Betting.Betfair.com
·3 September 2024
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·3 September 2024
Maguielson Lima Barbosa: Card machine
Mirassol v America MGTuesday 3 September, 23:00
With the EFL Trophy taking centre stage on Sky Sports on Tuesday, I make no apologies for looking elsewhere.
There's not a great deal to go at but a referee appointment in Brazil has caught my eye.
Maguielson Lima Barbosa takes charge of what is a big battle in Serie B.
Hosts Mirassol sit third, just four points behind the leaders ahead of this game in hand, with visitors America also very much in the promotion picture - they are seventh at time of writing, eight points off the pace. It should be competitive.
Barbosa is a card machine. In his five Serie B matches so far this season he's shown 36 yellows and two reds. Across all competitions in 2024, he's produced 99 yellows and four reds in 14 games - that's an average of 7.36 cards per match!
Admittedly, both teams are low down the table when it comes to cards received but neither has tailed off - the standings are pretty tightly packed.
In any case, I've long been a fan of targeting the referee in card bets.
It was cards that got me into props betting - and landed me the job on this column - so I know that sometimes the market puts too much weight on the teams and not enough on the official.
Basically, due to the ref, I'm keen on a high card count and the prices look fairly decent.
For example, 7 or more cards - something which has occurred in nine of Barbosa's 14 games this season - is at 4/1. The safer options of 6+ (15/8) and 5+ (5/6) also look strong.
However, this is a Bet Builder column so my approach is to back Miarassol for 3+ cards - that's occurred in their last three games.
I'm then also going to put America down for 2+ cards, something that's landed in eight of their last 10.
The double pays north of 2/1. OK, it's not a price to salivate over but given the coupon we've got in front of us, it looks good enough to me.
Staked: 49pts Returned: 71.06pts P/L: +22.06pts
2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts