Thursday Football Tips: Back Fla-Flu derby card chaos at 11/2 | OneFootball

Flamengo v FluminenseThursday 17 October, 23:59

Cards punters love a good derby and they don't come much better than Fla-Flu in Rio de Janeiro.

These are the last two winners of the Copa Libertadores - South America's Champions League - and in one of the world's largest cities, this is the biggest game.

It regularly produces a high card count with passions to the fore on and off the pitch.

To give you some background, since the return of fans post-COVID, the booking points totals for this fixture (that's 10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) have been: 85, 90, 65, 50, 100, 135, 50, 35, 70, 85, 95, 150, 105, 130, 100, 150, 90.

High-flying Flamengo are actually the best-behaved team in Serie A on the card front but I don't see that being reflected once this game gets under way. Only two sides have picked up more bookings than Fluminense, who are struggling at the wrong end of the table, in stark contrast to their continental success last season.

Both sides sit in the tip five for fouls drawn, while this derby has averaged 30.22 fouls per game across the last nine games we have data for. In short, there should be ample opportunity for the referee, Raphael Claus, to go to his pocket.

Claus has likely been chosen for his below average card count in Serie A this season.

That said, he has still produced seven reds in his 12 games, while a look into his previous derby fixtures shows card counts of 5-11-10-2, although I'm prepared to discount the latter as it was during COVID with the match played behind closed doors.

Bet 1, Leg 1: Red card in the match

There have been seven reds in those four Claus-led games and I'll happily kick things off by backing a red card at 11/5.

This has now occurred in 11 of the last 16 editions of Fla-Flu and clearly we have a referee who isn't afraid to dismiss players.

Bet 1, Leg 2: Both teams over 2.5 cards

Well worth consideration as a single, I'm going to double that up with both teams to receive over 2.5 cards.

That's landed in 11 of those 17 post-lockdown derbies and, with the red card, produces a Bet Builder which pays just under 11/2.

The player-card market is also ripe for the picking in a match such as this.

The obvious candidates on the respective sides are Gabriel Barbosa - carded in 11 of 21 derby starts, including two reds - and Felipe Melo, a former Flamengo player who has been carded in five of his six stars for Fluminense in this fixture.

That double here pays less than 4/1 though.

Bet 2, Leg 1: Allan to be shown a card

Given the clear potential for a double-figure card count, as has happened in two of the last three Fla-Flu games refereed by Mr Claus, I'm keen on some of the bigger-priced players.

Flamengo's Gerson immediately caught the eye given his price of 8/1. He's been carded in five of 15 appearances in this fixture but, sadly, seems unlikely to play given he started Brazil's 4-0 victory over Peru on Tuesday.

Instead, let's back Allan, who looks set to line up in the hosts' midfield for what would be his first Fla-Flu start.

He's been carded In six of 21 starts this season (nine cards in total) but he's got a great track record against Fluminense, being booked in seven of eight games against them while he was at former club Atletico Mineiro.

That's probably no co-incidence either - Allan spent a season on loan at Fluminense but they didn't sign him permanently before that move to Atletico.

Bet 2, Leg 2: Lima to be shown a card

Let's also go with Fluminense's attacking midfielder Lima, who is being tipped to return to the starting XI.

He's been carded in four of his five starts in this derby and six of 11 appearances in total - the latter stat showing all is not lost if the worst happens and he's only on the bench.

The card double pays around 17/2 so let's put half our stake on that and the other half on the 11/2 shot.