The hard decisions Aston Villa now face after transfer gamble backfires | OneFootball

Sixty-seven points, Unai Emery said, was “very fantastic”. He soon corrected himself. Aston Villa only had 66. He downgraded the description to “fantastic”. One extra word, one extra point, but one very different scenario.

A 67th would have secured them Champions League football. A year made a difference: 68 points brought fourth in 2024, 66 sixth 12 months on.

The simplistic explanation was that referee Thomas Bramall proved “a significant contributing factor to the club not qualifying for the Champions League”, as Villa claimed in their complaint to PGMOL, by wrongly disallowing a Morgan Rogers goal in the 2-0 defeat to Manchester United.

Although, somehow, they neglected to mention the significant contributing factor of Emi Martinez getting himself sent off just before the interval for flooring Rasmus Hojlund. It is easier to blame officials. Some of Villa’s powerbrokers took the populist approach of scapegoating the man in black.

And in his defence, a more dignified Emery argued that everyone makes mistakes and that Villa deserved to lose at Old Trafford. He was doubly correct. Reducing 38 games to one piece of officiating entails ignoring a host of other elements.

For instance, Villa’s home record was excellent, ending up unbeaten in 18 matches. But away, they only had the 11th-best record, their ninth defeat on the road proving one too many. Or there was the slow start: Villa finished with eight victories in their last 10 league games, but won just five of the first 13; Emery himself said they “lost the opportunity to be in the top five in the first part of the season”. Or, as they fought valiantly on three fronts, they could count the cost of the Champions League’s demands. Four of Villa’s 10 league defeats came at weekends after midweek European action. So did damaging home draws against United, Bournemouth and West Ham. Or they could look at the way they finished games: they conceded 16 goals in the final 15 minutes, perhaps the most crucial of all being Matheus Nunes’s 94th-minute winner for Manchester City last month.

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Villa were angered by Thomas Bramall’s decision to disallow a Morgan Rogers goal (PA Wire)

Maybe they could just look at an inability to beat Ipswich, two draws feeling even more wasteful since one was against 10 men. Villa may wonder, too, if an underwhelming transfer window last summer made the difference. Even the biggest buys, Amadou Onana and Ian Maatsen, may not figure in Emery’s first-choice team. Some of the other arrivals had the air of PSR deals or fringe figures; they had to wait instead for the January moves for Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford to add impetus and stardust.

Now, recruitment may entail another juggling act. Emery was adamant that Villa achieved their objective for the season by earning a place in Europe again. Yet different competitions bring different rewards. “Being in the Champions League is better because we can have more money,” said Emery.

Which has a particular pertinence. Villa surely face another juggling act in the transfer market. PSR remains a permanent consideration. There is a question whether Villa’s post-season routine now involves an annual sale before 30 June. Morgan Rogers’s dramatic improvement brings admirers. Yet the feeling was that Martinez was the likeliest departure.

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Young midfielder Morgan Rogers has been linked with a move away after a breakout season (Martin Rickett/PA Wire)

The goalkeeper seemed to be waving goodbye to Villa Park after last week’s win over Tottenham, leaving in tears. He made a rather more ignominious exit at Old Trafford, sent off, and Emery was noncommittal about whether the Argentinian would stay.

Then there is the question of Ollie Watkins: fuming, in his own words, to be benched for both legs against Paris Saint-Germain despite being the only specialist striker owned by the club. Can relations be rebuilt? If not, Watkins will be hard to replace.

While Villa can be creative in the transfer market, while they are clearly planning for different scenarios, they borrowed in the second half of the season to construct a squad they could not afford to buy... yet. And now, perhaps not at all. There is the sense that Rashford may have hoped for more than a permanent move to Villa anyway, despite the £40m option to buy him. Now, Villa may not have access to £40m, and Barcelona have gone public about their interest in the player.

Meanwhile, Asensio, after a flurry of eight goals in seven games, finished with none in 11, the last of those appearances curtailed by Martinez’s dismissal. It may be harder to fund a permanent deal for a loanee now.

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Villa have an option to sign Marcus Rashford permanently (Getty)

So, too, to sustain the impression of annual progress if they begin next season with a weaker squad, in a lesser European competition. Newcastle, who denied them fifth, may be role models, returning to the Champions League after a year away. Villa blazed more of a trail in Europe than Newcastle. And that, maybe, cost them the elusive 67th point. Yet their three-pronged assault ended with poor performances in two do-or-die games, against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup semi-final and now United. In each, it was a game too far. But as Villa wonder what might have been, there is the question of what comes next amid all the uncertainty.