St. Louis City have started strong. So why is Taylor Twellman concerned? | OneFootball

On paper, Olof Mellberg has made a completely acceptable start to life as St. Louis City's new manager.

The third-year MLS club had gone unbeaten in its first four matches before falling to a 1-0 defeat at the Philadelphia Union. And that loss Saturday night was hardly a shameful result given Philly's history and how the Union have started their season.

But scratch a little deeper and the tactics Mellberg's group have employed have been a little extreme, even in an era when possession is considered far less valuable than it used to be. And it's something lead Apple TV analyst -- and St. Louis native -- Taylor Twellman has commented on at intervals, including last night after the loss at the Union.

No, you're not reading that wrong. That's a meager 27% possession Mellberg's team held, against a Union organization that was one of the first in MLS to lead the charge way from possession-based play.

Now in fairness, St. Louis played the latter stages of the second half down a man after Eduard Lowen received his second booking in the 66th minute. Even so, Stl City are posting the kind of meager possession numbers we just don't see very often in a league with this parity, having had 35% or less in four consecutive matches.

Worth the pressure

Twellman has previously discussed how Mellberg appears very heavily focused on his players' fitness and ability to maintain a higher-than-average workrate. His primary focus is on controlling the game while out of possession, more or less by harassing the hell out of opponents (in a structured way).

That's a reasonable choice when you can create real menace from the minority of the time you 're on the ball. But in Twellman's view, St. Louis have rarely been competent enough with the ball, which adds to the share of the game they spend defending to the point where it becomes untennable.

Even before Saturday, St. Louis had the second-lowest level of possession ahead of only Minnesota. And the Loons are much of a throwback defensively: While they counter with pace, they are content to sit in a much deeper block.

Lowest % possession through MLS Matchday 4

The data is more generous toward St. Louis than Twellman. Even after the possessionally lopsided Philadelphia defeat, Mellberg's group has an expected-goals differential of basically zero.

But it's also early Spring. The amount of xG you allow an opponent who has 70% possession is going to be a lot higher in June than in March, because the weather gets hotter and the spaces get harder to close down.

This is something Twellman deeply understands, and that Mellberg will have to learn for the near-future. However, if MLS flips its schedule to fall in line with the European club calendar after the 2026 World Cup, placing this kind of workload on players may be less difficult. And perhaps we'll have a host of teams coming around to Mellberg's line of thinking.