Turkey v Georgia: Debutants to fall short in Dortmund | OneFootball

Turkey v GeorgiaTuesday June 18, 17:00Live on BBC

Montella inspires Turkish turnaround

Turkey were considered as official Dark Horses ahead of Euro 2020 yet the Crescent Stars spectacularly failed to fire, losing all three of their group fixtures and scoring just one measly goal. It took time to recover from that national embarrassment and qualification for this summer's European Championship was in the balance before a key coaching change.

In September 2023 the Turkish FA brought Vincenzo Montella into the hot-seat - the Italian had previously enjoyed success with the Turkish side Adana Demirspor, and he immediately injected a dose of confidence and direction to the group, investing in youth and prioritising a proactive, possession-based style that suited the squad's strengths.

Montella's 4-2-3-1 prioritises attacking width with talented teenagers including Real Madrid attacking midfielder Arda Guler, Juventus forward Kenan Yildiz and Nurnberg's Can Uzun all starting to contribute to the senior set-up. The Crescent Stars are led by Inter Milan's deep-lying playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu with Dortmund's Salih Ozcan operating alongside him.

However, there is a suggestion this Turkish team can lack grit and grunt. In March's friendlies, Montella's men collapsed in a 6-1 shellacking against Austria, a match that exposed the team's defensive frailties. The heavy defeat sparked panic among the country's media with one reporter asking Montella if he would resign.

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Determined debutants no easy meat

"Georgia had never qualified for a competition before, and yet the day after the play-off win over Greece, people were already talking about making the last-16. That's kind of the mindset over here - it's all or nothing." That was Georgia head coach Willy Sagnol describing the mood back home as his team prepare for their major tournament debut.

Jubilant scenes in Tbilisi marked the nation's historic qualification, a culmination of a decade-long investment in the sport from government level. The Crusaders are now a respected emerging nation in the Caucasus region and only last year the U21 side upset the odds to top their European Championship pool ahead of Portugal, Netherlands and Belgium.

Written off and dismissed as no-hopers before a ball has been kicked, Sagnol believes his plucky underdogs can be competitive on the continental stage, and he might well be right. Operating in a defensively-solid 3-5-2 system - more akin to a 5-3-2 with wing-backs - Georgia possess a number of exciting players beginning to blossom.

Napoli's superstar winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will start in a more central role in attack with in-demand Georges Mikautadze a capable forward leading the line. Elsewhere, Giorgi Mamardashvili has been phenomenal between the sticks for Valencia and must be rated as one of the best goalkeepers in the competition. There is plenty of talent in this team.

Crescent Stars can clinch low-scoring success

Turkey 1.774/5 have posted a respectable W9-D3-L2 across their last 14 competitive UEFA encounters, although the Crescent Stars were housed in a generous Nations League pool. Nevertheless, the group have claimed a historic success away at Croatia en-route to Euro 2024, a match that saw Turkey generate five Big Chances and an xG value of 2.65.

Georgia 5.609/2 have delivered an W8-D4-L4 return from 16 competitive UEFA dates over the past two years but the Crusaders have found the going tough when stepping up in class. Willy Sagnol's side failed to win the xG count in any of their seven showdowns against Spain, Scotland, Norway or Greece, although the underdogs were rarely overawed.

With that in-mind, I'm happy to take the [9/10] available on Turkey to win and Under 4.5 Goals. Georgia's 7-1 thrashing against Spain remains a bit outlier in the Sagnol era and I'm expecting the Crusaders to make life tough difficult for a Turkish team that will be roared on by a big Turkish support in Dortmund's famous Westfalenstadion on Tuesday evening.

"Turkish Messi" to make his mark

Elsewhere, the aforementioned Arda Guler should be ready to shine. Having missed most of the season through injury, the 19-year-old still managed to score six goals in 12 outings for Real Madrid following his high-profile move last summer, finishing the season with a flourish. Dubbed the "Turkish Messi" by local press, he's [6/5] to Score or Assist.

Operating on the right or from the centre behind the main striker, the attacking midfielder notched five goals in his last five club appearances for the Champions League winners and scored on his last competitive outing for Turkey against Wales. Backing Arda Guler to Score or Assist alongside a Turkey triumph pays a pretty [17/10] on the Bet Builder.

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