The OPTA Premier League Preview: Supercomputer predictions for the 2025-26 season | OneFootball

Opta

Have OPTA called the 2025-26 Premier League season?

OPTA have run 10,000 Supercomputer simulations of the 2025-26 Premier League season to come up with the following predictions and tips from Betfair markets including title winner, top six, relegation and more

Strap yourselves in, Premier League football is back for another season.

Having captured their 20th top-flight crown in serene fashion last term, Liverpool get the 2025/26 Premier League campaign under way against Bournemouth on Friday.

Arne Slot's side - who went down to Crystal Palace on penalties in the Community Shield on Sunday - have looked to improve from a position of strength ahead of the new season, adding Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez to a squad that finished 10 points clear of the competition in 2024/25.

But with Arsenal finally finding their striker and Pep Guardiola overseeing an overhaul of Manchester City's squad, the Reds can expect to face a renewed challenge for their crown.

Liverpool title favourites, neither United or Spurs in top 10

As always, expect the unexpected. Ahead of the new season, the Opta supercomputer has assigned eight different clubs at least a 2% chance of the title - though neither Manchester United nor Tottenham are among them!

The supercomputer has simulated the season 10,000 times, and by delving into the data behind some of the league's standout teams and players, we have found some potential value for ante-post selections.

OPTA on the Title Race: City to regain the crown?

Liverpool are rightful favourites for the title both with Betfair's sportsbook, priced at 13/8, and with the Opta supercomputer, retaining their crown in 29.3% of simulations.

However, with that sportsbook price giving the Reds an implied probability of 38.1%, there is little value to be gained from backing them at this stage before a ball has been kicked.

No team other than Manchester City has retained the title since Manchester United won three in a row from 2006-07 to 2008-09, and Liverpool's lack of defensive depth is still a concern, even if they look sharp at the other end (and they could yet shatter the Premier League's transfer record to sign Alexander Isak from Newcastle United).

Arsenal chance creation not good enough

Arsenal have finished as runners-up in each of the last three seasons, with only the Gunners themselves (between 1998-99 and 2000-01) previously achieving that unwanted feat in the Premier League era.

Hopes are high that Mikel Arteta's team could shake off their 'nearly men' tag after signing Viktor Gyökeres from Sporting CP, with the Swede having plundered more league goals in the last two seasons - 68, from an expected goals (xG) total of 53.6 - than any other player in Europe's top 10 divisions.

But Gyökeres may not be a miracle cure for Arsenal, whose chance creation leaves a lot to be desired. Last season, their total of 61.6 xG was only the sixth highest in the Premier League, behind the likes of Newcastle (65.4) and Bournemouth (65). Liverpool were in the clear with 83.5, with no other team creating over 70 xG.

The supercomputer makes Arsenal second favourites with a 24.4% chance of capturing the title, but their price of 9/4 - with an implied probability of 30.8% - may be a touch too short.

Rodri return so important for City

That leaves City, who are 10/3 to win the title - the longest price they have been ahead of any campaign under Guardiola. They were 13/5 ahead of his first season in charge in 2016/17, with a squad that was still some way off his specifications.

In September 2024, City were top of the table when Rodri suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury in a 2-2 draw with Arsenal, having held a perfect record ahead of that match.

Across the last two seasons, City have not lost any of the 37 Premier League games in which Rodri has appeared, winning 29 and drawing eight while averaging 2.6 points per game. Without him, they have suffered 12 defeats in 39 matches (20 wins, seven draws), collecting 1.7 points per game.

Rodri appeared in all four of City's games at the Club World Cup, getting valuable minutes in the tank, and with Guardiola's men going out in the last 16, their pre-season was not delayed to the same extent as that of Chelsea.

Rodri is unlikely to feature until after the September international break after sustaining a minor groin issue, but City will back themselves in their opening fixtures against Wolves, Tottenham and Brighton. When he's back, the Spaniard will be like a new signing.

Guardiola can also call upon several exciting recruits. Former Wolves left-back Rayan Aït-Nouri had the most goal involvements of any Premier League defender last season (four goals, seven assists), while Rayan Cherki led Ligue 1 for assists (11, with Gaëtan Perrin) and was second for chances created (75).

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He will be expected to create for the league's most lethal goalscorer, Erling Haaland. While Haaland's 22 goals in 2024/25 were his fewest in a Premier League season to date, his underlying figures suggest his finishing was better than in his second Golden Boot-winning campaign in 2023/24, and he did lose seven games to injury, too.

Haaland matched his xG figures in 2024/25, compared to an underperformance of 2.3 the previous season (27 goals, 29.3 xG). He also converted a significantly higher proportion of big chances last campaign, scoring 47.5% versus 38.2% the previous year.

