The peculiar Premier League trend that hints at drastic change | OneFootball

As Ange Postecoglou came in after another deflating Tottenham Hotspur defeat, both he and fans were evidently furious, but there were some calming voices. It’s just “that kind of season”, as some around the club maintained. This isn’t a figure of speech. It’s a fact. Spurs’s inconsistency has spread to the majority of the Premier League, in a way that has never been seen before.

The gap between third and 13th is only four points. Between third and 11th, it’s a mere three. The table has never been so congested at this stage, across more than half the table and almost a third of the way through the season.

Historically, the closest we’ve seen to this kind of table at this stage are the four points that separated third-placed Chelsea and 11th-placed Fulham in 2002-03, and the five between Spurs and Middlesbrough in 2005-06. From third to 13th, the closest has been the six between Arsenal and Newcastle United in 1998-99.

Generally, these gaps have been far bigger, with an average of 10 and 11 points over the last decade. Even “the Leicester City season” of 2015-16 only had gaps between these positions of six and nine points, respectively. This is the Premier League’s big crunch. It’s why Manchester United, sitting in 13th place, can be optimistic about the appointment of Ruben Amorim. If he does get an immediate response from the team, two wins can suddenly have them right in contention for the Champions League places and maybe even more.

Many clubs can feel similarly, if also a little confused about how things are going. Spurs themselves have won two of their last four games with thoroughly convincing 4-1 routs and yet there they are in 11th amid huge debate over the manager. Brentford have seemed simultaneously resurgent and as if the Thomas Frank era is going stale. Aston Villa are ninth and looking like the extra rigours of their Champions League campaign might be getting to them… and yet still just a point off the positions to return to the competition next season.

It’s like little we’ve seen before, at least for some time. Having to go back to the early 2000s or even 1990s for similar examples is instructive. That was an era where financial gaps weren’t as great and there was more competitive balance, as illustrated by how 79 points was enough to win the title in 1999. The arrival of Roman Abramovich, capitalist money, states and all manner of other interests transformed all of that, instigating this financial stretch in the league. The table’s 90 per cent correlation to wage bills, as revealed in many academic studies, becomes even more meaningful when the differences in those wage bills are greater.

That’s why this crunch right now is so remarkable. It shouldn’t really be possible at this stage of the Premier League’s history, and may well be unsustainable.

Even if it is, it could still have huge effect. Blips in form may not be as damaging and could be quickly recoverable. There’s still a sense of many teams finding out where and what they are, as if we are still in the first weeks of the campaign.

There are two direct and related reasons for this. One is the effect of Profit and Sustainability Rules, which have forced clubs to make more compromises. Wage bills have been so high for so long that there hasn’t been the same headroom. Clubs haven’t been able to go out and buy in the same way.

While this has naturally brought a lot of complaints in the market, it is probably a self-correction that the Premier League has long needed.

More concerning is something bigger, that very much does need fixing, and has exacerbated other issues. That is the effect of the schedule, and what is essentially becoming “Forever Football”. Players are exhausted. It is not just the resultant injuries that Mikel Arteta has complained about and have also affected Manchester City, who have a Club World Cup at the end of the season.

open image in gallery

Bukayo Saka was forced off with an injury against Chelsea (John Walton/PA) (PA Wire)

It is also the way coaching staff find they can’t train properly, often because squad members aren’t available. Players might not be injured for games but they do have to miss a lot of sessions due to physical issues. That has a much more profound effect in a modern game of highly systemised teams. It also has a knock-on effect since the workload on the fit players goes up, they can’t be rested, and they are then more likely to get injured themselves.

“It’s been a nightmare for eight weeks,” Arteta said. “Doubt after doubt, issue after issue, not only with the ones that are not able to play, but with the ones who are able to play only for certain moments and not able to play.”

The Professional Footballers’ Association and other player representative bodies have already had a lot of meetings over the last week about injury impact, that has concluded with discussions over whether it is becoming “a literal survival of the fittest”. The factor impacting results that is seen as the most meaningful right now is who can get something close to a full team out.

That’s where Arne Slot’s Liverpool have been excellent, but also where there are two sides to this discussion. There might also be two sides to the season, with another that isn't so crunched.

A table this congested naturally looks more competitive, in a way the Premier League has badly needed. It's like the schedule almost serves as a levelling factor amid so much financial inequality in the game. That isn't wholly positive, though. For one, something has gone wrong in the sport if it needs exhaustion as an equalising factor. That isn’t proper regulation, and there are far more productive remedies.

A second problem is that bigger schedules end up tending to serve clubs with the biggest squads over the longer term. That is how football started to see an unprecedented proliferation of trebles from 2008, because the “super clubs” grew to a financial size where they could accumulate talent.

open image in gallery

Arne Slot is enjoying an impressive start to life in the Premier League (EPA)

You couldn’t totally say that of Liverpool, since they have been extremely clever in so much work under City’s greater wealth. That’s especially so this season in Slot’s more controlled approach. It might be crucial by the end of the season. Liverpool have also had to endure their own injuries, not least to Alisson.

And it is still the fact sitting on top of all this, even if there is a surprise element to it. One of the “Super Clubs” are in first place by five points.

For the moment, everyone underneath is trying to find similar breathing space. It’s probably why this international break is likely to see a lot of drop-outs through injury, as clubs protect what they have.

The consequence for now is that it’s been impossible for anyone to drop too far away in terms of points. It’s not just that kind of season. It’s one we haven’t really seen before.