Stat suggests Arsenal can’t lose the league from here, but are the stats deceiving? | OneFootball

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·2 April 2023

Stat suggests Arsenal can’t lose the league from here, but are the stats deceiving?

Article image:Stat suggests Arsenal can’t lose the league from here, but are the stats deceiving?

Arsenal beat Leeds United 4-1 yesterday to maintain their lead at the top of the Premier League title, and potentially reach an important milestone.

The Gunners are now passed the 70-point mark, which seems significant in that we’ve never seen a team with more than 70 points at this stage of the season fail to go on and win the title.

Arsenal are on 72 points, eight clear of reigning champions Manchester City, though Pep Guardiola’s men have a game in hand and just thrashed Liverpool 4-1 without top scorer Erling Haaland due to injury.

Despite Arsenal’s strong position, many people still feel City are the favourites due to their strength in depth and experience of getting over the line in a title race, but does the stat below show we’re underestimating Mikel Arteta’s league leaders?

Still, we dug a little deeper to look at another important factor to take into account – how far ahead these teams were of second place after 29 games.

Arsenal’s lead is potentially only five points if City win their game in hand, and that’s not as comfortable a lead as most of these former champions had.

82 Liverpool 19/20 – 25 points clear 78 Man City 17/18 – 18 points clear 75 Chelsea 05/06 – 8 points clear 74 Chelsea 04/05 – 11 points clear 74 Man Utd 12/13 – 10 points clear 73 Arsenal 03/04 – 9 points clear 72 Man Utd 06/07 – 6 points clear 71 Man City 18/19 – 1 point clear

Those Liverpool and Man City sides at the top absolutely ran away with the league in 2019/20 and 2017/18, respectively, so there’s really no comparison with what we’re seeing here, which is a genuine two-horse race. Arsenal simply won’t be able to afford that level of relaxation that those Liverpool and City sides had, as they strolled to the finish line.

This season is perhaps more comparable to Manchester United’s victory in 2006/07 – it was their first title win in a while, and it was inspired by a new generation of young talents like Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney against Jose Mourinho’s more experienced serial winners at Chelsea.

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Of course, a big difference is that they were managed by the great Sir Alex Ferguson and it had only been four years since their last title win, whereas this Arsenal side are looking to end a 19-year wait.

No title race is exactly like another, but the numbers are starting to look encouraging for Arsenal.

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