Title-decider: Long ball City, Holding, bottling it, Aké out? | OneFootball

How often do we get a genuine title decider? Because it feels like Arsenal’s trip to Manchester City this week really is one.

With the biggest game of the season upon us, Arsenal fan and OneFootball editor Lewis Ambrose sat down with Manchester City fan and fellow OneFootball editor Dan Burke to discuss Wednesday’s six-pointer.

Lewis Ambrose: Well Dan, like most of our fellow Arsenal and City fans, we’ve had our eyes on this fixture for a while now. Obviously we didn’t think Arsenal would enter it on the back of three straight draws, which changes things a bit in terms of the title race, but both teams could still say they have it all in their own hands.

Is it all City’s to lose now given the games in hand and the fact this one is at the Etihad?

Dan Burke: I’m not gonna lie, it does feel like the ball is now firmly in City’s court after recent results. For weeks I have just been hoping that we’d still be in touching distance of Arsenal by time Wednesday’s game rolls around, and the fact that a win for City would now put us just two points behind with two games in hand is massive. I’m taking nothing for granted though, and I can still see there being a few more twists and turns in the final weeks of the season.

How has it felt for you to have City creeping up behind Arsenal in recent weeks, and how do you think the pressure might have affected Arsenal’s players?

LA: Ominous! I think City have been brilliant for a couple of months now, going back to their win in north London, and it just feels like one of those runs Pep Guardiola’s teams put together every single season at exactly the right time.

Watching City, I still don’t feel they’ve quite hit top gear, but they look more in control of games than early in the season and when you add that to Erling Haaland up front the writing is on the wall.

Arsenal have had plenty of late winners and comebacks this season. It’s hard now to argue the pressure hasn’t told but I think more than anything it’s just how fine the margins are when you’re in a title race with City. Even after slipping up at Anfield, they had the mettle to get ahead at West Ham and then a penalty to put the game to bed. And then the mettle again to come within inches of beating Southampton on Friday even after the disastrous start led to a disastrous opening 80-odd minutes.

But we all hoped the lead would be bigger going into this one and we could afford a bad result. I don’t think we can now. What have you made of Arsenal’s slips and can you see any way they win on Wednesday?

DB: I was hopeful that Arsenal might drop some points against both Liverpool and West Ham but the draw with Southampton on Friday came as a huge surprise and suggests the lack of experience that a lot of your players have of these tense title races is starting to show.

That said, you still haven’t lost a game since that defeat to City over two months ago, and coming back to draw on Friday looked like a sign that you’re gonna fight for this until the bitter end. You haven’t “bottled it” yet.

I’m confident about City’s chances on Wednesday but extremely nervous at the same time. City may have won the two meetings between the sides this season, but they were both very even games and if Arsenal can soak up the pressure at the Etihad, your attackers can cause us plenty of problems on the break. Stopping City from scoring is a big ask though, so if Arsenal do win it’s likely to be a goal-fest.

City are in battle mode at the moment and Pep Guardiola looks to have got his team nicely balanced after a lot of trial and error this season. I still think we need to win every game between now and the end of the season if we’re to win the title though, and that’s a lot easier said than done.

Which of City’s remaining fixtures could you see them dropping points in and, conversely, which are the Arsenal games that you’re worried about between now and the end of May?

LA: Right now it’s hard to look past Wednesday, but if Arsenal can get some sort of result, I’ll be looking at City’s remaining away games hoping for favours.

I think Everton, Brighton, Brentford are all really tricky trips and who knows, maybe the tantalising prospect of finally being so heavily favoured this late in the Champions League sees Guardiola or some of the players prioritise the matches against Real Madrid.

Likewise, Arsenal still have to play Brighton (at home) and travel to Newcastle. I think you could easily make a case for those two being the third and fourth best sides in the league this season. It’s easy, I’d say easier than recent title races, to see the top two both slipping up once or twice down the home straight.

I’m surprised you think, even with a win on Wednesday, City will need to keep winning. I think they would end up pulling away. Which is why I’m hoping you’re about to tell me Nathan Aké won’t make it and will be a big loss ….

DB: Well it has been radio silence on Aké’s injury for a few days now and I’ll be very surprised if he is fit in time to face Arsenal, which really will be a massive loss.

He has been one of our best and most consistent players this season and has really made the left-back position his own, particularly since João Cancelo left, not to mention that he’s played well against Bukayo Saka a couple of times this season.

If Aké isn’t fit we’ll probably see Aymeric Laporte, Rico Lewis or maybe even Bernardo Silva at left-back. Not the end of the world, but really not ideal either. For all the talk about City’s squad depth, we’re still very shallow in some areas and if anything happens to Rodri between now and the end of the season it would really make things interesting.

And what about Arsenal’s injury situation? Are we going to see Rob Holding marking Haaland and how do you feel about that if so?

LA: Aké has been so impressive this season, so obviously I do like the idea of Saka being able to take somebody else on as the player most likely to deliver the sort of magic moment Arsenal are likely to need.

I think we will almost certainly see Rob Holding, yeah. It would be quite the bold move to suddenly try something else — a five-man backline? Partey at right-back with White in the centre and Jorginho in midfield? — in what is almost certainly the biggest league game Arsenal have played in 20 years.

Holding played against Haaland in the FA Cup back in January … he was booked for fouling him and hooked at half-time. You can be sure the big Norwegian will pin himself to Holding again and there’s only really one way I can see that ending.

Though, even if there’s no Saliba here, when we played the league game back in February Arsenal didn’t play Ben White and were without Thomas Partey and Gabriel Jesus. Does that concern you at all or do you just think home advantage and Haaland up against Arsenal’s weakest link that City really should be fine here?

DB: It was interesting to note how City’s approach to both games against Arsenal this season was quite different to how we normally play. We usually like to calmly pass out from the back and dominate the ball, but Arsenal’s high press meant we were forced to knock a lot more long balls over the top. If Arsenal can neutralise Haaland somehow then it could be a game-changer, but I appreciate that’s a big ask.

Jesus is such a pressing machine that he’ll obviously be really important to Arsenal’s plan, and I’m sure he and Oleks Zinchenko will be trying extra hard to prove a point against their old club too. And with so much midfield quality it will be fascinating to see who emerges victorious from the Rodri vs Partey battle of the sixes and the Stones v Zinchenko battle of the inverted full-backs.

I do feel like City have a slight edge going into this game. The Etihad will be rocking, we’ve got experience of a few of these do-or-die matches in recent years, and Arsenal seem to be a little in their own heads at the moment.

But I’m expecting it to be a close game with a few goals, and it should be brilliant to watch … for the neutral at least!

May the best team win.