Should FPL managers sell Andrew Robertson, Pedro Neto and Leon Bailey? | BigManBakar’s Gameweek 3 preview | OneFootball

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·18 August 2022

Should FPL managers sell Andrew Robertson, Pedro Neto and Leon Bailey? | BigManBakar’s Gameweek 3 preview

Article image:Should FPL managers sell Andrew Robertson, Pedro Neto and Leon Bailey? | BigManBakar’s Gameweek 3 preview

The brilliant @BigManBakar shares his Gameweek 3 preview, answering some key questions of the week - powered by Fantasy Football Hub data and his stellar FPL record.

You can find Bakar's Gameweek 3 team reveal here. And see the team reveals of all our experts here.


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Q) What to do with Andrew Robertson? Is it worth using two free transfers to swap him to Luis Diaz?

In this section, I also cover Reece James (£6.1m), Marc Cucurella (£5.0m) and Ivan Perisic (£5.4m).

I watched the Liverpool v Crystal Palace game the other day and my first thought after reading my Twitter timeline post-match was to stop people from knee-jerking into an Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) to Luis Diaz (£8.0) transfer.

I noticed that Robertson was constantly getting into goalscoring positions and looked a threat every single time Liverpool attacked.

I expect both him and Diaz to score similarly and just because Diaz outscored Robertson on a one-off occasion, it doesn’t mean that Robertson becomes a bad option overnight.

He still remains an excellent pick and one who I expect to get plenty of points in the weeks to come – Liverpool have been given a greater than 50% chance of recording a clean sheet in three of their next five fixtures by the bookmakers.

Article image:Should FPL managers sell Andrew Robertson, Pedro Neto and Leon Bailey? | BigManBakar’s Gameweek 3 preview

However, having given it some second thought, I am beginning to warm to the merits of a potential switch from Robertson to Diaz.

I say that because even though I expect both him and Diaz to score similarly, I also expect someone like James, Perisic or Cucurella to potentially outscore the likes of Pedro Neto (£5.5m) by a significant margin.

So something like Diaz and James/Perisic/Cucurella should be better than Robertson and Neto over the long term.

This also allows you to have an £8.0m midfield slot, which can be useful with the number of options available in the price bracket.

The £5.0m-6.0m midfield price bracket is something which I personally do not want to rely on.

James would be my first choice to bring in if you don’t own him - only Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) recorded a better expected goal involvement (xGi) per 90 among defenders than him last season.

We have seen time and again how explosive an asset James can be – I would pay even £6.5m for him. He's also taking a share of the set pieces which also adds to his appeal.

Despite being a defender, James is already first for xGi and big chance involvements among all Chelsea players this season.

Chelsea are scheduled to play Leeds, Leicester, Southampton, West Ham and Fulham in their next five fixtures - I see plenty of points in the weeks to come.

Cucurella and Perisic

If you already own James, then both Cucurella and Perisic have the potential to go big.

Tuchel's quotes regarding Cucurella were very positive: "Cucurella has more of a feeling for the rhythm and intensity of the matches than Chilwell at the moment.

"We keep Chilwell for substitutions because he’s an intense runner but after his long injury he lacks a bit of rhythm."

Cucurella was also on corners against Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 2, which could bode well for him in bonus accumulation going forward.

The Spaniard accumulated an eye-catching 57 touches in the final third as well - the most of any outfielder in the game.

The only question mark remains regarding his ability to start, with midweek fixtures coming up.

There is an argument that Thiago Silva (£5.5m), Kalidou Koulibaly (£5.5m) and Wesley Fofana (£4.5m) - should he sign from Leicester -  could be the partnership Tuchel prefers going forward.

What I like about Cucurella here is his ability to play left centre back as well.

I don't think Silva will play matches in midweek at his age, so Tuchel can choose to play Chilwell as the wing back and Cucurella as the left-sided centre-back on such occasions.

Article image:Should FPL managers sell Andrew Robertson, Pedro Neto and Leon Bailey? | BigManBakar’s Gameweek 3 preview

Perisic is probably the differential with the highest upside that could come into play in Gameweek 3.

Spurs are playing in the early kick-off this Gameweek, so there is every chance we get early team news before the deadline.

If he starts, I see Perisic as a big differential with crazy upside and a good run of fixtures to come.

So far, I'm yet to come across a single predicted lineup on the Spurs fan forums which doesn't have Perisic in it.

The fact Sessegnon had a poor game and Perisic delivered the crucial assist at the end should work in his favour.

There is a fair argument that Perisic could be rotated in at least one of the fixtures after Gameweek 4 due to the midweek fixture congestion (Spurs have a Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday turnaround) but there is a 15 pointer somewhere in there that is waiting to happen.

Q) Who to captain in Gameweek 3?

I would prefer Mohamed Salah (£13.0m).

Liverpool have scored 11 goals in the previous three games against Manchester United, while Salah has five in his previous three against them.

United are a team woefully low on confidence - protests have been planned ahead of the fixture by the fans and if Liverpool get an early goal, this could turn into a rout.

With Darwin Nunez (£9.0m) suspended, Roberto Firmino (£8.0m) should start, which should also work in Salah's favour and he should hog the majority of the goal involvements.

Both Salah and Gabriel Jesus (£8.1m) have been given a 45% chance to score by the bookmakers this week but I think the Egyptian has a slightly higher ceiling as a result of the extra goal and clean sheet point he can get because of his classification as a midfielder.

The bookmakers have also given Liverpool a 40% chance of scoring two or more goals, as compared to 38% to Arsenal this gameweek.

Erling Haaland (£11.7m) is a contender as well but I'm not personally considering him because Newcastle's defensive statistics this calendar year have been very solid.

Article image:Should FPL managers sell Andrew Robertson, Pedro Neto and Leon Bailey? | BigManBakar’s Gameweek 3 preview

Mohamed Salah. Picture by Getty Images

Q) Who is the best Nunez replacement?

Jesus would be my first choice if you don't have him.

About 666,000 FPL managers have transferred him in already and his ownership of 78% is rising.

Such incredible underlying statistics, coupled with an astronomical FPL ownership before he plays two promoted sides in succession, means Jesus has to be a priority transfer if you don't own him already.

If you own Jesus, then I would go with Ivan Toney (£7.1m).

With the variety of forward options this season, I feel as if Toney is going under the radar. He's returned in both of his matches so far and put to rest any debate about Brentford's creativity without Eriksen.

Brentford have signed Mikkel Damsgaard as well, which means Toney has plenty of creative options behind him.

Q) What to do with Leon Bailey and Pedro Neto?

A lot of us FPL managers who banked on Leon Bailey's (£4.9m) pre-season form have now been hit with the reality that he is no longer first choice.

Despite the fact Steven Gerrard talked him up in the pre-match press conference, Bailey fell victim to a tactical tweak which resulted in Gerrard opting to play two strikers up top in a diamond formation.

Sign up to the Hub to find out what Bakar thinks you should do with Bailey, Neto and more key dilemmas for Gameweek 3.

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