Sorry Philadelphia Union Fans, Tai Baribo Won't Win the Golden Boot. Here's Why: | OneFootball

It's Tai Baribo's world through the first three weeks of the MLS season, and the rest of us are just living in it.

The Israel international scored his sixth goal of the season in the Philadelphia Union's 2-0 win at the New England Revolution on Saturday night. And that's more than double the total of the next-closest marksman through the first three matchdays, which is likely to keep him as oddsmakers' heavy favorite the next time betting options for the golden boot are posted.

Including Leagues Cup, Baribo has 22 goals in his last 30 appearances in all competitions, a volume of production that would win the MLS Golden Boot as often as it wouldn't. But Baribo most likely won't be MLS' top scorer when it's all said and done, for a reasons.

One one these factors by itself might be small enough to overcome. But combine them and there's reason to be shortselling the hot start, much in the way Cristian Arango and Jordan Morris didn't build on their early sprints out of the gate in recent seasons.

1. A streaky forward in a streaky system

Let's get one thing clear: Calling Baribo streaky does not mean what he has produced is fluky or lucky. He's a capable top-tier MLS striker, and will probably continue to be a factor for the Union so long as he's healthy.

But he's also demonstrated a streakiness throughout his senior club career, one that can be exaggerated even further by Philadelphia's frenetic game model.

While no one expects Baribo to average two goals per match as he's done through Matchday 3, the elite Golden Boot contenders often find a way to get at least one goal even when matches aren't going in their favor. And Baribo runs cold as often as he runs hot.

Through his last 26 starts, he has more multiple-goal games (seven) than he has one-goal games (six), while going scoreless in nine of his starts.

2. The Union paid $3 million to sign Bruno Damiani

Philadelphia isn't nearly as free-spending as some MLS clubs. But for Union sporting director Ernst Tanner, the reported $3 million spent to sign Uruguayan striker Bruno Damiani was still a club record.

That likely means manager Bradley Carnell will give the former Nacional man every opportunity to earn one of the two starting striker roles in the Union's system over the long term. That would leave Mikael Uhre and Baribo to battle for the other spot. And while Baribo has been far more productive in terms of finishing product recently, Uhre does a lot of unheralded dirty work that is necessary in the tactics the Union use.

3. Baribo doesn't take penalties for Philly

So long as attacking midfielder Daniel Gazdag remains on the Union roster, he will remain the club's penalty taker, given his extremely high rate of conversion. And that could put a damper on Baribo's goal-scoring ceiling, even if he does lead the Union in terms of total goal production.

It's not impossible to win the Golden Boot without being your team's designated penalty taker. But it's much tougher. Only Denis Bouanga (2023) and Bradley Wright-Phillips (2016) have accomplished that feat in the last 10 years. And Bouanga's 20-goal campaign in 2023 was the second-lowest output to win the Golden Boot in a full season since 2012.