Thursday Football Tips: Belgians are choc full of potential at 5/2 | OneFootball

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Nicholas Walsh has a track record for producing cards at this level

Our football props column heads to Belgium on Thursday for a 5/2 Bet Builder in the Europa Legaue.

Union Saint-Gilloise v BragaThursday 23 January, 20:00TNT Sports 8 (via red button)

The reason this match caught the eye on Thursday's Europa League coupon was its potential for cards.

Leg 1: Union most cards

Only one team in the competition has received more cards so far then Union - 22 yellows and one red in their six games. The Belgians are also second in the fouls committed list.

We've also got a strict referee with Scotland's Nicholas Walsh having shown at least four cards in 15 of his 17 UEFA club appointments and 5+ in 12 of those matches.

The concern here is that Union have three players suspended, so we're missing some of their main 'offenders'. That said, the team ethos remains and it's not enough to put me off getting involved in a game which should be competitive given the positions of the two teams in the standings.

With the top 24 progressing to the knockout stage, Union currently sit 20th, one point inside the cut, with Braga in 25th, outside only on goals scored. Defeat for either would be a huge blow with just one game to go.

I am, however, going to change tack in terms of betting approach.

Whereas I was looking at specific players and/or card totals, I'm instead going to back the hosts to have the most cards, a market in which they are slight outsiders despite their track record.

They've had the most cards in four of their six Europa League games so far (there has been one tie), while Braga have manged it in just two of eight, again with one tie.

With a high-carding referee, I always feel the long-term trends are more likely to be born out, so I'm happy to play this.

Leg 2: Union most corners

I'll double it up by also backing the hosts for most corners.

They've managed this in all three home EL games, while Braga have been beaten in this market in two of three away in this league phase.

Braga 'lost' 14-5 away to Roma last time out, that coming off the back of a 9-1 home corners defeat against Hoffenheim.

They've also recently changed formation, moving away from a front three in the past couple of games. In one of those, they only managed three corners in a Portuguese Cup tie against lower-league opposition.

If such tactics are maintained, it will surely add to the bet's chances of winning.

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Back Union most cards and most corners @ 5/2

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 190pts Returned: 207.19pts 2024/25 P/L: +17.19pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts