have scored at least three goals in each of their three away trips to face the Croatian side.

➤ Dinamo Zagreb are winless in their last five home matches in the UEFA Champions League (D3 L2), only once suffering a longer run without a home victory in the competition – seven games between October 1999 and December 2012.

➤ Following victories over Real Madrid (3-1) and Slovan Bratislava (3-2), Milan will be aiming to win three consecutive away games in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since September-December 2000 (3), then under Alberto Zaccheroni.

➤ Milan have won their final group/league game in each of their previous two UEFA Champions League campaigns (4-0 vs. RB Salzburg in 2022-23 and 2-1 vs. Newcastle in 2023-24), having failed to do so in each of their six seasons beforehand (D3 L3), dating back to 2009-10.

➤ Dinamo Zagreb have failed to score in each of their last three matches in the UEFA Champions League (D1 L2), last suffering a longer such drought in December 2016 (a run of eight). They’ve also failed to find the net in three of their last four home matches in the competition, including a 0-4 defeat to Milan in October 2022.

➤ No team have conceded more penalties in the UEFA Champions League this season than Dinamo Zagreb (4), with all four of those being converted. The last team to concede more goals from penalties in a single campaign in the competition was Milan in 2011-12 (5).

➤ Christian Pulisic has been directly involved in five goals in his last six starts for Milan in the UEFA Champions League (four goals, one assist). If he scores or assists in this match, he’ll register a new single season-high for goal involvements in a Champions League campaign (currently on four – three goals, one assist).

➤ Sandro Kulenovic has scored three goals for Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Champions League this season, while only one player has ever netted more in a single campaign in the competition for them (4 by Mislav Orsic in 2019-20).

➤ Milan’s Rafael Leão has completed 26 dribbles in the UEFA Champions League this season; the joint-most of any player (level with Morgan Rogers). The Portuguese has netted three times in the competition this term, already equalling his goal tally from 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 combined (3).

Ones to watch

Leao is the man of the moment in the Champions League for Milan given he has scored in three straight games in the competition, and was taken off at half-time on Sunday so should be a bit fresher than normal.

It would be nice for him to get some help from the attack, but aside from that the main focus will be on whether Theo can get anywhere close to a positive performance after such a rough recent period, and how the right side copes without a proper full-back there.

For Dinamo the threats going forward are obvious: Kulenovic up front has 12 goals this season (all comps), while Baturina has nine goal contributions and Pjaca eight, so they will be the ‘creative’ element if Cannavaro does keep the five defenders and four midfielders.

Pierre-Gabriel, Torrente and Ristovski have all started at least 18 games this season and they will be the bedrock of the defence that hopes to keep things tight and spring counter-attacks going the other way.

Prediction

The fact that Dinamo Zagreb must also win this game to have a chance of going through probably helps Milan in truth, as they will be forced to try get forward and not sit in to frustrate.

Nonetheless, they will probably still defend deep and wait for their moments, so the Rossoneri’s quality must shine through plus a bit of composure that has been lacking.

Dinamo Zagreb 1-3 AC Milan