Tijjani Reijnders could be the dynamic, ball-carrying midfielder Guardiola has wanted since missing out on Declan Rice, while Omar Marmoush has had further time to settle after a strong initial impact. He registered 42 goal involvements in all competitions last season for Eintracht Frankfurt and City - the seventh-most in Europe's top five leagues.

Liverpool may be favourites, but City offer the best value in the outright betting.

Opta on the European Hopefuls: Villa to gatecrash top four?

Last season, the title race and the relegation battle were settled early, leaving the fight for European football to provide the drama in the season's closing weeks.

And with the Premier League hoping to again claim a fifth Champions League qualification spot in 2025/26, it will be all to play for in that section of the table once again.

In the betting for a top-four finish, Liverpool 1/16, Arsenal 1/8, Man City 1/5 and Chelsea 8/15 are all heavily odds-on.

Those odds do not quite match up with the supercomputer's predictions, suggesting there is value to be found in backing an outsider. While Liverpool (73.3%), Arsenal (69.2%) and City (62.8%) are backed for a top-four finish, Chelsea only made the cut in 38.8% of scenarios.

The Club World Cup champions only returned to pre-season training on August 6, following their successful trip to the United States. If the quick turnaround results in a slow start for Enzo Maresca's men, perhaps one of the outsiders could provide value.

Many reasons not to back Newcastle or Man Utd

Next in the betting are two sides that have faced interesting summers, in Newcastle 11/4 and Manchester United 3/1, but can either really be backed with confidence?

The Magpies have been rejected by multiple transfer targets after being informed of Isak's desire to leave, and they surely need to increase their squad depth after sealing a return to the Champions League, which features more games following last season's format changes.

When they last appeared in the competition in 2023/24, Newcastle finished 11 points worse off in the Premier League than they did in 2022/23, dropping from fourth to seventh. They are given a 29.9% chance of making the top four by the supercomputer, though those predictions do not take their transfer troubles into account.

It should also be said that the dismal performances of Man United and Tottenham in 2024/25 colour the supercomputer's outlook for those sides, who only make the top four in 6.6% and 5.6% of season simulations respectively.

The Red Devils will, of course, be absent from European football entirely for the first time since 2014/15. They finished fourth on that occasion, and with nine of their Premier League rivals involved in UEFA competitions, that could work to their advantage. They are 8/5 to make the top five, which could be a more realistic aim after a positive pre-season.

Only seven players managed 15 or more non-penalty goals in the Premier League last season, and in Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, United have signed two of them. Last week, they beat Newcastle to the signing of Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig. That was an area the Red Devils desperately needed to address after scoring the fifth-fewest goals in the division last season (44).

But might those flashy additions simply be papering over the cracks? United's opponents reached the final third via transitions on 541 occasions last term, the sixth most in the Premier League. Despite being overrun by opposition attacks for several years, United are yet to buy a holding midfielder this summer.

And the man in the dugout still has it all to prove, too. Had the 2024/25 season started when Ruben Amorim took charge in November, United would have finished 21 points off the top six, let alone the top four. They finish in the bottom half in a whopping 60.5% of the supercomputer's projections.

Villa stability makes them top four value

With all their competitors experiencing some form of upheaval, perhaps Aston Villa provide the best value in the top-four betting at 4/1. That price implies a probability of 20%, yet the supercomputer rates their chances at 31.3%.

A five-match winless run in January and February - and a controversial disallowed goal at Old Trafford on the final day - cost Villa last season, as they finished outside the Champions League places on goal difference.

Villa have had a stable summer. Loanees Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio may have departed, but the former played just 443 Premier League minutes for the club - the 17th-most in Villa's squad after his February arrival. Asensio's 745 minutes ranked him eighth in that same span.

Emiliano Martínez and Ollie Watkins were both tentatively linked with Man United, but Villa have so far kept two of their most consistent performers. According to Opta's expected goals on target model (xGoT), Martínez has conceded 8.3 goals fewer than expected over the past two seasons, based on the quality of shots he has faced.

Watkins, meanwhile, is one of only three players to score at least 15 goals in the last three Premier League campaigns, alongside Haaland and Mohamed Salah.

Meanwhile, only Salah (18), Jacob Murphy (12) and Anthony Elanga (11) bettered Morgan Rogers' 10 Premier League assists last term, and the arrival of Evann Guessand - who scored 12 Ligue 1 goals for Nice last season - has further boosted Emery's attacking options.

With so much uncertainty surrounding their rivals, Villa's stability could be attractive to punters. The supercomputer assigns them a 40.6% chance of a top-five finish, which is available at 11/5 and could be enough for Champions League football.

