Starring Newcastle United and Crystal Palace – Fine margins at play | OneFootball

Newcastle United visit Crystal Palace on Wednesday.

A match between seventh bottom and sixth top.

Newcastle United looking to seal a top six place and European football next season, whilst Crystal Palace seeking the points to help seal another season in the Premier League.

One thing that always intrigues me is the refusal of so many football supporters, especially those who are Newcastle United fans, to acknowledge just how big a factor luck and very fine margins play.

Both in individual matches and indeed, how a season turns out overall.

One statistic intrigued me last season where Newcastle United were concerned.

This was the final 2022/23 Premier League table:

It was universally accepted that Newcastle United in finishing fourth and qualifying for the Champions League had experienced an excellent season.

Whilst for Tottenham, it was widely talked about as a disaster, finishing eighth and no European football to look forward to at all.

However, if only two results had been reversed… if Tottenham had won both matches against Newcastle United, rather than losing them both last season.

The final Premier League table would have ended up with Liverpool fourth on 67 points and playing in the Champions League. Tottenham fifth on 66 points and playing in the Europa League, with then Newcastle United only sixth on 65 points and sneaking into the Europa League with Spurs.

As it happens, Newcastle United absolutely deserved those 2-1 away and 6-1 home victories over Tottenham last season, however, it is quite made how just two results could have changed everything.

In the build up to Newcastle’s next match, it is a Crystal Palace stat that has caught my eye.

This is the current 2023/24 Premier League table:

As you can see, Crystal Palace are now in a fairly comfortable position eight points clear of relegation, needing only probably only five or six points more to make absolutely sure, although they may even already have reached safety, helped by the points deductions for Everton and Forest.

However, when you look at the story of this Palace season I find it fascinating / bizarre.

In the entire first half of this season, Crystal Palace won only four of their 19 Premier League matches.

Palace won away at what look relegation certainties Sheffield United and Burnley, with their only other two PL victories a narrow 3-2 home win over Wolves and a shock 1-0 victory at Old Trafford.

Until last weekend, Palace’s victories in the second half of the season had only been home wins against relegation certainties Sheffield United and Burnley, plus a home win against another relegation contender, Brentford.

That was it, until Crystal Palace pulled off that really shock 1-0 win at Anfield, when as well as playing to a decent level, all the luck and fine margins went their way, plus their keeper having one of those matches.

However, the bottom line is that really, Palace’s survival this season has very much depended on those matches against Burnley and Sheffield United. They represent exactly half of all their wins so far this PL season.

If those four results had gone the other way, Crystal Palace would be rock bottom now on 21 points, Sheffield United second bottom on 22 points, Luton 25 points in third bottom, whilst Burnley actually outside the relegation zone on 26 points, fourth bottom and level on points with Forest.

What I would also say, is that whilst of course it was an excellent performance and result for them against Liverpool, Crystal Palace aren’t suddenly world beaters.

The story of their season shows that if Newcastle United play well and take a decent proportion of chances created, we will win on Wednesday night. Palace did well at Anfield but in many ways you can also say that Liverpool beat themselves, playing below their levels and some woeful finishing, Eddie Howe and his players simply need to protect against that and not give any gufts away at the back.