Tactical analysis: Why Eddie Howe can save Newcastle from relegation | OneFootball

Newcastle United earned their first win of the Premier League season last weekend, beating Burnley 1-0 at home thanks to a goal from Callum Wilson. While they remain in the relegation zone, the result pushed them to within three points of 17th-placed Watford and safety. Eddie Howe, who took over in November, has now overseen four games. With one win and two draws, there are early signs that he could lead the club to survival.

The most obvious tactical change that has been made since Howe's appointment is with the formation. Previously wedded to a back three, be it a 3-5-2 or a 3-4-3, Newcastle have lined up in a 4-4-2 for each of their last three games. This is not a major surprise, given Howe used the same shape consistently throughout his time at Bournemouth. Gradually, his preferences are becoming clear, with a strike partnership of Callum Wilson and Joelinton supported by a much more attacking midfield selection, usually featuring two out-and-out wingers.

Under Howe, Newcastle's approach play remains quite direct. They now have two strikers to hit with the long ball, with the 6ft 1in Joelinton the main target. He will withdraw to challenge for headers, fight for loose balls, hold the ball up and lay off to supporting runners, while Wilson lingers on the shoulder of the last defender, constantly looking to hit the space behind.

Once the ball is on the deck in midfield, getting the ball quickly to Allan Saint-Maximin remains a priority. In truth, he is the only member of the team capable of taking out defenders on the dribble and single-handedly working better angles for shots. He also supplies a devastating killer pass. If not for his individual skill, the next attacking options are early balls over the top or crosses into the box for Wilson to attack, or a long shot from Jonjo Shelvey.

Outside of Saint-Maximin, there remains a dearth of combination play or creativity. This is something Howe will want to address in training, perhaps by giving more structure to the team's attacking play. Something must be done to enable Newcastle to get into better scoring positions more consistently, primarily by getting past the last line. At present, the reliance on Saint-Maximin's skill and Wilson's finishing (these two aspects are seen in combination below) means they are too predictable. Nonetheless, a new wrinkle has emerged in the addition of Miguel Almiron on the right wing.

Almiron has yet to score or set up a goal this season, and has never produced a lot in the final third. What he does have is pace, and lots of it, and his out-to-in runs from the right wing, receiving on his favoured left foot behind centre-backs distracted by the twin presence of Wilson and Joelinton, offer another way of penetrating defences.

Howe has gambled with his midfield four, starting Shelvey in the centre with Joe Willock. Neither can be considered a defensive shield. Saint-Maximin takes up the left wing role, while Almiron or Ryan Fraser start on the right wing. The aim seems to be putting as many attack-minded players on the pitch as possible, to out-score opponents and excite a restless fanbase crying out for more goals.

Of course, the risks at the other end are easy to pinpoint. Howe will want Newcastle to be more proactive defensively, and win the ball higher up the pitch. There are tentative early signs of a high press, but there have been moments where the team is caught between the new and the old – pressing and sitting back – and consequently doing neither. As seen below, Burnley were almost able to get in behind Newcastle after a failed press left their back line wide open.

Shelvey is an excellent ball-striker, and can find the front four in different ways with a single pass. At the same time, he lacks the athleticism or the awareness to protect the defence. Willock is more a runner than a playmaker, but he is similarly attack-focused. Neither central midfielder can be relied upon to fill in to the back line or track runs when necessary, and Newcastle's defence has been out-numbered regularly as a result.

Against both Brentford and Norwich, Howe's side have conceded goals because their defenders were put into 3v4 or 3v3 situations and couldn't cope with balls into their box. This is probably an issue Howe will look to solve through the January transfer window, as he doesn't appear to wholly trust Isaac Hayden, the club's best defensive midfielder, enough to start him.

Statistically, there has been an improvement in most areas. Since Howe arrived, Newcastle are enjoying more possession, generating more shots at goal, scoring more and conceding less. Their points per game has gone from 0.45 to 1.25.

Time will tell if this is about Howe's training, management and tactics, or simply a reaction by under-performing players to impress their new manager. But if the form does continue, they should hit the magical 40-point mark and give themselves a good shot at staying in the Premier League.