Even a price of 11/8 for Villa to make the top six could be tempting, with the supercomputer assigning them a 49.7% chance of doing so.

OPTA on the relegation battle

The scrap for survival has been something of a non-event in the last two seasons, with Sheffield United, Burnley, Luton Town, Southampton, Ipswich Town and Leicester City all going straight back down following promotion.

Might this year be different? Well, the supercomputer is ruling nothing out. Sunderland are its favourites to drop with a 66.5% chance, but they have been ambitious in the transfer market and some fancy them to defy the 1/3 price for them to return to the Championship.

Burnley are assigned a 46.5% probability of relegation, though they are the sportsbook's favourites for the drop at 1/4.

The Clarets kept 30 clean sheets in the Championship last season, matching the record for an English league campaign, but the exits of goalkeeper James Trafford, centre-back CJ Egan-Riley and captain Josh Brownhill - who top-scored for Scott Parker's team with 18 goals last term - could be costly.

Leeds United are the only newly promoted side with an odds-against price when it comes to the relegation market, at 11/10. With the supercomputer assigning them a 47.2% chance of dropping back to the second tier, that is largely in line with the price.

None of the last six promoted teams have amassed more than 26 points - a tally reached by Luton in 2023/24 - and in Daniel Farke's previous two top-flight seasons, he got Norwich City relegated with 21 (2019/20) and 22 points (2021/22).

Farke has received far more backing in the transfer market this time around, and Leeds have clearly prioritised physicality with Jaka Bijol, Anton Stach, Sebastian Bornauw and Lukas Nmecha all being over six foot tall.

But more is required, particularly in attack. Dan James, Wilfried Gnonto and Brenden Aaronson have just 15 goals in 166 Premier League games between them, and while Joël Piroe was the Championship's Golden Boot winner with 19 goals last season, he has no top-flight experience.

Nmecha failed to score more than four Bundesliga goals (or make more than 10 starts) in any of his last three seasons with Wolfsburg, so he may not be the answer, either.

Leeds were in the market for exciting Brazilian Igor Paixão before he joined Marseille and will hope to sign a winger and a striker before the transfer window is through. But the clock is ticking and at present, an odds-against price for them to drop looks enticing, particularly given the lack of value available with the other promoted teams.

If one or more of the promoted teams do buck the recent trend, which established Premier League clubs are ripe for relegation?

Wolves are the supercomputer's fourth favourites for the drop, going down in 26.3% of scenarios. They were in danger of being cut adrift when Gary O'Neil was sacked last December, but after Vitor Pereira took the reins, they took five more points than the bottom three combined, 13 more than Man United and 18 more than Tottenham.

Despite Pereira's nous, the exits of Cunha, Aït-Nouri and Nelson Semedo could cause some punters to take a glance at Wolves at 3/1 for relegation, with Brentford also 3/1.

The supercomputer only assigns the Bees a 9.5% chance of relegation, but the effects of a tumultuous summer in which they have lost boss Thomas Frank, captain Christian Nørgaard, goalkeeper Mark Flekken and leading goalscorer Mbeumo have not been factored in. Yoane Wissa is also expected to depart, with Keith Andrews thrown in at the deep end in his first senior managerial role. It is clear to see why many fear for them.

But at a mouthwatering price of 11/2, West Ham may offer the most value in the relegation market.

Graham Potter's January arrival was supposed to mark a new dawn after an uninspiring half-season under Julen Lopetegui, but he has so far failed to transform their style of play.

West Ham won 30% of their Premier League games under Lopetegui (six of 20), but their win rate stands at just 27.8% under Potter (five of 18). Potter has shored up their defence, with the Hammers conceding 1.28 goals per game compared to 1.95 under Lopetegui, but that has come at the expense of their attacking output.

Under Lopetegui, West Ham averaged 1.45 xG per Premier League match. Under Potter, those figures are down to just 1.05, with only the three relegated sides registering worse xG figures than West Ham after his appointment.

For a coach brought in with the objective of playing a progressive brand of football, that statistic is damning.

Mohammed Kudus forcing a move to rivals Tottenham stung the Hammers' already disgruntled fanbase, and their only attacking reinforcement thus far is 33-year-old Callum Wilson, who did not score a Premier League goal last term and last managed 2,000 minutes in a season in 2020-21.

New goalkeeper Mads Hermansen, meanwhile, recorded a save percentage of 63.3% for Leicester last season, the fourth-worst of all goalkeepers to play 10 Premier League games.

The promoted clubs have it all to do to survive, but West Ham are a team they could target and are simply too big a price to ignore. Maybe stability under David Moyes wasn't too bad after all?