Saturday Premier League Tips: Back tight Merseyside derby plus points for Brentford and Man Utd | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

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Everton v Liverpool (Sat, 12:30)

This lunchtime derby will be a quick turnaround for both teams after playing on Wednesday night. It could be attack v a very compact defence given the derby element and looking at last season's matches with Sean Dyche in-charge.

Everton had just 23% possession in both games with the respective home sides running out 2-0 winners both times. That's very much in-keeping with Everton's performances this season as they have had the lowest possession in the league with just 40%.

It's been a low-scoring derby for a while now with the last five going under 2.5 goals and producing just 10 goals - 2.0 per-game. At Goodison Park things have been even more cagey with four 0-0s in the last six years. Despite Liverpool winning 11 of 14 games this season, they have controlled the majority of their games by being efficient in-front of goal and tight at the back. Only three Liverpool matches have finished over 3.5 goals (21%).

Everton, meanwhile, have seen nine of their 14 games go under 3.5 goals including five of seven at Goodison Park.

Brentford v Newcastle (Sat, 15:00)

With the best home record in the Premier League, Brentford look underrated as underdogs against Newcastle. The Bees have won six and drawn one of their seven home games, scoring the most goals with 22 - an average of 3.14 per-game. It's deserved too with Brentford creating the second most expected goals on home turf.

Newcastle have blown hot and cold so far this season to sit 10th in the table, scoring just 17 goals in 14 games. This despite having played six of the bottom eight. Statistically they've not looked great, registering the sixth fewest shots in the league (12.5 per-game), while conceding the sixth most (14.7).

The Magpies are creating the sixth fewest expected goals, whilst they are third biggest overachievers defensively, having conceded 17 goals yet 23.61 expected goals. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa have scored 15 goals between them this season and could be in for more here.

Man Utd v Nottingham Forest (Sat, 17:30)

Before the International break Nottingham Forest were third in the Premier League. Since then they've lost three of their last four games to fall to sixth and, based on expected points, they are ranked ninth so far this season. After 14 games it paints a better picture of their true ability and statistically it doesn't match up with their lofty ranking.

Forest have the second lowest possession in the league with just 40.8%, only having the 11th most shots whilst conceding the eighth most. As a result, going forward they are creating the seventh fewest expected goals and have scored the fifth fewest. Given they've only managed the 5th fewest goals from open play (8), they play on very fine margins considering seven of their goals have come from set-pieces and penalties, which long-term is probably unsustainable.

It's very early days for Ruben Amorim's Man Utd but long-term there should be an improvement given his success at multiple clubs in Portugal against the big two of Benfica and Porto, firstly winning a League Cup with Braga then two titles and two more cups for Sporting Lisbon. Utd were 1.40 in this fixture last season so it seems a bit of an overreaction to Nottingham Forest's start to the campaign to now see Utd at 1.70 under a manager with a high ceiling.

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