Supercomputers Stick With Liverpool as Man Utd Languish in 12th | OneFootball

Can Liverpool Defend Their Crown and Will Manchester United Sink Again?

The Premier League is back. The drama, the subplots, the endless debates about who will rise and who will fall. This season begins with Liverpool as defending champions under Arne Slot — and the consensus among the data models is that the Reds remain the team to beat.

But beyond that, the predictions diverge. Opta’s supercomputer sees Manchester United slumping into the bottom half once again, while Sky Sports’ model suggests a revival under Ruben Amorim. For Spurs, Palace, and the newly promoted trio, the numbers paint contrasting pictures.

So who should we believe? And what can history tell us about the likely winners and losers in 2025/26?

Liverpool: The Weight of History and the Hunger of Slot

Liverpool head into this season not just as champions, but as the league’s biggest spenders. That alone sets them apart. Arne Slot has been backed to build on his debut campaign, reinforcing a side that already looked formidable.

Opta and Sky Sports both tip the Reds to retain the title. Yet, as history shows, retaining in England is never easy. Only Manchester United and Manchester City have achieved it in the Premier League era. Liverpool’s sole title defence in 2020/21 crumbled under the weight of injuries and fatigue.

This time, though, there is a sense of momentum rather than fragility. Slot’s tactical structure — pressing with precision, possession with purpose — delivered not only results but also a clear identity. The challenge now is repeating the trick against rivals who have adapted, strengthened, and studied them all summer.

Arsenal: Nearly Men or Champions in Waiting?

For Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, second place two years running has raised as many questions as it has admiration. Are they the heirs apparent to City’s dynasty, or destined to play the role of nearly men?

Both supercomputers agree: Arsenal will again be Liverpool’s closest challengers. The margins are predicted to be narrow, suggesting this could be the most compelling title race since 2019, when City edged Liverpool by a single point.

Arteta has added depth across midfield and attack, learning from the painful collapse of 2023. But in English football, the psychological hurdle of turning second into first has proved enormous — just ask Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle of the mid-90s or Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool of 2014.

Manchester City: The End of an Era?

When Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City embark on a “rebuild”, the natural instinct is scepticism. We’ve been here before: the departures of Vincent Kompany, David Silva, Sergio Agüero — each supposedly heralding decline, each followed by fresh dominance.

But there is a sense, according to both models, that City may fall short this time. Predicted to finish third, they are still a formidable force, yet the subtle erosion of Guardiola’s core may be telling. For the first time in a decade, City enter a campaign not as overwhelming favourites.

The question is whether this is a blip, or the beginning of the end of an era.

Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa: The Contenders for the Top Four

Chelsea’s triumph in the Club World Cup has brought glamour back to Stamford Bridge, and their summer recruitment points towards another Champions League tilt. Both Opta and Sky Sports agree on a top-four finish, suggesting Enzo Maresca’s project is accelerating.

Newcastle and Aston Villa — the disruptors of last season — remain firmly in the conversation. Opta place them fifth and sixth, underlining how their European adventures haven’t derailed domestic momentum. The story of the “new elite” is here to stay.

Manchester United: Crisis or Resurrection?

This is the great schism between the data models.

The historical parallels are stark. United have been here before — finishing seventh in 2014 under David Moyes, and again in 2020 under Ole Gunnar Solskjær before rallying the following year. The club’s cycle of decline and recovery is well-worn, but the scale of this uncertainty is extraordinary.

Never in the Premier League era has United been so unpredictable: a club that could realistically finish anywhere between fifth and twelfth.

Spurs: Thomas Frank’s Project

For Tottenham, the story is similar. Opta’s projection of 14th is brutally pessimistic, while Sky Sports’ eighth-place forecast feels more plausible.

Thomas Frank has already shown hints of tactical flexibility and defensive organisation, qualities Spurs have lacked for years. Their penalty shoot-out defeat to PSG in the UEFA Super Cup may sting, but it suggests progress.

The truth probably lies between the extremes — a mid-table side capable of troubling the top eight but still a distance from the Champions League.

Crystal Palace, Brighton and Bournemouth: The Swing Clubs

Opta’s boldest call is Crystal Palace in seventh. Under Oliver Glasner, Palace have already lifted the FA Cup and Community Shield, and their trajectory suggests they are capable of gatecrashing Europe. Sky Sports, however, are unconvinced, pushing them back into mid-table obscurity.

Brighton and Bournemouth also highlight the models’ disparities. Opta see both comfortably in the top half; Sky Sports see regression, particularly for Bournemouth, hit hard by sales. For clubs of this stature, fine margins — an injury crisis, a dip in form, a poor January window — can define the entire season.

Relegation: Promoted Sides Under Pressure

Perhaps the least surprising prediction is the fate of the newly promoted clubs. Opta has Burnley, Leeds, and Sunderland all going straight back down. If that proves true, it would be the third successive season where all promoted sides failed to survive.

Sky Sports at least offer hope for Leeds, who they predict to survive at Wolves’ expense. Wolves, in financial difficulty and with an ageing squad, are tipped to be dragged into trouble.

History is instructive here: promoted sides often need one of two things to survive — either a talismanic goalscorer (think Ivan Toney for Brentford) or an unbreakable defensive unit (Sheffield United in 2019/20). Without either, the Premier League’s brutal churn proves unforgiving.

Why the Data Disagrees

Both Opta and Sky Sports use 10,000 simulations, factoring in bookmaker odds, historical performance, recent results and transfer activity. The differences arise in weighting. Opta’s algorithms may lean on historical data and squad depth, while Sky Sports appear to account more heavily for managerial change and summer recruitment.

This explains why United and Spurs — clubs undergoing tactical overhauls — appear so differently across the two models. Algorithms are coldly rational, but football is a sport defined by irrational surges of form, confidence and chaos.

The Verdict

So, who should we believe?

Liverpool look well-placed to defend their title, but history suggests it will not come easily. Arsenal remain the most likely challengers, with City in transition. Chelsea’s revival and Newcastle’s resilience point towards a fierce fight for Champions League places.

United and Spurs are the great enigmas: teams who could soar or sink. At the bottom, promoted clubs once again face daunting odds.

The only certainty, as ever with the Premier League, is uncertainty. Predictions are seductive, but the game itself has a habit of ripping them up.