This has been an excellent Newcastle United season in so many ways – Don’t let anyone tell you… | OneFootball

By 6pm today, we will know whether Newcastle United have finished sixth, seventh, or eighth in the Premier League.

All ten matches in this final Premier League round of games, kicking off at the same time of 4pm.

If Newcastle United get the same or better result against Brentford, as Man U get at Brighton, then Eddie Howe’s team will finish seventh at worst.

If Newcastle win at Brentford and Chelsea lose at home to Bournemouth, then NUFC end up sixth.

So basically, the 2024/25 Premier League season will end up with Newcastle United somewhere between sixth and eighth.

If you had told Newcastle United fans back at the start of October 2021 that this would be where NUFC are as a club, they would have laughed (or cried?) in your face.

If you had told Newcastle United fans last summer before this current season kicked off, that this would be where NUFC are as a club… well what were they saying???

Well put it this way, I distinctly remember that pretty much all outsiders were saying that it was impossible for Eddie Howe to repeat the fourth place finish of 2022/23, due to the perceived limitations of the squad he had at his disposal and the extra demands of the Champions League.

My memory tells me for sure that this was pretty much replicated with the vast majority of Newcastle United fans.

Or at least that finishing four would be very very difficult and as I distinctly remember it, I reckon finishing somewhere between sixth and eighth was invariably mentioned, along with hopes of giving the Champions League our best go AND expectations of having a good go in the domestic cup competitions.

Well, United were handed the toughest imaginable Champions League group and yet came within minutes in their final group game of reaching the last 16 AND were indeed cheated of a place in the last 16 when that shocking penalty decision was made in Paris at the end of the second last group game.

In the two domestic cup competitions, only once in seven draws were United drawn at home and that was against Man City! Despite this, Eddie Howe’s side beat Man City despite Howe changing all 10 outfield players, won four of their six away cup matches (including smashing Sunderland who hardly got out of their own half in front of their own fans) and lost at Man City, plus eventually at Chelsea on penalties having led right into added time and seemingly heading into a semi-final which would have been against second tier Middlesbrough.

Anyway, back to what Newcastle United fans were realistically expecting this season, back before a ball was kicked.

If you had then been able to tell them that Eddie Howe’s big summer signing would be banned almost the entire season and then list all the players who would end up injured and how many games they’d miss, the worst ever season for injuries any of us have ever seen…

What would Newcastle United fans have then said would be a relatively successful season?

Well, I honestly think you’d have struggled to find any NUFC fans who wouldn’t then have seen how we’ve ended up as a relative success. Competitive in the Champions League group and in the domestic cups and now set to finish between 6th and 8th in the league and yet…

And yet… some Newcastle United fans are now far from happy with how things are ending up and a sizeable minority are at the very least wondering if NUFC should still have done better, even in the circumstances.

My theory is that Eddie Howe is a bit of a victim of his own success and I don’t mean the fourth place last season and NUFC getting to a cup final for the first time in 24 years.

Instead, I mean those performances and results this season. Results that I think have given some fans distorted expectations.

Just because Eddie Howe, even in these circumstances, could pull off wins against the likes of Man City, Arsenal, PSG, Tottenham, Villa (twice), Man U (Twice), Chelsea and so on, it doesn’t then follow that it was realistic to think this could have continued in more of these matches against the better teams.

I think maybe the very final week of progressive results in 2023 sums things up.

Eddie Howe absolutely down to the bare bones, having to start Saturday – Tuesday – Saturday with the exact same eleven, an eleven that included a 17 year old in midfield who had to be asked to start almost every match for months on end due to injuries. Anyway, in that week, with pretty much no options on the bench as well during games, Newcastle hammered Chelsea 4-1, drew 1-1 at PSG when cheated out of the win, then won 1-0 against Man U but in reality a hammering as their luck was unbelievable that day as NUFC battered them.

Unfortunately, Nick Pope was injured in the final minutes of that Man U match and it was the injury that broke the camel’s back, as for a period results really went against us, as fine margins and bad luck added to the woes.

However, I think quite clearly a fair few Newcastle United fans look at a week like that, where we got those results and performed as they did against Chelsea, PSG and Man U in swift succession, then think this is ‘proof’ that Eddie Howe has been failing because at times he hasn’t been able to replicate those results in similarly challenging circumstances.

I think actually in some ways, it would have been easier for Eddie Howe if he’d had the team struggling in lower mid-table for most of the season, then I think more NUFC fans would have pointed to the ridiculous injury list as the overwhelming reason making better results impossible. Whereas, Eddie Howe working his magic on so many occasions against the odds, then made a rod for his own back.

Anyway, these are the league positions the past 20+ years in the top tier for Newcastle United:

3rd – 2002/03

5th – 2003/04

14th – 2004/05

7th – 2005/06

13th – 2006/07

12th – 2007/08

18th – 2008/09

Championship – 2009/10

12th – 2010/11

5th – 2011/12

16th – 2012/13

10th – 2013/14

15th – 2014/15

18th – 2015/16

Championship – 2016/17

10th – 2017/18

13th – 2018/19

13th – 2019/20

12th – 2020/21

11th – 2021/22

4th – 2022/23

Between 6th and 8th – 2023/24

I’m not saying that Newcastle United fans should now be seeing top eight as success BUT I am saying you have to have perspective.

Both when it comes to all the players Eddie Howe has had missing and what history tells us AND of course the fact is that Newcastle United are NOT in the top six as yet, when it comes to current wage bills and the same when it comes to how much the current squads cost of each Premier League club.

IMAGO/Sports Press Photo

Yes we have been left disappointed and frustrated at time BUT we have also seen some exhilarating performances and/or results on many occasions this season.

Apart from the fluke fifth place of 2011/12 (which Mike Ashley then predictably wasted by refusing to allow a penny of net spend in summer 2012 AND Newcastle ending up fighting relegation that following 202/13 season!), before Eddie Howe you have to go back to 2005/06 for the last top seven placing in the top tier, whilst 2002/03 was the last top four one.

As for goals, if Newcastle score 2+ today at Brentford, it will be the first time in a top flight season since 1960/61 that NUFC have managed a century of goals.

Even if not scoring at all today, Newcastle United would end up with 81 goals from 38 Premier League matches at an average of over 2.13 goals per game.

The last time that number of top tier goals was bettered was 1993/94 when 82 were scored BUT at a lower average per game, as it was a 42 game league season.

Indeed, you have to go back to the 1951/52 season when Newcastle United averaged more goals per game in the top tier, 98 scored that season in 42 league games, at an average of 2.33 goals per game, just the 72 years ago…

Not trying to claim that this season is proof of we’ve never had it so good as Newcastle United fans.

However, we have rarely had it so good over the course of recent decades AND most importantly, the underlying factors point to the team / squad and club are continuing to move forward AND that next season we can expect major improvement, unless this kind of nightmare injury situation repeats itself.