The points total Newcastle United need to ensure Champions League football – Achievable? | OneFootball

Can Newcastle United get Champions League football?

What do Newcastle United need to get Champions League football?

With a trophy already banked, qualifying for the premier European competition would be the massive cherry on top of the Carabao Cup icing on the black and white cake.

I would hope nobody would then equate it to a season of failure if Newcastle don’t manage this.

However, finishing top five would be…huge.

It ticks all the boxes, on and off the pitch.

For Newcastle United to continue to progress in every way, financially and footballing-wise, Champions League is the place to be.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Friday (4 April 2025) morning, after Chelsea scraped a 1-0 win against a woeful Spurs:

As you can see, Chelsea’s win has edged Newcastle United out of the top five Champions League places. However, with a game in hand (home to Palace), three points from that would mean Newcastle effectively in fourth, ahead of both Chelsea and Man City.

Looking at the bigger picture though, how many points do you think it will take, for Newcastle United to finish in a Champions League (top five) place?

History is usually the best guide on these things, rather than trying to work out each individual match and result.

These are the last five Premier League seasons and the number of points the teams in fourth and fifth ended up with:

2019/20 Chelsea 66, Leicester 62

2020/21 Chelsea 67, Leicester 66

2021/22 Spurs 71, Arsenal 69

2022/23 Newcastle 71 Liverpool 67

2023/24 Villa 68, Spurs 66

If you average these out, it has taken (on average) 68 or 69 points to finish top four.

However, with now fifth place giving Champions League football, we can see the past five seasons average out at exactly 66 points for fifth.

With plenty of matches remaining where those competing for the Champions League places face each, such as Forest v Villa this weekend, I think in reality 66 points could well prove more than enough to get top five.

To reach a minimum of 66 points, Newcastle United need five wins and a draw (four wins and four draws would also do it) from their nine remaining games. I can’t help but think that if Eddie Howe’s team can win at Leicester and beat Man U at home in the next two matches, they would go into that game in hand at home to Palace, only needing 10 more points to reach 66 points.  So basically, if winning the next three, including against Palace, United needed then seven points from their last six Premier League games to get to that magical 66 points. Those final six games include tough away matches at Brighton, Villa and Arsenal, but also home games against Ipswich, Chelsea and Everton.

For me, winning these Leicester, Man U and Palace matches would leave United in such a dominant position.

For our rivals to reach 66 points they would need at least:

Brighton – six wins and a draw from their least eight matches.

Villa – six wins from their least eight matches.

Man City – five wins from their least eight matches.

Chelsea – five wins (or four wins and two draws) from their least eight matches.

Forest – three wins from their least eight matches.

If we are seeing 66 points as the target to aim for, then looking at the weekend matches, if Brighton fail to win their ‘derby’ at Palace, then I think any chance has gone for them to get up to 66 points.

Whilst I think Villa need to win at Forest, or else that is their hope of 66 points gone.

Of course, if Villa get even a draw at the City Ground, that pulls Forest back down into the fight for the final three Champions League places. If Newcastle win at Leicester and there is a draw at the City Ground, United would then be six points behind Forest and with a game in hand.

All to play for and I think Newcastle United now in a great position, especially when Forest, Man City, Chelsea and Villa all have FA Cup or European distractions.