Serbia v Spain Tips: Back 20/1 card double in Nations League | OneFootball

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Robin Le Normand: Carded in five of his last 10 international starts

The UEFA Nations League kicks off on Thursday and our football props column has focused on holders Spain's trip to Serbia, offering up 20/1 and 4/1 shots...

Serbia v SpainThursday 5 September, 19:45

Newly-crowned European champions Spain begin the defence of their Nations League title with a tricky trip to Belgrade on Thursday night.

That will make the journey without three members of the starting XI which beat England 2-1 in Berlin in July - keeper Unai Simon is injured, while captain Alvaro Morata and Euro 2024 player of the tournament Rodri are both suspended.

You might think that offers Serbia plenty of hope but they have problems of their own, most notably up front where they will be without Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic, while star midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is also missing.

You could argue that has prevented some awkward decisions being made. After all, Serbia scored only one goal at Euro 2024, managed just six shots against England and only five against Denmark in a game they had to win (and didn't).

However, Serbia still look a weaker side without those players and Spain's greater strength in depth should get them through.

In the props markets, though, I'm going for a dual approach.

Bet 1: Robin Le Normand & Strahinja Pavlovic to be shown a card

First up, a player-card double.

Serbia have long been high card colllectors and they received eight in their three games at the Euros, while Spain's 17 in seven matches also gives punters encouragement.

The referee is Dutchman Serdar Gozubuyuk, a man who has shown 4+ cards in five of his last seven competitive internationals. The Dutchman's figures in the UEFA club competitions have also been on the rise in recent years - 18 of his last 24 such appointments have delivered 4+ cards.

I'm therefore happy to take a shot at a 20/1 double with Robin Le Normand and Strahinja Pavlovic the men making the betslip.

Le Normand was mentioned in this column during the Euros when he picked up two cards. He's now been booked in five of his last 10 internationals which isn't the biggest surprise when you consider he was carded 17 times for Real Sociedad last season.

He recently joined Atletico Madrid - and was booked on debut.

Pavlovic also has a strong card record at this level, being carded in 13 of his 38 international appearances.

He's likely going to have to deal with Dani Olmo and Nico Williams in this one and both are players who are tricky and capable of getting the centre-back off balance and into trouble.

Bet 2: Le Normand, Cucurella, Williams & Milenkovic to commit 1+ foul each

My other bet will be a data-based fouls play.

I'm a little concerned about the possibility for team news surprises - you may want to lace your bet only after the line-ups are confirmed.

However, I don't have that luxury.

Le Normand and Marc Cucurella were both regular foulers at Euro 2024 and both get the nod for 1+ foul.

Le Normand has landed this in eight of his last nine internationals, while Cucrella has managed it in all eight starts for Spain.

Nico Williams has also delivered on this bet in five of his last six and his price of 4/5 helps boost the odds of our Bet Builder.

Finally, on the other side of the ball, let's add Nikola Milenkovic for 1+ foul too.

4/1.

Let's go 50-50 about the stakes across the two selections.

More Nations League: Nine bets for Thursday's nine games!

Recommended bets

Back Robin Le Normand and Strahinja Pavlovic to be shown a card @ around 20/1Back Robin Le Normand, Marc Cucurella, Nico Williams and Nikola Milenkovic all to commit 1+ foul @ around 4/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 52pts Returned: 74.69pts P/L: +22.69pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts