Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Interesting on Newcastle United in advance of Everton match | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at St James’ Park against Everton.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Everton game.

“How about this for a quality Premier League starting XI: Pope, Trippier, Botman, Lascelles, Livramento, Joelinton, Tonali, Miley, Almiron, Gordon, Wilson.

“Good, eh?

“Well, they are all missing for Tuesday night. I’m not sure I’ve seen anything like that when an actual first XI are all unavailable.

“But despite missing an entire first XI Newcastle are still odds-on to beat Everton at 5/6 with Sky Bet which says something for the current state the Toffees find themselves in. They are currently on a joint-club record run of 12 games without a win after the 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth.

“In a season where Premier League remain producing goals at a rate never seen in this league with the per game average still trending at a record level of 3.24 goals per 90 minutes, Everton are swimming against that tide.

“A relatively stout defence, added to misfiring strikers, have seen their total match goals average stand at 2.45 – it’s the lowest in the Premier League and the only team to average under that key 2.5 goals line.

“No team have been involved in more under 2.5 goals games this season than Everton with 15 of their 29 going against the grain of goals and delivering two or fewer goals. Newcastle’s games are averaging with 4.33 total match goals across their last 15 matches, hence the high goal expectancy here – but Everton tend to drag the goal return down. I think the 5/4 with Sky Bet for under 2.5 goals could be a shrewd play.

“Score Prediction: Newcastle 1 Everton 1”

A lot of good stuff in there, as usual, when it comes to what the Sky Sports expert says.

An intriguing game which, as the Sky Sports man says, could largely rest on what kind of team Eddie Howe can put out. For those who claim that Newcastle United’s ‘luck’ with injuries is no worse than any other PL club this season, well quite clearly this is not the case.

The only player he may have got wrong when it comes to definitely missing tonight is Kieran Trippier, with rumours that he could return to action. Though if that is the case, then the Sky Sports expect can put Targett in at left-back in this unavailable team and switch Tino to right-back.

Everton are in shocking form and it is 108 days since they won in the Premier League, back on 16 December 2023, since then picking up only five points from 12 PL matches.

The Sky Sports man predicts that Everton will drag Newcastle United down and make this a more boring game than NUFC fans have become accustomed to.

Indeed, Everton under Sean Dyche have proved to be very much the most tedious PL team this season, his negative tactics leading to only 71 goals (scoring 30 and conceding 41) in their 29 PL games, by far the lowest in the top tier. Whilst Newcastle’s 29 PL matches have easily produced the most (114) goals, scoring 63 and conceding 51.

Eddie Howe’s side have scored 15 (and conceded 12) in their last five Premier League matches at St James’ Park and the Sky Sports man predicting just the one home goal looks unlikely.

Whilst Lewis Jones hasn’t predicted an NUFC home defeat this time (he did predict West Ham would win on Saturday), it is worth pointing out that in 44 Premier League games at SJP, Eddie Howe has only lost to four clubs, those having been Liverpool (x3), Man City (x2) and once each to Arsenal and Forest.

In 29 months, six times a very good PL team has won at SJP, whilst Forest are the exception, an ok team but doing a real smash and grab on the break.

If Newcastle don’t give up any defensive gifts today to a poor Everton side, I think Newcastle United can still win by a couple of goals, even if Eddie Howe is missing a full team’s worth of players.

Newcastle United confirmed Premier League matches to mid-April 2024:

Tuesday 2 April 2024 – Newcastle v Everton (7.30pm) TNT Sports

Saturday 6 April 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 13 April 2024 – Newcastle v Spurs (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Wednesday 24 April 2024 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (8pm)

Saturday 27 April 2024 – Newcastle v Sheff Utd (3pm)

Saturday 4 May 2024 – Burnley v Newcastle

Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton

Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)

Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)