The Premier League's biggest xG under-performers | OneFootball

Although it may still have its doubters, the expected goals metric has become the pin up for football analytics over recent years given its ability to grade the quality of chances and players' finishing skills.

The metric seeks to measure the quality of any given shot and assign a probability that it will end up in the back of the net. The higher the xG of a shot, basically the better odds it has of being a goal.

Currently, Wolves forward Matheus Cunha (+6.87), Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo (+6.45) and Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood (+6.09) are the three players out-performing their expected goals by the biggest margins in the Premier League this term.

In Cunha's case, the Wolves striker has generated just 7.13 xG this season in the top flight - yet the Brazilian has scored 14 goals, meaning he has been successfully converting low quality chances which would 'normally' not be scored.

But what about the players at the opposite end of the spectrum?

Just as players with low xG can have a fantastic season where they out-perform their data, there will be other footballers who fail to convert high xG chances due to a variety of factors including luck, good goalkeeping and poor finishing - and, in this regard, Crystal Palace's Eberechi Eze has not had the best of campaigns.

The England midfielder has scored three goals from his 91 shots in 2024/25 when, according to expected goals, he should have hit the net on 8.21 occasions. This represents an under-performance against his xG of -5.21, the biggest negative disparity in the division.

Just behind Eze are West Ham's Mohammed Kudus (three goals from 7.53 xG) and Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin (three goals from 7.51 xG). In the latter's case, these numbers are even more disappointing given that 'DCL' was the second-biggest under-performer in the Premier League last season as well (seven goals from 13.73 xG).

Winning Premier League games often boils down to small margins - and Eze, for one, will hope he can bag a few goals between now and the end of the season to make up his current xG shortfall.